Credibility theory provides tools to obtain better estimates by combining individual data with sample information. We apply the Credibility theory to a Uniform distribution that is used in testing the reliability of forecasting an interest rate for long term horizons. Such empirical exercise is asked by Regulators (CRR…
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48 results for “credibility testing”
The paper tests the credibility of public and private surveys using linear regression and differential privacy.
problem Ensuring the validity of data analysis results from sample surveys using linear regression.
method Designing an algorithm to test the credibility of surveys and extending it to handle LDP.
result The algorithm achieves optimal estimation error bound for linear regression and reduces sample complexity.
The paper proposes a method to assess survey data credibility without needing many samples, regardless of data dimension.
problem Assessing the credibility of survey data across different dimensions.
method Task-based approach and model-specific distance metric for verifying survey data credibility in regression models.
result The sample complexity of the proposed algorithm is independent of the data dimension, making it more efficient.
Recent explainability related studies have shown that state-of-the-art DNNs do not always adopt correct evidences to make decisions. It not only hampers their generalization but also makes them less likely to be trusted by end-users. In pursuit of developing more credible DNNs, in this paper we propose CREX, which enco…
Paper introduces exact credible sets for classification problems.
problem No general way to construct exact credible sets for classification.
method Generalized credible set with connection to Neyman--Pearson lemma and randomized decision rule.
result Achieves any preassigned credible level for classification problems.
Paper introduces SCI to distinguish market signals from coordination.
problem Unclear signals in prediction markets.
method Formalizes SCI, introduces weighted and time-varying extensions.
result Discriminates between market signals and coordination.
Transformer architecture improved with credibility mechanism for better model performance.
problem Improving predictive models in tabular data.
method Introducing a credibility mechanism to the Transformer architecture.
result Credibility Transformer leads to superior predictive models compared to state-of-the-art models.
Cellular Electron CryoTomography (CECT) is a 3D imaging technique that captures information about the structure and spatial organization of macromolecular complexes within single cells, in near-native state and at sub-molecular resolution. Although template matching is often used to locate macromolecules in a CECT imag…
Online reviews provide viewpoints on the strengths and shortcomings of products/services, influencing potential customers' purchasing decisions. However, the proliferation of non-credible reviews -- either fake (promoting/ demoting an item), incompetent (involving irrelevant aspects), or biased -- entails the problem o…
CP4SBI improves the calibration of credible sets in SBI models.
problem Inaccurate credible sets in SBI models lead to underestimation of true parameters.
method Develops a local conformal calibration framework for SBI models.
result Improves the quality of uncertainty quantification for neural posterior estimators.
This project demonstrated a methodology to estimating cooperate credibility with a Natural Language Processing approach. As cooperate transparency impacts both the credibility and possible future earnings of the firm, it is an important factor to be considered by banks and investors on risk assessments of listed firms.…
No policy can simultaneously be fully autonomous, optimally calibrated, and helpful, proving a trilemma.
problem Proving impossibility of a policy achieving maximum helpfulness, optimal calibration, and full autonomy.
method Geometric proof showing that adding any non-affine autonomy incentive to a strictly proper scoring rule destroys strict properness.
result The Behavioral Credibility Trilemma: no policy can achieve all three goals simultaneously.
Simulation workflow is a top-level model for the design and control of simulation process. It connects multiple simulation components with time and interaction restrictions to form a complete simulation system. Before the construction and evaluation of the component models, the validation of upper-layer simulation work…
In many settings, it is important that a model be capable of providing reasons for its predictions (i.e., the model must be interpretable). However, the model's reasoning may not conform with well-established knowledge. In such cases, while interpretable, the model lacks \textit{credibility}. In this work, we formally …
The repeated community-wide reuse of test sets in popular benchmark problems raises doubts about the credibility of reported test-error rates. Verifying whether a learned model is overfitted to a test set is challenging as independent test sets drawn from the same data distribution are usually unavailable, while other …
New auction design uses statistical learning to reduce costs and improve fairness.
problem Designing efficient multi-item auctions with reduced implementation costs and fairness.
method Nonparametric density estimation for credible intervals, two new strategies.
result Strategies consistently outperform alternative methods in revenue maximization and cost reduction.
Bayesian methods improve group testing for identifying infected patients.
problem Identifying infected patients from group testing results with false positives.
method Bayesian inference and belief propagation algorithm, combined with expectation-maximization method.
result True-positive rate improved by considering credible intervals.
In situations like tax declarations or analyzes of household budgets we would like to automatically evaluate credibility of exogenous variable (declared income) based on some available (endogenous) variables - we want to build a model and train it on provided data sample to predict (conditional) probability distributio…
Develops a new method for sampling from Bayesian credible sets using deep generative quantile learning.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in high-dimensional spaces with intractable likelihoods.
method Uses deep neural networks to implicitly sample from Bayesian credible sets via a push-forward mapping and Monge-Kantorovich depth.
result Demonstrates improved performance and theoretical consistency of the quantile learning framework.
New method for credible intervals of Covid19 reproduction number.
problem Lack of credibility intervals in existing estimates.
method Combines Langevin Monte Carlo with Proximal operators.
result Produces credible intervals for reproduction number estimates.
The paper analyzes uncertainty quantification in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
problem Analyzing uncertainty in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
method Theoretical guarantees and limitations for pointwise credible sets are derived for a rescaled Brownian motion prior with a sparse variational Gaussian process method.
result Theoretical characterization of asymptotic frequentist coverage for credible sets, distinguishing conservative and overconfident cases.
New framework compares credal sets for hypothesis testing with epistemic uncertainty.
problem Comparing distributions with partial ignorance and epistemic uncertainty.
method Credal two-sample testing framework for convex sets of probability measures.
result Direct integration of epistemic uncertainty in hypothesis testing.
