We introduce a new category of multivariate conditional generative models and demonstrate its performance and versatility in probabilistic time series forecasting and simulation. Specifically, the output of quantile regression networks is expanded from a set of fixed quantiles to the whole Quantile Function by a univar…
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48 results for “Implicit Quantile Networks”
Generative Bayesian Computation improves surrogates for expensive simulations.
problem Limitations of Gaussian process surrogates in handling complex, non-stationary data.
method Generative Bayesian Computation via Implicit Quantile Networks (IQNs).
result Generative Bayesian Computation outperforms traditional Gaussian process methods across various benchmarks.
We introduce autoregressive implicit quantile networks (AIQN), a fundamentally different approach to generative modeling than those commonly used, that implicitly captures the distribution using quantile regression. AIQN is able to achieve superior perceptual quality and improvements in evaluation metrics, without incu…
In this work, we build on recent advances in distributional reinforcement learning to give a generally applicable, flexible, and state-of-the-art distributional variant of DQN. We achieve this by using quantile regression to approximate the full quantile function for the state-action return distribution. By reparameter…
A new RL method improves performance on Atari games without complex techniques.
problem Improving reinforcement learning performance on Atari games.
method Adding scaled log-policy to immediate reward in DQN.
result The modified DQN outperforms Rainbow on Atari games.
IQ-BART models conditional quantiles using a non-parametric Bayesian approach.
problem Capturing multimodal predictive distributions in time series forecasting.
method Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) augments data with quantile values for non-parametric quantile function estimation.
result IQ-BART provides flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees.
QR-MIX models joint state-action values as a distribution to handle randomness in MARL.
problem Randomness in rewards and observations leads to randomness in long-term returns in MARL.
method QR-MIX uses quantile regression and combines it with QMIX and IQN to model joint state-action values as a distribution.
result QR-MIX outperforms QMIX in the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) environment.
SLS optimizes minimum-volume regions for conditional quantiles, bypassing density estimation.
problem Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage.
method Super-level-set regression (SLS) directly optimizes geometric boundaries of conditional level sets.
result SLS optimizes regions directly, capturing complex conditional structures end-to-end.
New neural networks learn distribution functions using quantiles and moments.
problem Approximating functions of distributions in probability spaces.
method Quantile and moment neural networks, mixing quantile and moment features.
result Moment neural network outperforms others for bivariate distributions.
SCQRNN prevents quantile crossing and improves computational efficiency.
problem Quantile crossing issue in regression models.
method Integrates ad hoc sorting in training to prevent quantile crossing and enhance computational efficiency.
result SCQRNN achieves faster convergence and non-intersecting quantiles.
Introduces NQ network for non-crossing quantile learning.
problem Quantile crossing issue in distributional learning.
method Non-negative activation functions ensure monotonic distributions.
result Effective for distributional reinforcement learning and causal effect estimation.
Quantile regression with ReLU networks achieves minimax rates for various function types.
problem Estimating quantiles from covariates with neural networks.
method Quantile regression with rectified linear unit (ReLU) neural networks.
result ReLU networks achieve minimax rates for broad collections of function types.
Learning Quantile Functions without Quantile Crossing for Distribution-free Time Series Forecastingcs.LG
A new method avoids quantile crossing in time series forecasting.
problem Quantile crossing in joint quantile regressions.
method Incremental (Spline) Quantile Functions (I(S)QF) with neural network.
result Improves consistency and accuracy in time series forecasting.
Improves calibration of regression models without requiring additional data.
problem Poor calibration of regression models leading to unreliable predictions.
method Quantile regularizer based on cumulative KL divergence.
result Significantly improves calibration for regression models trained with Dropout VI and Deep Ensembles.
ConquerNet smooths quantile regression for deep learning with minimax guarantees.
problem Optimization challenges in quantile regression for deep models.
method ConquerNet uses convolution-smoothed quantile ReLU neural networks.
result ConquerNet provides minimax guarantees and outperforms standard quantile neural networks.
SPQR package uses neural networks for flexible quantile regression.
problem Flexible modeling of non-linear relationships in quantile regression.
method Monotonic splines and neural networks for density estimation; model-agnostic covariate effects.
result Allows for non-linear and quantile-specific effects.
Deep neural networks enforce non-crossing quantile regression curves.
problem Estimating quantile regression curves without crossing.
method Penalized deep ReQU neural networks with a non-crossing penalty.
result Established non-asymptotic risk and error bounds for the estimated QRP.
