Deviance Voronoi residuals improve earthquake insurance risk assessment.
problem Assessing earthquake insurance risk using spatio-temporal point process models.
method Extended Voronoi residuals and created simulation-based approach.
result Proposed formula for country-wide minimum capital test.
Extends matrix factorization for deviance-based losses with GLM theory.
problem Improving data loss models beyond squared error.
method Adapts GLM theory to matrix factorization for deviance losses.
result Strong consistency and robustness of the proposed decomposition.
Proposes KCDC for causal inference from observational data.
problem Discovering causal relationships among variables.
method KCDC method based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result Outperforms existing methods on real-world datasets.
Deviance-style normalization for sparse, jointly overdispersed count matrices
problem Jointly overdispersed count matrices
method Dirichlet-multinomial deviance residualization
result Preserves exact sparsity, evaluates in constant time, recovers multinomial residual
New method calculates partial information for Gaussian systems based on dependency constraints.
problem Quantifying information sharing in multivariate Gaussian systems.
method Constructing maximum entropy models based on dependency constraints and deriving closed-form solutions.
result Closed-form solutions for Gaussian systems show differences in redundancy and synergy estimates compared to existing methods.
New method detects latent common causes from observational data.
problem Detecting latent common causes in observational data.
method Modified causal discovery algorithms to detect latent common causes.
result Successfully detects latent common causes in various noise regimes and real data.
This paper aims to review the methodology behind the generalized linear models which are used in analyzing the actuarial situations instead of the ordinary multiple linear regression. We introduce how to assess the adequacy of the model which includes comparing nested models using the deviance and the scaled deviance. …
The paper addresses insurance pricing by improving machine learning models and metrics.
problem Lack of balance and confusion in insurance model performance metrics.
method Introduces autocalibration and Tweedie deviance minimization for insurance pricing models.
result Autocalibration corrects bias and ensures balance on local scales.
Framework monitors insurance pricing models for drift and recalibration.
problem Maintaining predictive performance of pricing models in evolving insurance portfolios.
method Formalizes deviance loss and Murphy's score, studies Gini score, develops monitoring framework.
result Framework guides decisions on refitting or recalibrating pricing models.
New method uses kernel deviance measures to discover causal relationships in heterogeneous data.
problem Discovering causal relationships in complex, heterogeneous datasets.
method KIIM-HT, a novel score measure based on heterogeneous transformations of RKHS embeddings.
result KIIM-HT outperforms previous methods in causal discovery tasks.
Paper introduces NICc for fast cluster-based validation of prediction models.
problem Validation of prediction models on clustered data.
method Derived NICc to approximate leave-one-cluster-out deviance for standard regression models.
result NICc provides more accurate model size and variable selection, especially with strong clustering.
EGO-MDA identifies optimal spectral-bands for process discrimination.
problem Optimal spectral-bands for process discrimination.
method EGO-MDA, an unsupervised method using EGO and Mixture Discriminant Analysis.
result EGO-MDA achieves at least 70% improvement in median deviance.
This paper generalizes beta divergence beyond its classical form associated with power variance functions of Tweedie models. Generalized form is represented by a compact definite integral as a function of variance function of the exponential dispersion model. This compact integral form simplifies derivations of many pr…
Bayesian model clusters brain activity time series.
problem Heterogeneous multivariate time series in brain imaging.
method Group-based Bayesian mixture of smoothing splines with covariate effects.
result Distinct brain activity patterns identified.
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
problem Calibrating parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses.
method Federated learning framework using Tweedie GLMs and distributed optimization.
result Federated learning recovers comparable index coefficients under moderate heterogeneity.
Study optimizes CANN for actuarial tasks using RSM.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for neural networks in actuarial science.
method Factorial design and response surface methodology (RSM).
result Reduced hyperparameter optimization from 288 to 188, achieving near-optimal performance.
Two new algorithms reduce feature space while preserving non-linear relationships.
problem High-dimensional data and overfitting issues.
method Bias-variance analysis for non-linear transformations and generalized linear models.
result Competitive performance on regression and classification tasks.
