This paper examines how institutional liquidity affects prediction markets.
problem How institutional liquidity impacts prediction markets and their quality.
method Defines a market-quality lens, separates channels, and uses synthetic microstructure lab.
result Institutional liquidity does not necessarily translate to equal gains for all traders.
TRADES generates realistic market simulations for financial modeling.
problem Generating realistic and responsive market simulations for financial tasks.
method TRADES uses a transformer-based denoising diffusion probabilistic engine to generate time series order flows conditioned on market state.
result TRADES improves market simulation metrics by 3.27-3.48 over state-of-the-art (SoTA) methods.
A new method uses diffusion models to simulate financial markets accurately.
problem Generating realistic synthetic financial market data.
method Diffusion model approach with efficient numerical integration.
result Synthetic data closely matches observed market data in key aspects.
Generative tools mimic stock market traders using synthetic data.
problem Imitating trading behavior of stock market participants.
method Modified state-space model applied to limit order book data, trained on synthetic data generated from a heterogeneous agent-based model.
result Model's predicted distribution matches ground truths from the agent-based model.
The study confirms that market volatility can be explained by correlated metaorders impacting prices in a square-root fashion.
problem Explaining market volatility using metaorders and their impact.
method Generated synthetic market data and analyzed the correlation between order flow and returns.
result The square-root law of market impact is confirmed and can be measured from anonymized trade data.
Framework generates precise synthetic populations for scalable modeling.
problem Generating accurate synthetic populations without personal data.
method Constraint-programming framework encoding aggregated statistics and structural relations.
result Exact control of demographic profiles without requiring microdata.
DSLOB creates synthetic LOB data for benchmarking forecasting algorithms under distributional shifts.
problem Challenges in dealing with out-of-distribution limit order book data.
method Multi-agent market simulator to create labeled synthetic LOB dataset with and without market stress.
result Demonstrates the need for robust forecasting algorithms to handle distributional shifts.
GAN improves financial risk prediction by generating synthetic minority events.
problem Data imbalance in financial market supervision.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) to generate synthetic data.
result GAN-generated synthetic data significantly improves prediction accuracy.
A novel approach using graph learning and synthetic long positions for statistical arbitrage in options markets.
problem Exploiting statistical arbitrage opportunities in options markets using machine learning.
method Two-stage graph learning approach: first stage defines a novel prediction target isolating pure arbitrages via synthetic bonds; second stage proposes SLSA positions.
result Statistically significant outperformance of GL baselines and consistent positive returns with an average P&L-contract information ratio of 0.1627.
This paper uses CausalGANs and RL with LLM to predict bond yields.
problem Challenges in financial bond yield forecasting due to data scarcity and market conditions.
method Proposes a novel framework combining CausalGANs, RL, and LLM for synthetic data generation and trading signals.
result Improves forecasting performance over existing methods with low Mean Absolute Error.
Generative Adversarial Networks simulate realistic market interactions.
problem Lack of agent-level historical data limits market simulation realism.
method Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGANs) trained on real data.
result CGAN-based synthetic market generator outperforms previous methods in market responsiveness and realism.
DARL uses DDPMs to generate synthetic market crash scenarios for robust portfolio optimization.
problem Challenges in capturing complex market dynamics and aligning with diverse investor preferences.
method Synergistic integration of DDPMs and DRL for portfolio management.
result DARL outperforms traditional methods in delivering superior risk-adjusted returns and resilience against crises.
Variational autoencoders help estimate missing volatility data.
problem Estimating missing points on partially observed volatility surfaces.
method Derive latent variables, construct synthetic surfaces fitting available data.
result Synthetic volatility surfaces can be used for stress testing and exotic option valuation.
This paper uses deep generative models to create synthetic financial data for portfolio and risk modeling.
problem Challenges in empirical research due to privacy, accessibility, and reproducibility issues in financial data.
method Investigates the use of Time-series Generative Adversarial Networks (TimeGAN) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to generate synthetic financial return series.
result Synthetic data from TimeGAN closely mimics real financial data in distributional shapes, volatility, and autocorrelation.
ProteuS generates synthetic financial data with regime changes for testing drift detection.
problem Simulating concept drift in financial markets for model evaluation.
method ARMA-GARCH models fitted to ETF data, generating synthetic time series with predefined regime changes.
result Generated datasets reveal the complexity of detecting and adapting to market regime changes.
