Methodology for estimating marked Hawkes processes with neural networks.
problem Estimating conditional intensity of marked Hawkes processes.
method Proposes two models: Shallow Neural Hawkes with marks and Neural Network for Non-Linear Hawkes with Marks.
result Validation on synthetic datasets and real-world cryptocurrency order book data.
New model uses variance-Hawkes process to fit energy market returns.
problem Modeling clustering effects in financial markets.
method Defining and fitting a variance-Hawkes process to energy market returns.
result Demonstrated that variance-Hawkes process can capture clustering effects.
Derives a pricing formula for VIX options using a new stochastic volatility model.
problem Pricing VIX options under a new stochastic volatility model with volatility clustering.
method Derives a semi-analytical pricing formula using the Heston-Hawkes model with an independent compound Hawkes process.
result Derives an explicit expression for VIX^2 as a linear combination of variance and Hawkes intensity.
We investigate the Hawking energy of small surfaces in space times without symmetry assumptions by introducing the notion of Hawking type functionals. In particular, we find that Hawking type functionals are generalized Willmore functionals which allows us to find area constrained, minimizing, immersed, haunted bubble …
The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has immigration-birth representation. Based on that, Fierro et al. recently introduced…
Study applies Hawkes volatility to mid-price process for real-time risk management.
problem Lack of studies on Hawkes volatility for tick-level price dynamics.
method Derived variance formula for unmarked and marked Hawkes models, applied to mid-price process.
result Reliable results and high predictive power of intraday Hawkes volatility.
It is well-know that Hawking mass is nonnegative for a stable constant mean curvature (CMC) sphere in three manifold of nonnegative scalar curvature. R. Bartnik proposed the rigidity problem of Hawking mass of stable CMC spheres. In this paper, we show partial rigidity results of Hawking mass for stable CMC spher…
New optimal investment strategies for finance and insurance using Hawkes-based models.
problem Optimal investment strategies in finance and insurance for specific models.
method Solving Merton investment problems with Hawkes-based models.
result New optimal investment results for finance and insurance models.
Constructs foliations of critical surfaces for Hawking energy in asymptotically flat initial data sets.
problem Positivity and rigidity of Hawking quasi-local energy in asymptotically flat spacetimes.
method Lyapunov-Schmidt reduction within a Willmore-foliation framework.
result Existence and uniqueness of foliations by Hawking surfaces, positivity and large-sphere limit of Hawking energy.
The paper develops Hawkes-based models for LOB and applies them to European, spread, and basket option pricing.
problem Developing accurate models for pricing options in the context of limit order books (LOB).
method Introduces multivariate Hawkes processes and their limit theorems, applies to European, spread, and basket options.
result Hawkes-based models provide more market forecast information than classical models.
Introduces a new Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity to better model dependence structures.
problem Modeling dependence structures in time series data with realistic autocorrelation functions.
method Develops a Hawkes process with CARMA(p,q) intensity to capture more complex dependencies.
result The CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes model can reproduce more realistic dependence structures and is stationary and positive.
The Hawking energy is nonnegative and rigid on area-constrained surfaces in general relativity.
problem The rigidity and positivity of the Hawking energy on specific surfaces in general relativity.
method Evaluation of the Hawking energy on area-constrained critical surfaces under the dominant energy condition.
result The Hawking energy is nonnegative and rigid on area-constrained surfaces, including charged and cosmological constant variants.
Paper proposes a neural network for non-parametric Hawkes process kernel estimation.
problem Estimating non-parametric Hawkes process kernels efficiently and interpretably.
method Single hidden layer neural network for unbiased log-likelihood estimation of Hawkes processes.
result Proposed neural network achieves comparable or better performance than existing methods.
The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.
problem Understanding the long-term behavior of Hawkes processes.
method Proving functional limit theorems under various conditions on the dispersion of child events.
result Functional limit theorems hold for Hawkes processes with different levels of child event dispersion.
Mamba Hawkes Process improves modeling of event sequences with long-term dependencies.
problem Modeling mutual inhibition and nonlinearity in asynchronous event sequences.
method Introduces Mamba Hawkes Process using Mamba state space architecture.
result MHP outperforms existing models across various datasets.