Deep Huber QRNs predict Huber quantiles for house prices.
problem Predicting more functionals of predictive probability distributions.
method Training a DL algorithm with the Huber quantile scoring function.
result DHQRNs provide satisfactory absolute performance in house price prediction.
This work improves distribution recovery from sparse data using Random Forest implicit regularization.
problem Distribution recovery from limited statistics.
method Closed-form estimator for scaled beta distributions, using composite quantile and moment matching.
result Improved classification accuracy through closed-form distribution recovery and implicit regularization.
Paper develops a neural network method for censored survival analysis.
problem Distribution-free quantile prediction for censored survival data.
method Develops a novel neural network algorithm for simultaneous quantile optimization.
result The algorithm produces better calibrated quantiles on real datasets.
Investigates methods to regularize quantile regression for accurate predictions.
problem Improving accuracy and fairness in quantile regression predictions.
method Various regularization techniques including expected pinball loss, monotonicity constraints, and rate constraints.
result Deep lattice networks can maintain non-crossing quantiles and improve calibration and fairness.
Panel semiparametric quantile regression neural network for electricity consumption forecastingstat.ML
PSQRNN model forecasts electricity consumption in China by integrating neural networks and quantile regression.
problem Electricity forecasting in China due to regional economic, social, and natural conditions.
method PSQRNN combines neural networks and semiparametric quantile regression to model electricity consumption.
result PSQRNN model outperforms traditional methods in forecasting electricity consumption in China.
Paper studies the theoretical equivalence between implicit and explicit neural networks in high dimensions.
problem Lack of theoretical analysis of implicit and explicit neural networks.
method Examined high-dimensional implicit neural networks and established their equivalence to explicit networks.
result Equivalence between implicit and explicit neural networks in high dimensions.
This paper shows how to train only the implicit layer of overparameterized implicit neural networks.
problem Understanding how the implicit layer contributes to the training of overparameterized implicit neural networks.
method Restricting training to only the implicit layer and analyzing the generalization error for ReLU-activated networks.
result Global convergence is guaranteed even if only the implicit layer is trained, and gradient flow with proper random initialization can achieve small generalization errors.
Point forecasting of univariate time series is a challenging problem with extensive work having been conducted. However, nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of time series, such as in the form of quantiles or prediction intervals is an even more challenging problem. In an effort to expand the possible forecasting p…
Develops a new method for sampling from Bayesian credible sets using deep generative quantile learning.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in high-dimensional spaces with intractable likelihoods.
method Uses deep neural networks to implicitly sample from Bayesian credible sets via a push-forward mapping and Monge-Kantorovich depth.
result Demonstrates improved performance and theoretical consistency of the quantile learning framework.
MQF forecasts multivariate quantiles globally.
problem Forecasting multi-horizon dependencies with error accumulation.
method Multivariate quantile function using input-convex neural networks.
result MQF avoids quantile crossing and captures time dependency.
Nonparametric efficient inference for network quantile causal effects under partial interferencestat.ME
Study efficient inference for network quantile causal effects with partial interference.
problem Estimating network causal effects on outcome quantiles with partial interference.
method Developed a nonparametric efficiency theory and a nonparametrically efficient estimator using a three-way cross-fitting procedure.
result Proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and allows flexible estimation of nuisance functions.
Deep learning improves quantile regression for censored survival data.
problem Predicting nonlinear patterns in censored survival data.
method Neural network with adjusted check function for inverse censoring distribution.
result Deep learning outperforms traditional quantile regression methods in prediction accuracy.
Predicts asset return distributions using LSTM and quantile regression.
problem Predicting complex asset return distributions.
method Two-stage approach: quantile prediction using asset-specific features, market data adjustment.
result Significantly outperforms existing models (98% improvement over baseline).
Gradient descent converges to a global minimum in nonlinear ReLU implicit networks with linear width.
problem Understanding convergence of gradient methods in nonlinear, infinitely deep ReLU networks.
method Introduced a scaling constant to ensure well-posedness of the equilibrium equation, proving convergence to a global minimum for linear width networks.
result Gradient descent converges to a global minimum at a linear rate for nonlinear ReLU implicit networks with linear width.
