Improved estimators for causal inference using cross-fitting and undersmoothing.
problem Estimating expected conditional covariance in causal inference.
method Double cross-fit doubly robust (DCDR) estimators with undersmoothing for non-smooth nuisance functions.
result DCDR estimators achieve n \sqrt{n} n -consistency and asymptotic normality under minimal conditions. New estimators improve causal inference in machine learning studies.
problem Improving causal inference in machine learning models.
method Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators for average causal effect.
result Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators outperform other methods in simulations.
Meta-learners improve causal effect estimation in small samples.
problem Estimating causal effects using machine learning methods.
method Sample-splitting and cross-fitting to reduce overfitting bias.
result Meta-learners' performance depends on sample size and estimation procedure.
New CLT for AIPW estimator in high-dimensional settings.
problem Estimating ATE in high-dimensional covariate scenarios.
method Cross-fitting AIPW estimator with well-specified models.
result Established a new CLT for the scaled cross-fit AIPW.
Paper develops efficient DML estimators for multiway clustered data without cross-fitting.
problem Efficient inference in models with multiway clustered dependence.
method Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions combined with localisation-based empirical process approach.
result Valid inference achieved without cross-fitting, showing debiased GMM estimators are asymptotically linear and normal.
Develops a test for conditional local independence of counting processes.
problem Testing the hypothesis of conditional local independence among continuous time stochastic processes.
method Introduces a new functional parameter, the Local Covariance Measure (LCM), and proposes a test called (X)-LCT using nonparametric estimators and sample splitting or cross-fitting.
result The (X)-LCT test can be controlled uniformly with modest rates, and it works well without restrictive parametric assumptions.
Proposes a method to make statistical inferences robust in spatially dependent settings with missing at random labels.
problem Statistical inference challenges with missing at random labels and spatial dependence.
method Doubly robust estimator with cross-fit nuisances and jackknife spatial HAC variance correction.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals with improved finite-sample calibration.
Serverless cloud computing speeds up double machine learning model estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating double machine learning models with minimal cloud resource management.
method Serverless computing with AWS Lambda for repeated cross-fitting.
result Demonstrates significant reduction in estimation times and costs.
New method stabilizes machine learning predictions across random seeds.
problem Machine learning predictions vary across random seeds, causing instability.
method Introduces adaptive cross-bagging to eliminate seed dependence.
result Adaptive cross-bagging achieves targeted stability in debiased machine learning.
Proposes a new estimator for weak instrumental variables in panel data models.
problem Weak instrumental variables due to ignored nonlinearities in panel data.
method Triangular simultaneous equation model with a nonlinear reduced form equation and a control function approach using Super Learner.
result The proposed SLCF estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, achieving a parametric rate of convergence.
Paper combines machine learning and model averaging for robust parameter estimation.
problem Estimating structural parameters with partially unknown functional forms.
method Pairing double/debiased machine learning with stacking for model averaging.
result DDML with stacking is more robust to unknown functional forms than single learners.
New method for estimating covariance with robustness to outliers.
problem Estimating covariance from noisy data with outliers.
method Cross-fitted clipped covariance estimator with computable Bernstein certificates.
result The method balances certified stochastic error and robust hold-out proxy for clipping bias.
New method selects best HTE estimator without ground-truth treatment effects.
problem Selecting best HTE estimator from multiple candidates.
method Cross-fitted, exponentially weighted test statistic with two-way sample splitting.
result Empirically, reliable error control and reduced false selections.
Study efficient inference for network quantile causal effects with partial interference.
problem Estimating network causal effects on outcome quantiles with partial interference.
method Developed a nonparametric efficiency theory and a nonparametrically efficient estimator using a three-way cross-fitting procedure.
result Proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and allows flexible estimation of nuisance functions.
CPCR mitigates bias in PCR for overparameterized models.
problem Bias in Principal Component Regression (PCR) for overparameterized models.
method Calibrated Principal Component Regression (CPCR) learns a low-variance prior in the PC subspace and calibrates the model in the original feature space.
result CPCR outperforms standard PCR in overparameterized settings, improving prediction across multiple problems.
Machine learning reduces variance in online experiment results.
problem Reducing variance in randomized controlled trials.
method Machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect estimator (MLRATE).
result MLRATE reduces estimator variance by over 70% in A/A tests.