Proposes TNCM-VAE for generating causal financial time series.
problem Lack of causal reasoning in market generators.
method Combines VAE with structural causal models, enforcing causal constraints through DAGs and using causal Wasserstein distance.
result Superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation, L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10.
Synthetic data improves financial models without real data.
problem Lack of real financial data due to privacy and regulation.
method Application of synthetic data across various financial data types.
result Synthetic data enhances financial model accuracy and fairness.
Study improves detection of cryptocurrency pump-and-dump schemes.
problem Class imbalance in P&D detection due to rare events.
method Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and ensemble learning models.
result XGBoost and LightGBM achieved high recall rates (94.87% and 93.59%) with strong F1-scores.
A TTA framework improves forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
method Normalization-based test-time adaptation for causal timeseries forecasting and direction classification.
result Normalization-based TTA improves forecasting error in synthetic gradual drift and can even hurt in aggressive norm-only adaptation in financial markets.
Agent-based model simulates speculative electronic market with price bubbles.
problem Understanding speculative behavior and price bubbles in electronic markets.
method Agent-based model with two types of traders: mean reverting and speculative.
result Speculative traders lead to increased volatility and price deviations from fundamental value.
Bayesian framework improves trading robustness against market shifts.
problem Insufficient robustness and overfitting in trading models.
method Bayesian Robust Framework integrating macro-conditioned GAN and adversarial learning.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art models in diverse financial instruments.
The paper uses deep learning to detect financial market regimes from correlation matrices.
problem Detecting financial market regimes from correlation dynamics.
method Representation learning on block hierarchical SPD correlation matrices using SPDNet, SPD-NetBN, and U-SPDNet models.
result Deep learning models overfit in financial market data, misleading performance metrics.
Study improves early warning models for currency and stock market crises.
problem Predicting currency and stock market crises.
method Synthetic review and comparison of early warning models, focusing on crisis identifications and predictive models.
result SWARCH model with elastic thresholding methodology most accurately classifies crisis observations.
TSFMs improve financial forecasting from diverse datasets.
problem Challenges in forecasting financial time series due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data.
method Empirical study of TSFMs in global financial markets, evaluating zero-shot inference, fine-tuning, and pre-training from scratch.
result Pre-trained TSFMs on financial data achieve substantial forecasting and economic improvements, highlighting the value of domain-specific adaptation.
Generates realistic stock market order streams using GANs.
problem Creating high-fidelity stock market data.
method Conditional Wasserstein GAN with auction mechanism and order-book augmentation.
result Generated data is close to real market data.
This paper proposes a joint energy and data market to handle uncertainty in energy procurement.
problem Handling uncertainty in energy markets through data markets.
method Modeling a day-ahead retailer energy procurement problem with uncertain demand, integrating forecasting and optimisation, and using differential privacy.
result The value of joint energy and data clearing is highlighted through numerical case studies.
The paper proposes a machine learning framework for portfolio optimization with limited data.
problem Low data environments and regime uncertainty in portfolio optimization.
method A teacher-student learning pipeline with CVaR optimizer generating supervisory labels and neural models trained on real and synthetic data.
result Student models can match or outperform the CVaR teacher and achieve improved robustness under regime shifts.
Paper uses HPCA for better stock correlation modeling.
problem Challenges in modeling cross-sectional correlations between thousands of stocks.
method Hierarchical Principal Component Analysis (HPCA) and statistical clustering.
result HPCA provides better cross-sectional correlations than classic PCA.
Researchers validate LMF order-splitting theory using public JSE data.
problem Lack of reproducibility and cross-market validation of LMF theory due to proprietary data.
method Synthetic metaorder reconstruction using publicly available JSE data.
result LMF theory validated using JSE data for 100 largest stocks.
Develops a three-currency HJM framework for Brazilian credit markets, finding significant credit spread differences between indexed segments.
problem Identifies and quantifies differences in corporate credit spreads between two parallel segments of the Brazilian bond market.
method Uses a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework to model corporate credit as a separate economy, linking it to nominal and real economies through synthetic rates.
result Empirically finds a 640 basis point average difference in credit spreads between CDI-indexed and IPCA-indexed segments, stable through market cycles.
