Study develops a new model for predicting individual mobility based on activity patterns.
problem Existing mobility prediction methods overlook underlying activity patterns.
method Activity-based hidden Markov model (IOHMM) using transit smart card data.
result Proposed model achieves similar prediction performance to LSTM but also provides behavioral insights.
Proposes EPIG for active learning to improve predictive performance.
problem Suboptimal predictive performance of traditional active learning methods.
method Introduces EPIG, a new acquisition function measuring information gain in the space of predictions.
result EPIG leads to stronger predictive performance compared to BALD across various datasets and models.
New acquisition function improves batch Bayesian active learning.
problem BatchBALD conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to suboptimal performance.
method Focus on predictive probabilities to separate epistemic uncertainty, leading to better performance and faster evaluation.
result The new acquisition function performs better and allows for larger batches.
QSAR models struggle to predict activity cliffs, but graph isomorphism features improve AC-sensitivity.
problem QSAR models struggle to predict activity cliffs (ACs).
method Nine distinct QSAR models combining molecular representation methods and regression techniques.
result Graph isomorphism features improve AC-sensitivity.
Active learning has shown to reduce the number of experiments needed to obtain high-confidence drug-target predictions. However, in order to actually save experiments using active learning, it is crucial to have a method to evaluate the quality of the current prediction and decide when to stop the experimentation proce…
This research improves neural network performance with adaptive activation functions in sparse data settings.
problem Limited data availability in scientific and engineering problems.
method Investigation of two types of adaptive activation functions with individual trainable parameters.
result Adaptive activation functions, especially with individual trainable parameters, enhance prediction accuracy and confidence in sparse data settings.
Active learning selects samples for labeling to build accurate models with minimal labeled data.
problem Costly acquisition of labeled data in supervised learning.
method Adaptive selection of unlabeled data samples for labeling.
result Efficient model building with minimal labeled data.
PPAT uses predictions to improve risk estimation in active testing.
problem Exploiting informative predictions from black-box models for efficient risk estimation.
method Combines LURE estimator with prediction-powered control variate.
result PPAT outperforms existing methods in risk estimation and uncertainty quantification.
Active learning methods, like uncertainty sampling, combined with probabilistic prediction techniques have achieved success in various problems like image classification and text classification. For more complex multivariate prediction tasks, the relationships between labels play an important role in designing structur…
Enhances drug discovery models by understanding human language.
problem Low predictive quality of activity prediction models in drug discovery.
method Proposes a novel architecture with separate chemical and natural language input modules and a contrastive pre-training objective.
result Improves predictive performance on few-shot and zero-shot learning benchmarks.
New methods improve Bayesian inference and decision-making in online learning.
problem Current Bayesian deep learning does not fully utilize joint predictives for sequential decision-making.
method Proposes new evaluation settings for active learning and active sampling, focusing on marginal and joint cross-entropies.
result Initial experiments suggest challenges in applying current BDL inference techniques in high-dimensional spaces.
Bayesian nonparametric model predicts user activity and intervention success.
problem Predicting user activity and intervention success in online experiments.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach to model user heterogeneity and derive user activity predictions.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches in predicting user activity and intervention success.
New approach models computer network activity as mixtures of sources.
problem Malicious activity detection in computer networks using standard algorithms is ineffective.
method Source separation approach to model short-term dynamics of computer network activity.
result Qualitative and quantitative experiments validate the approach.
Deep active learning improves solvability prediction in power systems.
problem Inconclusive conservatism in traditional solvability region analysis methods.
method Proposes a deep active learning framework to reduce labeled dataset size.
result Significantly reduces the size of labeled dataset for training.
Online purchase decisions in organizations can go through a complex journey with multiple agents involved in the decision making process. Depending on the product being purchased, and the organizational structure, the process may involve employees who first conduct market research, and then influence decision makers wh…
Generative AI predicts economic activity from corporate transcripts.
problem Predicting economic activity using existing measures like surveys.
method Extracted managerial expectations from transcripts using generative AI.
result AI Economy Score predicts economic activity up to 10 quarters ahead.