MEC improves efficiency and robustness in semi-supervised inference.
problem Efficient inference with limited labeled data and robust uncertainty quantification.
method Machine-Learning-Assisted Generalized Entropy Calibration (MEC) using cross-fitted, calibration-weighted PPI.
result MEC achieves semiparametric efficiency bounds under weaker assumptions and provides near-nominal coverage.
Proposes a method for inference in high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.
problem Lack of inference procedures for identifying driving factors in high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.
method Kernel-smoothed decorrelated score and cross-fitted version for hypothesis tests and interval estimators.
result Valid and superior inference methods for high-dimensional classification with non-differentiable surrogate losses.
Neyman's framework evaluates personalized treatment rules using experiments.
problem Evaluating the efficacy of individualized treatment rules derived by machine learning.
method Neyman's repeated sampling framework applied to cross-fitted ITRs.
result Ex-post evaluation of ITRs can be more efficient than random assignment.
Proposes a new estimator for causal mediation with continuous treatments.
problem Estimation of direct and indirect effects with continuous treatments.
method Kernel smoothing approach with cross-fitting for non-parametric estimation.
result Multiply robust and asymptotically normal estimator for continuous treatments.
Develops certificates for local population-risk increments using cross-fitted ridge calibration.
problem Certifying local population-risk increments in statistical models.
method Cross-fitted ridge calibration for linear feature classes, separating Taylor fluctuations and remainders.
result Certifies measurable updates from the same sample with penalties dependent on empirical geometry.
Bayesian X-Learner calibrates uncertainty and robustness for CATE estimation under heavy-tailed data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with calibrated uncertainty and robustness to heavy-tailed outcomes.
method Bayesian X-Learner using cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes and MCMC for a full posterior over CATE.
result Bayesian X-Learner achieves robust and calibrated CATE estimation on real and contaminated data.
Paper adapts DML for panel data, addressing unobserved heterogeneity.
problem Estimating causal effects with panel data and unobserved heterogeneity.
method Adapting double/debiased machine learning (DML) for panel data with predictive models based on correlated random effects.
result Predictive models based on correlated random effects within DML lead to accurate coefficient estimates.
The paper develops methods to estimate treatment effects in sample selection models.
problem Evaluation of treatments when outcomes are only observed for a subpopulation due to sample selection or attrition.
method Combines selection-on-observables and instrumental variable assumptions with double machine learning for treatment evaluation.
result Proposed estimators are asymptotically normal and root-n consistent.
DSL estimates heterogeneous treatment effects over time in survival settings.
problem Complicated by right censoring and time-varying treatment effects.
method Deep survival learner (DSL) for estimating CATEs over a clinically relevant time spectrum.
result DSL reveals heterogeneity in perioperative chemotherapy effects over time.
Proposes a method to learn policies from offline data with reduced bias.
problem Learning policies from offline data with reduced bias and complexity constraints.
method Cross-fitted debiasing device for policy learning from offline data.
result Achieves N \sqrt N N regret for complex policy classes with a product-of-errors nuisance remainder. New estimator for causal effects in large datasets.
problem Unobserved confounding in large-scale data.
method Doubly robust estimator combining imputation, IPW, and cross-fitting.
result Error converges to Gaussian distribution at parametric rate.
Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and cross-fitting, in settings where nuisance parameters are estimated using a new gene…
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In our leading example, we model CATE by interacting the base treatment variable w…
Proposes stabilized weights for causal inference using isotonic calibration.
problem Stability and bias issues in inverse propensity weighting.
method Post-hoc isotonic calibration of inverse propensity weights.
result Improves performance of doubly robust estimators of average treatment effect.
Semiparametric method removes bias in functional bilevel gradient estimation.
problem First-order bias in plug-in hypergradient when lower-level problem is nonparametric.
method Semiparametric debiasing theory based on efficient influence function leads to cross-fitted orthogonal hypergradient estimator.
result Asymptotic normality and uniform control over outer parameter established for the estimator.
Proposes new method for calibrating treatment effect predictors.
problem Calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects.
method Causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration.
result Achieves fast calibration rates under weak conditions.