Study uses put-call parity to estimate cost of funding in equity derivatives markets.
problem Estimating the cost of funding in active equity derivative markets.
method Develops a method using European put and call prices to recover the implicit discount factor and cost of funding.
result Identifies the cost of funding in major equity markets, showing it is typically around 34 basis points above OIS.
Kronos improves financial time series analysis with a pre-trained model.
problem Limited application of large-scale models to financial candlestick data.
method Unified, scalable pre-training framework for financial K-line modeling.
result Kronos excels in financial tasks like price forecasting and volatility prediction.
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for pricing under credit, collateral and funding risks into term structure modellin…
Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction …
New method finds better arbitrage opportunities in AMMs.
problem Finding optimal arbitrage trades in multi-token AMMs.
method Closed-form solutions using convex optimisation.
result Better arbitrage opportunities than traditional methods.
HapNet predicts marketing campaign effects using a hierarchical structure.
problem Complex and challenging effect prediction for marketing campaigns.
method Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet).
result HapNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both synthetic and real data.
Study recovers investor preferences from portfolio data using synthetic data and robust optimization.
problem Recovering latent investor preferences from observed portfolio allocations under uncertainty.
method Inverse portfolio optimization framework integrating robust optimization and regret-based inference.
result Accurate recovery of transaction cost parameters and partial identifiability of ESG penalties under preference misspecification and market shocks.
Neural FGP learns portfolio generating functions from data.
problem Portfolio optimisation challenges in estimating drifts and covariances.
method Neural network approach to learn G(⋅) from market data. result Neural FGP outperforms classical benchmarks.
In this study, we focus on the market clearing problem of Turkish day-ahead electricity market. We propose a mathematical model by extending the variety of bid types for different price regions. The commercial solvers may not find any feasible solution for the proposed problem in some instances within the given time li…
Financial Wind Tunnel generates versatile market data for model testing.
problem Inconsistent market dynamics across different scales and sources.
method Retrieval-augmented diffusion-based simulator integrating macro and micro patterns.
result Enhanced performance and adaptability of downstream models in complex markets.
TradeFM learns market microstructure from trade events, improving financial model accuracy.
problem Lack of generalizable models for market microstructure.
method Generative Transformer model trained on billions of trade events, using scale-invariant features and universal tokenization.
result TradeFM generates rollouts that match key stylized facts of financial returns and outperforms existing models.
Study uses SABR model to create implied volatilities from sparse quotes.
problem Creating accurate implied volatility surfaces from limited market data.
method Multitask Gaussian process with SABR model embeddings and hierarchical regularization.
result Model produces more accurate volatilities than single-task methods.
The paper uses machine learning to simulate financial markets and improve trading strategy backtesting.
problem Improving risk management of quantitative investment strategies.
method Simulates financial markets using Boltzmann Machines and Generative Adversarial Networks to preserve asset return distributions and dependencies.
result Developed a framework to estimate backtest statistics more accurately.
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
problem Uncertainty in AI adoption and pricing of compute capital.
method An asset-pricing framework for compute futures, including synthetic futures pricing.
result Preliminary evidence suggests a positive compute risk premium.
SFAG generates realistic financial data that passes trading tests.
problem Financial generative models often produce unrealistic and unstable trading outcomes.
method Introduces SFAG, a GAN variant that aligns stylized facts and optimizes with adversarial loss.
result SFAG generates synthetic data that preserves stylized facts and supports robust trading strategies.
This paper systematizes knowledge on synthetic assets in crypto.
problem Disparate academic literature on synthetic assets in crypto.
method Broad perspective, general framework, data-driven analyses.
result Highlights risks and areas of research interest in synthetic assets.
New method calibrates financial market simulators using neural networks.
problem Calibrating market simulators to specific trading periods.
method Neural density estimators and embedding networks.
result Approach accurately identifies high-probability parameter sets.
Algorithm learns fair division from noisy feedback in uncertain markets.
problem Learning fair division in uncertain markets with noisy feedback.
method Wrapper algorithms using dual averaging to learn item and agent values from bandit feedback.
result Asymptotically achieves optimal Nash social welfare in linear Fisher markets.