New foliations found for critical surfaces of Hawking energy, resolving discrepancies.
problem Finding consistent critical surfaces for the Hawking energy in non-totally geodesic spacelike hypersurfaces.
method Constructing a unique local foliation of area constrained critical surfaces of the Hawking energy in the general case of non-totally geodesic spacelike hypersurfaces.
result Discrepancy found in the small sphere limit of the Hawking energy, explained and resolved.
Sharp bounds for charged Hawking mass in electrostatic space-times.
problem Bounding charged Hawking mass in electrostatic space-times.
method Proving sharp lower bounds and upper bounds for the charged Hawking mass.
result Sharp lower bounds for the charged Hawking mass of stable surfaces in electrostatic space-times.
Flexible nonlinear Hawkes processes for time-varying systems.
problem Limited expressive ability of classic Hawkes processes.
method Flexible state-switching Hawkes processes with latent variable augmentation for Bayesian inference.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art competitors.
New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
problem Stability condition for Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
method Analysis of Quadratic Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
result Quadratic Hawkes processes are always stationary with infinite mean intensity when total endogeneity ratio exceeds unity.
The paper studies Hawkes processes under mean-field limits and criticality conditions.
problem Analyzing nearly unstable Hawkes processes in a mean-field regime.
method Extending the method by Jaisson and Rosenbaum, establishing scaling limits and propagation of chaos.
result Scaling limits of Hawkes processes are stochastic Volterra diffusions of affine type, with three distinct limiting regimes.
Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
problem Modeling multiple multivariate point processes with shared dynamics.
method Leverage graphons to model an uncountable event type space, learn graphon-based Hawkes process model by minimizing hierarchical optimal transport distance.
result Infer underlying relations and simulate event sequences with similar dynamics.
Exact asymptotic solutions found for nonlinear Hawkes processes.
problem Analytical solutions for nonlinear Hawkes processes with positive and negative feedbacks.
method Field master equation approach to classify steady-state solutions.
result Explicit power law formulas for steady-state intensity distributions Pss(λ)∝λ−1−a, with a as a function of parameters. Study differentially private methods for learning Hawkes processes.
problem Lack of thorough analysis on sample complexity for learning Hawkes processes parameters and releasing differentially private versions.
method Developed non-private and differentially private estimators for Hawkes processes parameters.
result Obtained sample complexity results for both private and non-private settings.
Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes that are self-exciting and have clustering effect, with wide applications in finance, social networks and many other fields. This paper considers a self-exciting Hawkes process where the baseline intensity is time-dependent, the exciting function is a general funct…
Study on queues with Hawkes arrivals, proving steady-state behavior and developing an efficient algorithm.
problem Analyzing the steady-state behavior of queues with Hawkes arrivals.
method Novel coupling techniques and exponential convergence results for workload and busy period processes.
result Exponential convergence of queueing processes to their stationary distribution.
Proposes first privacy-preserving method for estimating Hawkes processes.
problem Estimating point process models with sensitive personal data raises privacy concerns.
method Proposes differential privacy for event stream data and two optimization algorithms.
result Efficiently estimates Hawkes process models with privacy and utility guarantees.
We propose a novel fused Gromov-Wasserstein alignment method to jointly learn the Hawkes processes in different event spaces, and align their event types. Given two Hawkes processes, we use fused Gromov-Wasserstein discrepancy to measure their dissimilarity, which considers both the Wasserstein discrepancy based on the…
New PDE systems generalize Hawking mass monotonicity.
problem Generalizing Hawking mass monotonicity to initial data sets.
method Introduced new systems of PDE on initial data sets (M,g,k). result Generalized Geroch's monotonicity formula to initial data sets.
In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Util…
Modeling high-frequency order book data with Hawkes-Markovian process.
problem Capturing the dynamics of high-frequency order book events.
method Hawkes process with Markovian baseline intensities, LASSO regularization, and Akaike Information Criteria.
result Effective modeling of order book dynamics with reduced parameter redundancy.
New scalable variational Bayes methods for Hawkes processes.
problem Computational intractability of Bayesian estimation for generalised nonlinear Hawkes processes.
method Unified variational Bayes framework, adaptive mean-field approximation, sparsity-inducing procedure.
result Adaptive mean-field variational algorithm for sigmoid Hawkes processes is scalable and robust.