A fundamental challenge in semi-supervised learning lies in the observed data's disproportional size when compared with the size of the data collected with missing outcomes. An implicit understanding is that the dataset with missing outcomes, being significantly larger, ought to improve estimation and inference. Howeve…
The study assesses external validity by evaluating worst-case treatment effects across subpopulations.
problem Underrepresentation of marginalized groups and limited study populations.
method Develops a semiparametrically efficient estimator for worst-case treatment effects (WTE) and uses cross-fitting to guard against brittle findings.
result The proposed framework guards against invalid findings due to unanticipated population shifts.
Knowledge distillation improves model accuracy by mimicking teacher model probabilities.
problem Improving model accuracy through model compression.
method Casting knowledge distillation as a semiparametric inference problem, deriving new guarantees, and developing enhancements.
result Enhancements improve student performance by mitigating teacher overfitting and underfitting.
TRA detects causal direction from bivariate data using geometric shapes.
problem Inferring causal direction from observational data is challenging and unreliable.
method TRA compares rank-based copula-standardized residual clouds to detect causal direction.
result TRA is robust and superior in detecting causal direction across various scenarios.
DeepMed uses DNNs to estimate causal mediation effects without sparsity constraints.
problem Estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects in mediation analysis.
method DeepMed employs deep neural networks to cross-fit infinite-dimensional nuisance functions.
result DeepMed achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and adapts to low-dimensional nuisance structures.
Study identifies and estimates treatment effect heterogeneity within principal stratification subpopulations.
problem Causal inference with intermediate outcomes and treatment effect heterogeneity.
method Proposes a novel doubly cross-fit doubly robust machine learner to efficiently learn conditional principal causal effects under principal ignorability.
result Demonstrates informative patterns of treatment effect heterogeneity within the always-survivor subpopulation in an acute lung injury trial.
Method estimates heterogeneous causal effects on networks using orthogonal learning.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects on networks due to treatment effects on both treated and neighbors, and network homophily.
method Two-stage orthogonal learning framework: first stage uses graph neural networks for nuisance components, second stage residualizes and interpretable attention-based model for causal effects.
result Improves heterogeneous effect estimation and supports interpretable analyses.
Efficiently estimates covariance for sub-Weibull vectors with sub-Gaussian rate.
problem Outliers in high-dimensional covariance estimation.
method Cross-Fitted Norm-Truncated Estimator for Sub-Weibull distributions.
result Achieves optimal sub-Gaussian rate with O ( N d 2 ) O(Nd^2) O ( N d 2 ) operations. Automates debiasing for large language model evaluations through Fisher random walk.
problem Rigorous and scalable evaluation of large language models.
method Semiparametric efficient estimator using Fisher random walk for weighted residual balancing.
result Efficient estimation of contextual preference scores for large language models.
MediEncoder learns nonlinear representations for causal mediation analysis.
problem High-dimensional noisy covariates and mediators in biomedical studies.
method Coupled encoder-decoder architecture with cross-factor network.
result Improves estimation accuracy in high-dimensional causal mediation analysis.
Bias correction improves language model training performance.
problem Stochastic update bias in preconditioned optimizers.
method Cross-fitted preconditioning and variance-corrected inversion.
result Reduces held-out pretraining loss by 0.15 nats.
Estimating causal effects for survival outcomes in the high-dimensional setting is an extremely important topic for many biomedical applications as well as areas of social sciences. We propose a new orthogonal score method for treatment effect estimation and inference that results in asymptotically valid confidence int…
Unified representation for tree ensembles indexed by nodes
problem Unifying geometric object for tree ensembles indexed by nodes
method KPP indexes feature map by nodes, weighted by path metric
result Unified non-diagonal Gram for prediction, additive attribution, robust radius, and risk bounds
Estimates causal effects using machine learning for binary treatment and mediator.
problem Estimating direct and indirect quantile treatment effects under selection-on-observables.
method Double/debiased machine learning estimators based on efficient score functions.
result Uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of effect estimators.
The article proposes a deep learning method to test and infer the Markov property in time series data.
problem Testing and inferring the Markov property in high-dimensional time series data.
method Deep conditional generative learning to estimate conditional density functions and derive a doubly robust test statistic.
result The test controls the type-I error asymptotically and has power approaching one.
Corrects mismatch in consistency of nuisance estimators for doubly robust methods.
problem Mismatch in consistency of nuisance estimators in doubly robust methods.
method Calibrated debiased machine learning (calibrated DML) with isotonic regression adjustment.
result Calibrated DML yields doubly robust asymptotic normality with slower convergence of nuisance estimators.