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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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144289433577 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Monte Carlo score estimation

A new method samples from a target density without initial samples using Monte Carlo estimation of the score.

problem Sampling from a target density without initial samples.
method Monte Carlo estimation of the score using oracle access to the log likelihood.
result Samples can be produced from the target density without needing initial samples.

A new Monte Carlo sampling method derived from reverse diffusion.

problem Sampling from complex distributions, especially multi-modal ones.
method Transforming score matching into mean estimation; estimating means of regularized posterior distributions.
result rdMC can approximate sampling with any desired accuracy and is significantly faster than MCMC for complex distributions.

Develops diffusion samplers for target distributions with efficient score and density estimates.

problem Estimating scores and densities for time-varying distributions.
method Sequential Monte Carlo with diffusion paths and control variates.
result Effective samplers for time-varying distributions with theoretical guarantees and practical applications.

SRMC framework reduces Monte Carlo variance by history-based sampling in high-dimensional spaces.

problem Efficient sampling in high-dimensional discrete or continuous state spaces.
method Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes history through running average of score evaluations.
result Improves estimator variance and mode coverage with constant memory usage.

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic gradients. We propose variance reduction by means of Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sam…

2018-07-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved diffusion models using energy distillation and sequential Monte Carlo.

problem Training instability and inferior performance in energy parameterized diffusion models.
method Introduced a novel training regime for energy functions through distillation of pre-trained diffusion models, and cast the sampling procedure as a Feynman Kac model.
result Demonstrated improved performance and new sampling techniques.

New method improves training-free guidance for diffusion models, achieving state-of-the-art results.

problem Accurate, training-free guidance for conditional generation in diffusion models.
method Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework with Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) variance reduction.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets with significant cost reduction.

A new method for estimating density ratios in high dimensions.

problem Difficulty in accurately comparing probability distributions in high-dimensional settings.
method Divide-and-conquer approach via an infinite continuum of bridge distributions and time score matching.
result The proposed method effectively estimates density ratios and performs well on complex datasets.

Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.

problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.

This paper is a broad and accessible survey of the methods we have at our disposal for Monte Carlo gradient estimation in machine learning and across the statistical sciences: the problem of computing the gradient of an expectation of a function with respect to parameters defining the distribution that is integrated; t…

2019-06-25abs ↗pdf ↗

New method uses zeroth-order queries to approximate proximal sampling efficiently.

problem Approximating proximal sampling with zeroth-order information.
method Direct simulation of heat flow dynamics, treating intermediate distribution as Gaussian mixture.
result Inherits exponential convergence under isoperimetric conditions, avoids rejection sampling.

Paper tackles sampling from non-log-concave distributions using denoising diffusion.

problem Sampling from non-log-concave distributions efficiently.
method DDMC framework, Zeroth-Order Diffusion Monte Carlo (ZOD-MC) algorithm.
result ZOD-MC achieves inverse polynomial dependence on sampling accuracy, efficient for low dimensions.

We develop a new method to estimate failure probabilities in complex systems.

problem Estimating failure probabilities in safety-critical autonomous systems is challenging due to the rarity of failures and large state spaces.
method We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm that minimizes forward Kullback-Leibler divergence and uses Markov score ascent methods.
result Our method provides more accurate failure probability estimates than existing techniques.

A novel diffusion method for Bayesian posterior sampling with theoretical guarantees.

problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions in Bayesian inversion.
method Diffusion-based posterior sampling using Langevin dynamics and PnP framework.
result The method converges even for multi-modal posterior distributions with theoretical error bounds.

Unbiased method for Bayesian posterior means using kinetic Langevin dynamics.

problem Estimating Bayesian posterior means efficiently and accurately.
method Combines advanced splitting methods with enhanced gradient approximations in a multilevel Monte Carlo approach.
result The method achieves unbiased estimates with finite variance and central limit theorem properties.

This paper analyzes error bounds for biased SMC samplers in conditional sampling.

problem Analyzing error bounds for biased SMC samplers in conditional sampling.
method Develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for SMC samplers with biased mutation kernels.
result Derives the first non-asymptotic error bound for conditional sampling with score-based diffusion models.