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form…
Quantum Quantile Mechanics: Solving Stochastic Differential Equations for Generating Time-Seriesquant-ph
Quantum algorithm samples from SDEs using DQCs and quantile mechanics.
problem Sampling from solutions of stochastic differential equations.
method Differentiable quantum circuits (DQCs) encoding latent variables, quantile mechanics.
result Quantum algorithm generates time-series from SDEs.
Proposes a non-crossing deep neural network quantile regression method.
problem Quantile crossing in nonparametric quantile regression.
method Non-crossing constraints via rectified linear unit penalty function.
result Established non-asymptotic upper bounds for excess risk.
The paper describes flows of MMD functionals with distance kernel and quantile functions.
problem Wasserstein gradient flows of MMD functionals with negative distance kernel.
method Characterization via Cauchy problem on , solution via subdifferential construction.
result Flow invariance and smoothing properties on subsets of , absolute continuity of initial measures.
Implicit Regularization in Hierarchical Tensor Factorization and Deep Convolutional Neural Networkscs.LG
The paper explains implicit regularization in hierarchical tensor factorization and deep CNNs.
problem Understanding implicit regularization in complex neural network architectures.
method Theoretical analysis using dynamical systems to overcome challenges in hierarchy.
result Established implicit regularization towards low hierarchical tensor rank, equivalent to locality in CNNs.
PE-GQNN improves spatial data prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Poor calibration of predictive distributions in spatial data models.
method Combines PE-GNNs with Quantile Neural Networks and recalibration techniques.
result PE-GQNN outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL) differs from traditional RL in that, rather than the expectation of total returns, it estimates distributions and has achieved state-of-the-art performance on Atari Games. The key challenge in practical distributional RL algorithms lies in how to parameterize estimated distrib…
This paper proves SGD converges to global minimum for over-parameterized ReLU networks.
problem Theoretical understanding of implicit neural networks is limited.
method Gradient flow analysis of ReLU activated implicit neural networks.
result Randomly initialized gradient descent converges to global minimum at a linear rate for square loss function in over-parameterized ReLU networks.
Sequential quantile estimation refers to incorporating observations into quantile estimates in an incremental fashion thus furnishing an online estimate of one or more quantiles at any given point in time. Sequential quantile estimation is also known as online quantile estimation. This area is relevant to the analysis …
Gradient descent on ReLU networks with square loss implicitly favors balanced weights.
problem Understanding implicit regularization in nonlinear neural networks with regression losses.
method Analyzing gradient descent dynamics on ReLU networks with square loss.
result It is impossible to characterize the implicit regularization of ReLU networks with square loss by any explicit function of model parameters.
Implicit discourse relation classification is of great challenge due to the lack of connectives as strong linguistic cues, which motivates the use of annotated implicit connectives to improve the recognition. We propose a feature imitation framework in which an implicit relation network is driven to learn from another …
Deep model tackles claim size modeling with quantile-based regression.
problem Actuarial claim size modeling difficulty with no simple distribution.
method Deep composite regression model with quantile splicing point.
result Deep neural network regression models show superiority over classical approaches.
The study provides a generalization bound for a family of implicit networks.
problem Theoretical understanding of implicit networks' generalization is limited.
method A generalization bound is derived for a family of implicit networks using a covering number argument for Rademacher complexity.
result A theoretical generalization bound is established for implicit networks.
CQNPs enhance predictive performance and distribution modeling using quantile regression.
problem Limited predictive likelihood of Gaussian models for complex distributions.
method Introducing Conditional Quantile Neural Processes (CQNPs) that focus on estimating informative quantiles.
result Significant improvements in predictive performance and better modeling of multimodal distributions.
Uncertainty estimation of machine learning spatial precipitation predictions from satellite datastat.ML
New algorithms improve uncertainty estimation in satellite precipitation predictions.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates in machine learning spatial precipitation predictions from satellite data.
method Benchmarked six algorithms including LightGBM, compared using quantile scoring functions and rules.
result LightGBM outperformed other algorithms in quantile scoring rule by 11.10%.
The paper analyzes implicit regularization in tensor factorization using neural networks.
problem Understanding implicit regularization in tensor factorization.
method Dynamical systems perspective and gradient descent analysis.
result Gradient descent induces a form of greedy low tensor rank search.
We showcase how Quantile Regression (QR) can be applied to forecast financial returns using Limit Order Books (LOBs), the canonical data source of high-frequency financial time-series. We develop a deep learning architecture that simultaneously models the return quantiles for both buy and sell positions. We test our mo…