Media seems to have become more partisan, often providing a biased coverage of news catering to the interest of specific groups. It is therefore essential to identify credible information content that provides an objective narrative of an event. News communities such as digg, reddit, or newstrust offer recommendations,…
One of the major hurdles preventing the full exploitation of information from online communities is the widespread concern regarding the quality and credibility of user-contributed content. Prior works in this domain operate on a static snapshot of the community, making strong assumptions about the structure of the dat…
Online health communities are a valuable source of information for patients and physicians. However, such user-generated resources are often plagued by inaccuracies and misinformation. In this work we propose a method for automatically establishing the credibility of user-generated medical statements and the trustworth…
BIGUE algorithm provides credible intervals for hyperbolic network embeddings.
problem Uncertainty in hyperbolic network embeddings.
method Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for Bayesian hyperbolic random graph model.
result Samples from the posterior distribution provide credible intervals for hyperbolic coordinates and network properties.
The mass, or binding energy, is the basis property of the atomic nucleus. It determines its stability, and reaction and decay rates. Quantifying the nuclear binding is important for understanding the origin of elements in the universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the nucleosynthesis in stars often take …
Bayesian method improves estimation of unseen species.
problem Estimating unseen species in biological and physical sciences.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach with Pitman-Yor prior and Gaussian credible intervals.
result Improves asymptotic credible intervals for unseen species estimation.
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and simultaneous Bayesian credible sets in GP regression. As an intermediate result, we develop…
Recently deep neural networks have been successfully used for various classification tasks, especially for problems with massive perfectly labeled training data. However, it is often costly to have large-scale credible labels in real-world applications. One solution is to make supervised learning robust with imperfectl…
Purpose: Malicious web domain identification is of significant importance to the security protection of Internet users. With online credibility and performance data, this paper aims to investigate the use of machine learning tech-niques for malicious web domain identification by considering the class imbalance issue (i…
There is considerable debate whether the domestic political institutions (specifically, the country s level of democracy) of the host developing country toward foreign investors are effective in establishing the credibility of commitments are still underway, researchers have also analyzed the effect of international in…
Generative sampler learns velocity fields for efficient posterior inference.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions in high dimensions.
method Generative multivariate posterior sampler via flow matching, learning a velocity field for a deterministic transport map.
result Conditional Brenier map enables fast generation of credible sets with theoretical consistency guarantees.
Bayesian inference engines improve density estimation accuracy and scalability.
problem Constructing accurate and scalable probability density functions.
method Bayesian inference engines (no-U-turn sampling and expectation propagation) with binning strategy.
result Density estimates have excellent comparative performance and scale well to large sample sizes.
Deep learning models match traditional surrogate models in accuracy and speed for satellite remote sensing.
problem Limited computational power hinders high-resolution numerical model simulations.
method Deep learning framework applied to satellite remote sensing data.
result Deep learning models can accurately and efficiently emulate numerical models.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challeng…
Most machine learning classifiers give predictions for new examples accurately, yet without indicating how trustworthy predictions are. In the medical domain, this hampers their integration in decision support systems, which could be useful in the clinical practice. We use a supervised learning approach that combines E…
The paper proposes a fair and private decentralized deep learning framework.
problem Ensuring fairness and privacy in collaborative deep learning.
method A reputation system and differential privacy are used. FDPDDL framework is built with two stages: initialisation and update.
result FDPDDL achieves high fairness, comparable accuracy to centralised and distributed frameworks, and better accuracy than standalone.
Bayesian method for estimating ATE with robustness to model misspecification.
problem Estimating average treatment effects under unconfoundedness.
method Double robust Bayesian inference using adjusted prior and posterior distributions.
result Bayesian credible sets form asymptotically exact confidence intervals.
Unified framework for fair decision-making across diverse groups.
problem Statistical brittleness in fairness testing for small subgroups.
method Size-adaptive hypothesis testing framework.
result Validated approach for interpretable, statistically rigorous decisions.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
problem Bayesian inference for high-dimensional regression models often produces biased credible sets.
method Debiasing approach based on Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Frequentist validity of debiased Bayesian posterior.
Limited liability creates a conflict of interests between policyholders and shareholders of insurance companies. It provides shareholders with incentives to increase the risk of the insurer's assets and liabilities which, in turn, might reduce the value policyholders attach to and premiums they are willing to pay for i…
BCPO optimizes offline RL policies by converting uncertainty into conservative bounds.
problem Offline RL's fragility under distribution shifts and model errors.
method Bayesian approach with credible lower bounds and KL regularization.
result BCPO yields an uncertainty-calibrated policy that avoids exploiting model errors.
New method improves spatial prediction validation accuracy.
problem Validation methods fail for spatial prediction tasks due to mismatch between validation and test locations.
method Proposes a new validation method that adapts existing covariate-shift ideas to spatial settings.
result Proves and demonstrates the new method's superiority in spatial prediction validation.
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
Sample Elicitationcs.LG
This paper tackles sample elicitation for learning systems, introducing a method to incentivize truthful samples.
problem Eliciting credible training samples for complex distributions from humans is challenging.
method Introduces a deep learning aided method to incentivize truthful samples from self-interested and rational agents.
result Achieves approximate incentive compatibility in eliciting truthful samples via accurate estimation of -divergence function.
Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use of approximate inference, Bayesian uncertainty estimates are often inaccurate -…
Unified theoretical guarantees for distribution-free changepoint detection and testing.
problem Distribution-free changepoint inference with finite-sample validity and consistency.
method Distribution-free changepoint localization using conformal p-values with theoretical guarantees.
result Unified distribution-free guarantees for changepoint detection, localization, and testing.