Introduces Soft-SVM for binary classification bridging logistic and SVM.
problem Data separability issues in binary classification.
method Soft-SVM regression using convex relaxation of hinge loss with softness and class-separation parameters.
result Soft-SVM performs well in classification and prediction errors.
Develops a GMM method to estimate roughness in stochastic volatility models.
problem Estimating roughness in stochastic volatility models with fractional Brownian motion.
method GMM approach for log-normal models with integrated variance and noisy realized variance.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimator with bias correction.
Dynamic model captures spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal volatility effects.
problem Analyzing volatility in spatial and temporal networks.
method Dynamic spatiotemporal and network ARCH model with common factors, Bayesian estimation.
result Model captures strong spatial/network interactions and spillover effects.
Bayesian CART models improve insurance claims frequency prediction and interpretation.
problem Improving accuracy and interpretability in insurance pricing models.
method Introducing Bayesian CART models for claims frequency, implementing MCMC algorithm for posterior tree exploration, and using DIC for model selection.
result Bayesian CART models can better classify policy-holders into risk groups.
New meta-score EPP interprets model performance differences.
problem Lack of interpretable benchmarks for model performance.
method Elo-based Predictive Power (EPP) meta-score, logistic regression.
result EPP scores have probabilistic interpretation and can be compared between data sets.
Mixture model-based clustering has become an increasingly popular data analysis technique since its introduction over fifty years ago, and is now commonly utilized within a family setting. Families of mixture models arise when the component parameters, usually the component covariance (or scale) matrices, are decompose…
Bregman perspective on CART provides a unified framework for impurity measures.
problem Unifying impurity measures in CART
method Bregman divergence approach
result Unified framework for impurity measures
Paper proposes KIIM to infer causal relationships from data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from data is challenging.
method KIIM captures higher order statistics of conditional distributions.
result KIIM outperforms existing methods in causal inference.
A novel spatio-temporal graph neural network with a learnable Tweedie head improves vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
problem Accurate vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
method A model-agnostic learnable Tweedie head attached to ST-GNN backbones.
result The proposed head consistently improves RMSE across multiple ST-GNN backbones, especially on non-zero events.
Study compares machine learning models for insurance pricing, including neural networks and GLMs.
problem Improving insurance pricing models using machine learning techniques.
method Benchmark study using four insurance datasets, comparing GLMs, GBM, FFNN, and CANN.
result CANNs provide better performance than GLMs and GBM, especially for frequency and severity modeling.
Improved fMRI analysis models enhance classification performance and select relevant brain regions.
problem Inaccurate selection of relevant brain components in MVPA models.
method Hybrid Sparsity-Ranked LASSO (JSRL) method integrating component-level and voxel-level activity.
result JSRL models achieve up to 51.7% improvement in cross-validated deviance R2 and 7.3% improvement in cross-validated AUC. Proposes provenance and pseudo-provenance for automated test generation.
problem Invalidation of provenance in generated tests.
method Annotation of generated tests with provenance trails and pseudo-provenance.
result Validates the reliability of generated tests and their relation to seeds.
Survey of Machine Learning Testing: Properties, Components, and Trends.
problem Challenges in testing machine learning models.
method Comprehensive review of 144 ML testing papers.
result Identification of research challenges and directions.
A family of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) kernel two-sample tests is introduced. Members of the test family are called Block-tests or B-tests, since the test statistic is an average over MMDs computed on subsets of the samples. The choice of block size allows control over the tradeoff between test power and computatio…
USP test improves on Pearson's chi-squared and G-test for independence.
problem Deficiencies in Pearson's chi-squared and G-test for independence. method USP test based on U-statistic estimator of population dependence measure. result USP test controls size, handles small cell counts, and detects minimal violations of independence.