Proposes active learning for meta-learning in graph node response prediction.
problem Difficulty in improving performance with meta-learning due to unbalanced observations.
method Combines graph convolutional neural networks and reinforcement learning for both prediction and node selection.
result Can predict responses and select nodes even for unseen response variables.
New active learning methods for Gaussian process improve predictive modeling of composite fuselage.
problem Improving predictive modeling of composite fuselage with limited training samples and uncertainties.
method Proposed two new active learning algorithms for Gaussian process considering uncertainties.
result The proposed approach realizes better prediction performance for automatic shape control of composite fuselage.
Boosting trees predict Twitch subscriptions from user activity.
problem Predicting Twitch user subscriptions from activity data.
method Used boosting trees and target-encodings for high cardinality categoricals.
result User activity can be better predicted than content alone.
Active learning reduces smart meter data needs for better electric load predictions.
problem Inaccurate and costly electric load predictions due to insufficient data.
method Active learning to collect more informative data subsets.
result Electric load predictions can be made with about half the data using active learning.
Many neural network architectures rely on the choice of the activation function for each hidden layer. Given the activation function, the neural network is trained over the bias and the weight parameters. The bias catches the center of the activation, and the weights capture the scale. Here we propose to train the netw…
This paper benchmarks Bayesian models' ability to estimate predictive correlations, especially for active learning.
problem Benchmarking how accurately Bayesian models estimate predictive correlations, especially in active learning.
method Considered transductive active learning as a benchmark, introduced meta-correlations and cross-normalized likelihoods.
result Meta-correlations and cross-normalized likelihoods can efficiently evaluate predictive correlations and are consistent with TAL performance.
New method corrects active learning for distribution shifts and outliers.
problem Conventional active learning methods fail to account for test-time distribution.
method JEPIG, a hybrid of BALD and EPIG, maximizes expected predictive information gain.
result JEPIG outperforms conventional methods in active learning with distribution shifts.
Model predicts active and passive cosponsorship motivations in Congress.
problem Identifying motivations behind cosponsorship in U.S. Congress.
method Encoder+RGCN model learning from bill texts and speeches.
result F1-score of 0.88 for predicting active and passive cosponsorship.
This paper improves prediction uncertainty estimation by inferring variation from neuron activation strength.
problem Estimating prediction uncertainty from ensemble methods is expensive and inaccurate.
method Introduced randomness into model training and inferred prediction variation from neuron activation strength.
result Average R squared on MovieLens is 0.56 and on Criteo is 0.81, with strong performance in variation detection.
Batch Active Learning uses derivative information for Gaussian Process regression.
problem Efficiently selecting data batches in Gaussian Process regression models.
method Proposes using the predictive covariance matrix to select data batches, exploiting full correlation.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of incorporating derivative information across diverse applications.
Better use of unlabelled data improves Bayesian active learning models.
problem Neglecting unlabelled data harms predictive performance and data acquisition decisions.
method A simple framework for semi-supervised Bayesian active learning.
result The proposed framework produces better models than conventional approaches.
This paper proposes LDM for efficient deep active learning.
problem Improving model performance by selecting informative unlabeled data.
method Least Disagree Metric (LDM) and its estimator for deep learning models.
result LDM-based active learning achieves state-of-the-art performance.
Activity coefficients, which are a measure of the non-ideality of liquid mixtures, are a key property in chemical engineering with relevance to modeling chemical and phase equilibria as well as transport processes. Although experimental data on thousands of binary mixtures are available, prediction methods are needed t…
Model predicts OTC dealers' trading behavior using historical data.
problem Predicting the trading decisions of OTC dealers for US corporate bonds.
method Applied machine learning methods, including neural networks and clustering.
result PPRZ Transformer model outperforms other models in predicting dealer behavior.
This paper improves active learning for Gaussian process regression to handle distributional uncertainty.
problem Active learning for Gaussian process regression does not guarantee accurate predictions for target distributions.
method Proposes two methods to reduce worst-case expected error for Gaussian process regression.
result Shows an upper bound of the worst-case expected squared error, suggesting finite data labels can achieve arbitrarily small error.
