New method disentangles feature importance scores in machine learning.
problem Misinterpretation of feature importance scores due to interactions and dependencies.
method Derive DIP (Disentangled Importance) decomposition of feature importance scores.
result DIP decomposition uniquely separates standalone contributions from interactions and dependencies.
Investigates chaotic financial time series with monthly contributions and devaluation.
problem Analyzing chaotic behavior in financial processes with piecewise contributions and negative interest rates.
method Examines a financial process with monthly contributions and devaluation, showing dichotomy in behavior.
result Financial time series exhibit either periodic sequences or Cantor set of ω-limit points, with chaotic behavior at points of a Cantor attractor.
The paper calculates MES bounds for systemic risk contributions under uncertain dependence.
problem Measuring systemic risk contributions of financial firms under uncertainty in dependence structure.
method Derives worst-case and best-case bounds for MES under known individual firm risks and partial dependence information.
result Improved MES bounds derived for various types of dependence models.
New method to quantify feature contributions to disparity without access to decision-making model.
problem Quantifying feature contributions to disparity when decision-making model is not accessible.
method Use information theory to measure redundant statistical dependency between protected attribute and feature.
result Quantify feature contributions to disparity using information theory.
Review of financial dependencies using econophysics and financial economics.
problem Analyzing financial dependencies between markets.
method Combining econophysics and financial economics approaches to model financial markets.
result Information filtering networks effectively describe financial dependencies.
In this study, we analyzed the activity of monkey V1 neurons responding to grating stimuli of different orientations using inference methods for a time-dependent Ising model. The method provides optimal estimation of time-dependent neural interactions with credible intervals according to the sequential Bayes estimation…
Paper introduces contribution measures for systemic risk in crypto markets.
problem Evaluating systemic risk and quantifying risk interactions in cryptocurrency markets.
method Develops various contribution ratio measures based on MCoVaR, MCoES, and MMME.
result Establishes sufficient conditions for comparing contribution measures between sets of random vectors.
This paper is devoted to the quantification and analysis of marginal risk contribution of a given single financial institution i to the risk of a financial system s. Our work expands on the CoVaR concept proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier as a tool for the measurement of marginal systemic risk contribution. We first g…
TimeInf estimates data contribution in time series data, improving model performance and anomaly detection.
problem Estimating data contribution in time series datasets with temporal dependencies.
method Model-agnostic data contribution estimation method using influence scores.
result TimeInf effectively detects time series anomalies and outperforms existing methods.
We investigate a multi-factor extension of the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model that underlies the capital charges of the "Basel II Accord". In this extended model, it is still possible to derive closed-form solutions for the risk contributions to Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. As an application of the…
New method identifies key channels for extreme brain events.
problem Identifying channels responsible for extreme brain events like seizures.
method Extends canonical correlation to tail dependence, developing TPDM for clustering.
result Tail connectivity provides additional discriminatory power for seizure risk.
A new measure of causal influence quantifies intrinsic contributions in DAGs.
problem Quantifying intrinsic causal contributions in Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs).
method Recursive decomposition of node contributions, structure-preserving interventions, Shapley symmetrization.
result A measure of intrinsic causal contribution that is invariant to node relabeling.
Customer Satisfaction is the most important factors in the industry irrespective of domain. Key Driver Analysis is a common practice in data science to help the business to evaluate the same. Understanding key features, which influence the outcome or dependent feature, is highly important in statistical model building.…
Study finds actuarial unfairness in China's pension system, proposing income-dependent annuitization rules.
problem Actuarial fairness in China's NDC pension system when mortality differs across income groups.
method Developed a mortality-differentiated Lee-Carter framework with group-specific baseline mortality schedules and a common period effect, estimated using national and subgroup data.
result Substantial actuarial unfairness in the current age-only divisor, with a reverse transfer from poorer to richer retirees.
Sub-Riemannian Selberg trace formulae for compact quotients of SL(2, R)
problem Computing zeta-regularized determinants of sub-Laplacians
method Using Fourier decomposition and Selberg trace formulae
result Compact determinant formula expressed in terms of base hyperbolic surface and relative Selberg product
The article reviews key contributions to hyperspectral unmixing.
problem Improving hyperspectral unmixing algorithms.
method Exploring and analyzing existing algorithms like VCA, SISAL, and DECA.
result DECA shows potential for further development and has hidden connections with SISAL.