E-C2ST uses E-values for high-dimensional data two-sample tests.
problem Statistical testing for high-dimensional data.
method Combines split likelihood ratio tests and predictive independence tests, using E-values for anytime-valid sequential tests.
result E-C2ST achieves enhanced statistical power by partitioning datasets into multiple batches.
Cheap permutation tests speed up distribution testing without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Efficiently testing distribution differences and independence.
method Group datapoints into bins and permute only these bins, using stored sufficient statistics.
result Cheap permutation tests maintain the accuracy and optimality of standard tests but are significantly faster.
Paper proposes a chi-square test for distance correlation.
problem Testing distance correlation is computationally expensive.
method Proposes a chi-square test for distance correlation, non-parametric, fast, applicable to various metrics.
result Chi-square test exhibits similar power to permutation test and can be valid and universally consistent for testing independence.
The paper tests properties of multiple distributions with limited samples.
problem Testing properties of multiple distributions with few samples.
method Designing testers for uniformity, identity, and closeness testing under specific conditions.
result Sample optimal testers for uniformity, identity, and closeness testing are provided.
Optimizes two-sample tests for non-Euclidean domains using spectral regularization.
problem Optimizing two-sample tests for non-Euclidean domains.
method Spectral regularization of MMD test to achieve minimax optimality.
result Proposes a spectral regularization method that improves test optimality.
DRIFT uses RL to automate functional software testing efficiently.
problem Efficient and reliable automated software testing.
method DRIFT employs Q-learning with Graph Neural Networks on symbolic UI representations.
result DRIFT can robustly test software functionalities in a fully automated manner.
Detects overfitting in models trained on test sets.
problem Challenges in verifying overfitting without independent test sets.
method Uses adversarial examples and unbiased error estimates to test for overfitting.
result Correctly identifies overfitting to the training set but not to the test set.
Post hoc test for Sharpe ratio improves pairwise comparisons.
problem Improving pairwise comparisons of Sharpe ratios.
method Analogous to Tukey's test, applied after rejecting equal Signal-Noise ratios.
result Maintains nominal type I rate and is moderately powerful.
Robust test for distributions under Hellinger distance, simpler than optimal tests.
problem Testing and estimating distributions robustly under Hellinger distance.
method Simple robust hypothesis test with optimal sample complexity, robust to Hellinger distance perturbations.
result Empirically demonstrated robustness and power of the test on canonical distributions.
Framework for online hypothesis testing across various data types.
problem Testing various nonparametric hypotheses in data streams.
method Unified framework using operators on data distributions, leveraging ML models.
result Efficient, adaptive, and error-controlled sequential tests.
A new method for kernel tests without data splitting increases power.
problem Lack of power in kernel-based tests due to data splitting.
method Selective inference framework to learn hyperparameters and test on full sample.
result Empirically larger test power without data splitting, regardless of split proportion.
Develops a new test for comparing two groups' densities, showing minimax optimality.
problem Comparing probability densities between two groups.
method Probabilistic tensor product smoothing spline framework for joint density modeling; penalized likelihood ratio test for interaction testing.
result Proposed test is minimax optimal and outperforms conventional approaches.
Model-X test detects conditional independence in streaming data.
problem Detecting conditional independence in data streams with arbitrary dependency.
method Sequential testing inspired by model-X and testing by betting.
result Significantly reduces type-I error rate and enhances data efficiency.
Simple methods combine statistical tests for out-of-distribution detection.
problem Detecting data points not following the training distribution.
method Combining classical parametric tests (Rao's score test) and a typicality test.
result Combining Fisher's method of test statistics improves out-of-distribution detection accuracy.
Deep neural networks improve two-sample testing.
problem Efficiently distinguishing between two unknown distributions.
method Deep learning representations for two-sample testing.
result Significant reduction in type-2 error rate compared to existing methods.
Unified score and distance-based GoF tests for model adequacy.
problem Difficulty in extending score-based GoF tests to nonparametric alternatives.
method Introducing semiparametric kernelized Stein discrepancy (SKSD) test.
result SKSD test is computationally efficient and universally consistent.