Collaborative filtering is a useful technique for exploiting the preference patterns of a group of users to predict the utility of items for the active user. In general, the performance of collaborative filtering depends on the number of rated examples given by the active user. The more the number of rated examples giv…
PGAE uses predictions to guide active experimentation.
problem Efficiently guiding experimental sampling based on predictions.
method PGAE framework that combines predictions and actual outcomes.
result PGAE achieves asymptotic optimality and efficiency.
Generative model predicts daily activity sequences with duration-aware dynamics.
problem Accurately forecasting granular daily activity sequences for energy demand.
method Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics.
result Explicitly modeling activity durations improves predictive performance.
Many real-world problems can be formalized as predicting links in a partially observed network. Examples include Facebook friendship suggestions, consumer-product recommendations, and the identification of hidden interactions between actors in a crime network. Several link prediction algorithms, notably those recently …
Bayesian model predicts online activity participation.
problem Predicting the number of new users initiating an activity.
method Simple Bayesian approach for online activity sample sizes.
result Effective in predicting sample size for online experiments.
fMRI semantic category understanding using linguistic encoding models attempt to learn a forward mapping that relates stimuli to the corresponding brain activation. Classical encoding models use linear multi-variate methods to predict the brain activation (all voxels) given the stimulus. However, these methods essentia…
CPATTA uses conformal prediction for efficient test-time adaptation.
problem Low data selection efficiency in existing ATTA methods.
method Conformal Prediction, online weight-update algorithm, domain-shift detector, staged update scheme.
result CPATTA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 5% in accuracy.
Model predicts individual insurance claim reserves using activation patterns.
problem Accurately predicting individual claim reserves in insurance contracts.
method Multinomial logistic regression to model claim activation and development.
result The model generates accurate predictions of total and per coverage reserves.
Research uses deep learning and copulas to predict multivariate survival data.
problem Handling right-censored and correlated multivariate survival data.
method Integrates deep learning, copula functions, and survival analysis. Uses copula-based activation functions to model nonlinear dependencies.
result Enhanced prediction accuracy for multivariate survival responses.
Unified Bayesian model explains in-context learning and activation steering in LLMs.
problem Understanding and controlling the behavior of large language models (LLMs) through prompts and activations.
method Developed a Bayesian model to explain and predict the effects of in-context learning and activation steering.
result Unified model predicts distinct phases and sudden shifts in LLM behavior, explaining prior empirical phenomena.
Active Kriging Monte Carlo simulation method with conformal certification for failure probability estimation
problem Failure probability estimation in structural reliability analysis
method Active learning framework with conformal prediction
result Improved uncertainty quantification and reliability of failure probability estimates
Machine learning predicts phase behavior in active matter suspensions.
problem Predicting phase behavior in active matter systems using machine learning.
method Used deep learning techniques, including fully connected networks and graph neural networks, to predict motility-induced phase separation (MIPS) in ABP suspensions.
result Strong agreement between machine learning predictions and MIPS binodal from simulations, suggesting machine learning as an effective method for phase behavior determination.
Paper predicts crimes using historical data and machine learning.
problem Predicting and preventing crime activities.
method Supervised learning with decision tree, k-nearest neighbor, Random Forest, and Adaboost algorithms.
result The system predicts crimes with better accuracy using historical data.
This paper proposes a geometry-aware active learning framework for spatiotemporal dynamic systems.
problem Challenges in modeling complex dynamic systems with 3D geometries and time evolution.
method Geometry-aware spatiotemporal Gaussian Process (G-ST-GP) and adaptive active learning strategy.
result The proposed framework outperforms traditional methods in predicting high-dimensional dynamic behaviors.
Hybridizes physical and data-driven methods for predicting physicochemical properties.
problem Predicting physicochemical properties accurately using limited data.
method Distills physical method predictions into a prior model and combines with sparse experimental data using Bayesian inference.
result Significant improvements in predicting activity coefficients at infinite dilution compared to baselines and ensemble methods.
Deep learning predicts stress levels from mouse hippocampus activity.
problem Stress level in mice under different environments.
method Deep learning combined with neuron decoding.
result Deep learning model accurately predicts stress levels.
GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification for pretrained networks.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimates for pretrained models are challenging.
method Post-hoc Gaussian Process Activations (GAPA) method that shifts Bayesian modeling from weights to activations.
result GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification without altering the backbone's predictions.