SHAP explains boosted trees with additively modeled features.
problem Explaining predictions of boosted trees models with additively modeled features.
method SHAP values for additively modeled features in boosted trees models.
result SHAP dependence plot matches partial dependence plot for additively modeled features.
Generative model identifies temporal count data components with regime-dependent contributions.
problem Modeling temporal count data with regime-dependent dynamics.
method Generative framework combining regime-adaptive dynamics with Poisson log-normal emissions.
result Established identifiability of the model and revealed co-variation patterns and regime shifts.
Develops a numerical scheme for solving path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs.
problem Solving path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs numerically.
method Picard iteration method for FBSDEs, concentration inequality for estimator, supervised learning with neural networks for PDEs.
result Proves convergence and rate of convergence for the Picard iteration method.
In many cases, feature selection is often more complicated than identifying a single subset of input variables that would together explain the output. There may be interactions that depend on contextual information, i.e., variables that reveal to be relevant only in some specific circumstances. In this setting, the con…
Paper breaks down risk contribution into inherent and correlation risk components.
problem Understanding the sources of risk in portfolio contributions.
method Leave-one-out decomposition approach to separate inherent and correlation risk contributions.
result The decomposition reveals distinct contributions of position volatility and correlation to portfolio risk.
Study on risk contributions of portfolios using lambda quantile risk measures.
problem No known allocation rule for non-positively homogeneous risk measures.
method Defined lambda quantiles on portfolio compositions, derived derivatives, and introduced generalized Euler contributions.
result Explicit formulae for the derivatives of lambda quantiles, showing their homogeneity properties.
Proposes CLIQUE for improved local variable importance in multi-class classification.
problem Lack of methods to characterize local structure in model loss space.
method CLIQUE (Conditional Local Importance by Quantile Expectations)
result CLIQUE emphasizes locally dependent information and captures interaction behavior.
New dataset and analysis improve evaluation of visual representation models.
problem Insufficient evaluation methods for visual representation models.
method Analyzed five representations and developed a new dataset.
result Models with poor linear classification performance can still perform well on complex tasks.
Develops privacy-preserving methods for longitudinal linear regression.
problem Protecting individual information in longitudinal data with privacy-preserving statistics.
method Proposes a user-level private regression estimator and a privatized covariance estimator for longitudinal linear regression under user-level differential privacy.
result Establishes theoretical guarantees for practical user-level differential privacy estimation and inference in longitudinal linear regression.
New simulation approaches to evaluating path-dependent options without matrix inversion issues nor Euler bias are evaluated. They employ three main contributions: Stochastic approximation replaces regression in the LSM algorithm; Explicit weak solutions to stochastic differential equations are developed and applied to …
Multiplex Network Hawkes model for systemic risk measurement
problem Investigate how contagion in financial networks is affected by different transmission channels
method Multiplex Network Hawkes model
result Sparse contagion pathways, with systemic-risk transmission concentrated in outward flows from a small number of influential institutions
Paper improves generalization bounds for noisy stochastic algorithms.
problem Improving generalization bounds for noisy stochastic algorithms.
method Introduces Exponential Family Langevin Dynamics (EFLD) and establishes data-dependent expected stability based generalization bounds.
result Sharp generalization bounds with O(1/n) sample dependence and gradient discrepancy.
The paper presents a new copula based method for measuring dependence between random variables. Our approach extends the Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the copula of the joint distribution. We prove that this approach has several advantageous properties. Similarly to Shannon mutual information, the proposed dependence mea…
A new fuzzy k-means algorithm for high-dimensional data with variable feature weights.
problem Clustering high-dimensional data with varying feature significance.
method Proposes a modified fuzzy k-means algorithm using two entropy terms to weight features.
result Improved clustering performance on various datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.
We investigate the prediction capability of the orthogonal greedy algorithm (OGA) in high-dimensional regression models with dependent observations. The rates of convergence of the prediction error of OGA are obtained under a variety of sparsity conditions. To prevent OGA from overfitting, we introduce a high-dimension…
In this paper, we introduce the rich classes of conditional distortion (CoD) risk measures and distortion risk contribution (ΔCoD) measures as measures of systemic risk and analyze their properties and representations. The classes include the well-known conditional Value-at-Risk, conditional Expected Shortfall, and r…
Estimates binary labels from dependent data using Markov Random Fields.
problem Statistical estimation from dependent data across spatial, temporal, and social domains.
method Modeling dependencies as Markov Random Fields and providing efficient estimation algorithms.
result Statistically efficient estimation rates for Ising models from a single sample.