New Hawkes processes model spatiotemporal events with triggering and clustering.
problem Modeling self-excitatory behavior in spatiotemporal data.
method Developed a new class of spatiotemporal Hawkes processes with efficient inference method.
result Efficiently modeled and inferred spatiotemporal events with triggering and clustering.
Paper presents a method for estimating Hawkes process parameters.
problem Estimating parameters of Hawkes processes with self-excitation or inhibition.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for Hawkes processes with self-excitation or inhibition.
result The proposed estimator provides more accurate estimations in the inhibition context.
Study uses Hawkes processes to analyze stock market contagion in China.
problem Understanding contagion in Chinese stock market.
method Fitting Hawkes processes to daily returns and sector indices.
result Identifies long-term dependencies and trending patterns in sector indices.
Model detects market anomalies using a Hawkes process with hidden Markov chain.
problem Detecting high-frequency market manipulation in cryptocurrency trades.
method Developed a Markov-modulated Hawkes process with piecewise constant excitation kernels.
result Demonstrated the model's effectiveness in detecting suspicious trading activities.
Framework simulates market microstructure with stable Hawkes processes.
problem Reproduce realistic market order flow dynamics.
method Deterministic C++ LOB simulator with Hawkes-driven stochastic order flow.
result Derives stability and ergodicity proofs for Hawkes models.
Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic process that have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modelling to financial analysis. They are point processes whose defining characteristic is that they 'self-excite', meaning that each arrival increases the rate of future arrivals for som…
Proposes a new model for complex multivariate event data.
problem Modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics.
method Integrates spatial information into latent state evolution through learned temporal and spatial decay dynamics.
result Successfully recovers sensible temporal and spatial intensity structure in multivariate spatio-temporal point patterns.
A new parallel algorithm speeds up Hawkes process estimation.
problem Slow maximum likelihood estimation for Hawkes processes.
method Parallel prefix scan for sparse transition matrices.
result Massive speedup with O(N/P) complexity. Improved Hawkes model forecasts extreme financial returns more accurately.
problem Forecasting extreme tail events in financial log-returns.
method 2T-POT Hawkes model with multiple exceedance thresholds.
result 2T-POT Hawkes model outperforms GARCH-EVT model in risk forecasting.
In this paper, we study various new Hawkes processes. Specifically, we construct general compound Hawkes processes and investigate their properties in limit order books. With regards to these general compound Hawkes processes, we prove a Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and a Functional Central Limit Theorems (FCLT) for seve…
In this paper, we study the relation of the monotonicity of Hawking Mass and geometric flow problems. We show that along the Hamilton-DeTurck flow with bounded curvature coupled with the modified mean curvature flow, the Hawking mass of the hypersphere with a sufficiently large radius in Schwarzschild spaces is monoton…
This paper explores neural models to improve modeling of Hawkes process intensity functions.
problem Traditional Hawkes process intensity function's parametrized kernel function biases future event predictions.
method Uses neural models to model the kernel function of Hawkes process intensity function.
result Neural models can better capture future event characteristics using past events data.
Proposes a new jump-diffusion model for option pricing.
problem Capturing self-excitation and contagion effects in option pricing models.
method Combines Heston and Queue-Hawkes models with closed-form characteristic function.
result Reduces computational complexity and offers better volatility smile fitting.
NNNH uses neural networks to model complex event patterns.
problem Analyzing multi-dimensional nonlinear Hawkes processes with mutual excitation and inhibition.
method NNNH employs feedforward neural networks to model individual kernels and base intensity, optimizing parameters via Stochastic Gradient Descent.
result NNNH accurately captures complexities of nonlinear Hawkes processes, as demonstrated by numerical experiments.
New model prices options with complex market data structures.
problem Complex market data structures in option pricing.
method Compound CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes model.
result Model can replicate volatility smile in financial markets.
Graph Hawkes Neural Network forecasts evolving graph sequences.
problem Modeling dynamic graph sequences with complex event types.
method Generalized Hawkes process to neural network, capturing complex event impacts.
result Effective at predicting future events in evolving graph sequences.
As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract many researchers in statistics and computer science these years because they capt…