Training-free model learns SDE dynamics without training, accelerating parameter studies.

problem High computational cost of simulating parameter-dependent SDEs.
method Training-free conditional diffusion model with joint kernel-weighted Monte Carlo estimator.
result Accurate approximation of conditional distributions across varying parameter values.

VT-DIS improves sampling from Boltzmann distributions with minimal overhead.

problem Bias in Monte Carlo estimates from score-based diffusion models.
method Variance-Tuned Diffusion Importance Sampling (VT-DIS) adapts noise covariance to correct bias.
result VT-DIS achieves effective sample sizes of 80%, 35%, and 3.5% on benchmarks, using less computational budget.

EnSF improves accuracy in tracking high-dimensional nonlinear systems.

problem Low accuracy in high-dimensional, nonlinear filtering problems.
method Score-based diffusion model, mini-batch Monte Carlo estimator.
result EnSF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in tracking high-dimensional systems.

VB-Score evaluates AI systems without ground truth, revealing robustness.

problem Evaluating AI systems without ground truth labels, especially for entity-centric tasks.
method VB-Score uses variance-bounded evaluation, constraint relaxation, and Monte Carlo sampling.
result VB-Score reveals robustness differences not seen by conventional frameworks.

New estimator reduces nested expectation estimation costs.

problem Estimating repeatedly nested expectations is computationally expensive.
method Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth (READ) using randomized multilevel Monte Carlo.
result Optimal computational cost of O(ε^(-2)) for every fixed D.

New MCMC method improves sampling from multimodal distributions.

problem Sampling from multimodal distributions is challenging for classical MCMC methods.
method Interpolating along the diffusion path, preserving mode weights and mixing properties.
result MAD-Path sampler improves global exploration and mode-weight estimation.

The paper improves Monte Carlo methods for optimization problems.

problem Efficiently solving optimization problems with biased Monte Carlo estimators.
method Introduces Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) within Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
result Establishes uniform convergence and sample complexity for MLMC in SAA.

Develops a multilevel Monte Carlo framework with dropout for efficient uncertainty quantification.

problem Efficiently quantify uncertainty in complex models using dropout.
method Integrates multilevel Monte Carlo with Monte Carlo dropout, creating coupled estimators to reduce variance.
result Demonstrates significant variance reduction and efficiency gains over single-level Monte Carlo dropout.

New insights into variational inference using Monte Carlo estimates.

problem Improving variational bounds in latent variable models.
method Analyzing properties of Monte Carlo estimates and their impact on variational gaps.
result Negative correlation reduces variational gaps, contrary to intuition.

Quantum computing offers a quadratic speedup for estimating non-linear functionals.

problem Estimating non-linear functionals of probability distributions.
method Proposes a quantum-inside-quantum Monte Carlo algorithm for a broad class of non-linear estimation problems.
result Achieves a quadratic speedup for non-linear estimation problems, including nested conditional expectations and stochastic optimization.

A new method for state estimation in state-space models using incomplete data.

problem State estimation in nonlinear state-space models with incomplete observations.
method Statistical analysis of incomplete observations, score function, observed information matrices, EM-gradient-particle filtering.
result Maximum likelihood estimation of state-vector with explicit form of observed information matrix.

Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo improves probability estimation for complex random variables.

problem Estimating probabilities of complex random variables with multiple approximations.
method Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo framework for discontinuous functionals.
result Achieves optimal computational complexities for both smooth and discontinuous functionals.

Develops a local Fokker--Planck geometric framework for more accurate score estimation.

problem Inaccurate estimation of score function in non-linear, state-dependent drifts.
method Local Fokker--Planck geometric framework, time change to cumulative-variance coordinate, heat-ball mean-value representations, exact high-dimensional sampling.
result Exact local mean-value representations for the score and density, improved accuracy in low-density regions.

SBMC method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.

problem Improving uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo method using a model and parallel SMC/MCMC algorithm.
result SBMC achieves comparable or better accuracy and improved uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art methods.

A novel score-based method solves high-dimensional Fokker-Planck equations with improved accuracy and speed.

problem High-dimensional Fokker-Planck equations suffer from the curse of dimensionality, leading to numerical errors and slow sampling.
method Score-based Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) that fit the score function in SDEs, using three methods: Score Matching, Sliced Score Matching, and Score-PINN.
result The score-based method outperforms traditional Monte Carlo and vanilla PINNs in high-dimensional settings, offering faster sampling and reduced errors.