Improved bounds for SGLD via data-dependent estimates.
problem Improving generalization bounds for noisy iterative learning algorithms.
method Variational characterization of mutual information and data-dependent priors.
result Significantly improved mutual information bounds for SGLD.
New algorithms for set union in differential privacy improve efficiency and accuracy.
problem Efficiently discovering items from private user data in natural language processing.
method Developed algorithms that allow users to contribute items in a dependent fashion, guided by a policy with contractive properties.
result New algorithms significantly outperform existing mechanisms in terms of efficiency and accuracy.
The study examines how weight sharing, equivariance, and locality affect the sample complexity of neural networks.
problem Understanding the impact of design choices on the generalization error of neural networks.
method Statistical learning theory applied to single hidden layer networks with weight sharing, equivariance, and locality.
result Lower and upper bounds for sample complexity are derived, showing that locality has benefits but comes with a trade-off.
Deep learning estimates time-varying Markov model parameters.
problem Estimating time-dependent parameters in Markov models.
method Reframes parameter estimation as an optimization problem using maximum likelihood.
result Real solution close to SDE with neural network-derived parameters under specific conditions.
Method predicts LFSM increments from past observations using codifference.
problem Forecasting LFSM increments from discrete-time observations.
method Uses codifference for serial dependence, with conditional expectation or projection for α>1 or α<2. result Method shows promising performance in forecasting volatilities, capturing kurtosis and serial dependence.
CDPs visualize causal dependencies in AI models.
problem Understanding how AI models depend on data inputs causally.
method Developed Causal Dependence Plots (CDPs) to visualize causal dependencies.
result CDPs show causal changes in predictors and outcomes.
Study p-Willmore disks with boundary energies, finding equilibrium configurations.
problem Finding equilibrium configurations for p-Willmore disks with boundary energies.
method Model boundary as Kirchhoff elastic rod, interior term dependent on mean and Gaussian curvatures. Study among topological disks and p-Willmore examples.
result Equilibrium configurations for p-Willmore disks with boundary energies.
CVNN outperforms RVNN on non-circular data.
problem Classifying complex-valued data with statistical dependence.
method Comparison of CVNN and RVNN on non-circular data.
result CVNN outperforms RVNN in accuracy and generalization.
Representation and learning of long-range dependencies is a central challenge confronted in modern applications of machine learning to sequence data. Yet despite the prominence of this issue, the basic problem of measuring long-range dependence, either in a given data source or as represented in a trained deep model, r…
This paper analyzes a time-dependent CFMM called RMM-01, focusing on its pricing and stability.
problem Analyzing the pricing and stability of a time-dependent CFMM called RMM-01.
method Introducing the general framework for CFMMs, analyzing pricing properties, and examining time-varying price stability.
result Determining parameter bounds for RMM-01 to achieve a more stable price than Uniswap.
Predicts financial asset dependencies using spatiotemporal patterns.
problem Complex dependency structures in financial assets for risk mitigation.
method Proposes Asset Dependency Matrix (ADM) and Asset Dependency Neural Network (ADNN) with ConvLSTM for spatiotemporal asset dependency prediction.
result ADNN outperforms baselines in predicting asset dependencies and their applications.
MULTIFIT tests independence between two random vectors using multiscale Fisher's test.
problem Detecting local dependence between two random vectors.
method MULTIFIT uses a resampling-free approach to test independence.
result MULTIFIT can easily handle large sample sizes and interpret dependency nature.
This paper establishes rates of universal approximation for the shallow neural tangent kernel (NTK): network weights are only allowed microscopic changes from random initialization, which entails that activations are mostly unchanged, and the network is nearly equivalent to its linearization. Concretely, the paper has …
Efficiently models agent dependencies in large social networks.
problem Challenges in incorporating inter-agent dependencies in social reinforcement learning models.
method Clusters users based on payoff and contribution, combines cluster-level policies with personalized agent-level policies, and uses dynamic clustering.
result Our approach learns more accurate policy estimates and converges more quickly than existing methods.
MinShap improves feature selection accuracy and stability in complex models.
problem Challenging feature selection in unknown non-linear relationships.
method Combines Shapley values with a modified approach to feature selection.
result MinShap outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in accuracy and stability.