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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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5101520 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Epistemic POMDP

RL struggles with generalization due to implicit partial observability.

problem Generalization in RL is difficult due to implicit partial observability.
method Re-cast RL problem as solving epistemic POMDPs and propose ensemble-based techniques.
result Simple ensemble-based technique achieves significant generalization gains.

New method approximates POMDPs with PB-MDPs, providing error bounds and practical algorithms.

problem Difficulty in solving POMDPs with continuous or hybrid state and observation spaces.
method Bounding particle filtering error and adapting MDP algorithms to POMDPs.
result General theory and practical algorithms for POMDPs with no direct dependence on state and observation space sizes.

PS4POMDPs algorithm simplifies online learning for episodic POMDPs with unknown models.

problem Learning in POMDPs is harder than in MDPs; online learning is especially challenging.
method Posterior Sampling-based reinforcement learning algorithm (PS4POMDPs)
result Bayesian regret scales as √number of episodes and is polynomial in other parameters.

This research develops an efficient reinforcement learning method for undercomplete POMDPs.

problem Learning undercomplete Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is computationally hard.
method OOM-UCB algorithm for episodic finite undercomplete POMDPs.
result Achieves optimal sample complexity of ildeO(1/ε2) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\varepsilon^2) for finding an ε\varepsilon-optimal policy.

New algorithms learn POMDPs efficiently with hindsight observability.

problem Hardness of learning in POMDPs due to partial observability.
method Hindsight Observable Markov Decision Process (HOMDP) and new algorithms for tabular and function approximation settings.
result Sample-efficient learning in POMDPs with optimal dependence on latent state and observation cardinalities.

This work studies the problem of batch off-policy evaluation for Reinforcement Learning in partially observable environments. Off-policy evaluation under partial observability is inherently prone to bias, with risk of arbitrarily large errors. We define the problem of off-policy evaluation for Partially Observable Mark…

2019-09-09abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a new reinforcement learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) based on spectral decomposition methods. While spectral methods have been previously employed for consistent learning of (passive) latent variable models such as hidden Markov models, POMDPs are more challenging…

2016-02-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a policy gradient method for confounded POMDPs.

problem Estimating policy gradients for confounded POMDPs with continuous state and observation spaces.
method Developed a novel identification result to estimate policy gradients using offline data, solved conditional moment restrictions, and applied min-max learning with function approximation.
result Showed global convergence of the proposed algorithm in finding the optimal policy.

New algorithm learns POMDPs with known observation model efficiently.

problem Learning POMDPs with unknown transition model in average-reward setting.
method OAS estimation technique and OAS-UCRL algorithm balancing exploration-exploitation.
result Regret guarantee of order O(Tlog(T))\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T \log(T)}) for OAS-UCRL algorithm.

Efficient RL in large POMDPs with latent determinism and embeddings.

problem Efficient reinforcement learning in large-scale POMDPs with latent states and observations.
method Conditional Hilbert space embeddings, linear optimal QQ-function, deterministic latent transitions, gap assumption.
result Computationally and statistically efficient algorithm for exact optimal policy.

FORBES learns flexible belief states for POMDPs using normalizing flows.

problem Accurately modeling belief states in POMDPs for high-dimensional, continuous spaces.
method Integrates normalizing flows into variational inference for continuous belief state learning.
result FORBES learns flexible belief states that enable multi-modal predictions and high-quality reconstructions.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a powerful abstraction for tasks that require decision making under uncertainty, and capture a wide range of real world tasks. Today, effective planning approaches exist that generate effective strategies given black-box models of a POMDP task. Yet, an open qu…

2018-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Expectation maximization (EM) has recently been shown to be an efficient algorithm for learning finite-state controllers (FSCs) in large decentralized POMDPs (Dec-POMDPs). However, current methods use fixed-size FSCs and often converge to maxima that are far from optimal. This paper considers a variable-size FSC to rep…

2015-05-01abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper establishes strong lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs.

problem Understanding the fundamental limits of reinforcement learning in revealing partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs).
method Develops strong PAC and regret lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs using multi-step revealing POMDPs as a case study.
result Strong polynomial lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs, achieving significantly smaller gaps against current upper bounds.

We consider the problem of imitation learning from expert demonstrations in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Belief representations, which characterize the distribution over the latent states in a POMDP, have been modeled using recurrent neural networks and probabilistic latent variable models, …

2019-06-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We solve a broad class of sequential decision-making problems with partially observed states.

problem Sequential decision-making under uncertainty with partially observed states.
method Modeling as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) and separating state and modulation process.
result The approach allows for specialized approximate solution procedures.

ETC learns minimal representations for reinforcement learning in POMDPs.

problem Sample complexity challenges in reinforcement learning for POMDPs.
method ETC learns low-dimensional features and embeddings at two levels, optimizing policy.
result ETC achieves polynomial sample complexity for POMDPs with low-rank transition kernels.

Study optimizes inspection and monitoring of deteriorating structures using POMDPs.

problem Optimizing decision-making for deteriorating engineering systems with uncertain observations.
method Developed theoretical and computational foundations for Value of Information (VoI) and Value of Structural Health Monitoring (VoSHM) in POMDPs.
result POMDP policies inherently leverage VoI to guide optimal observational actions, improving long-term cost.

In Passive POMDPs actions do not affect the world state, but still incur costs. When the agent is bounded by information-processing constraints, it can only keep an approximation of the belief. We present a variational principle for the problem of maintaining the information which is most useful for minimizing the cost…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

A new reinforcement learning method for medical decisions with limited data.

problem Learning high-performing policies from partially observed data in healthcare.
method Optimization objective that combines policy and generative model quality, suitable for batch off-policy settings.
result Demonstrated improved performance on synthetic and medical decision-making problems.

Paper introduces a new framework to improve sample efficiency in POMDPs learning.

problem Challenges in off-policy evaluation for POMDPs, especially with hidden states.
method Exploits the metric structure of belief space to relax coverage assumptions.
result Unified analysis technique yields tighter error bounds and sample efficiency improvements.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) encodes prior knowledge of the world in a model and represents uncertainty in model parameters by maintaining a probability distribution over them. This paper presents Monte Carlo BRL (MC-BRL), a simple and general approach to BRL. MC-BRL samples a priori a finite set of hypotheses…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper solves POMDPs in continuous time and discrete spaces.

problem Optimal decision making in discrete state and action space systems under partial observability.
method Combining optimal filtering theory and deep learning to solve a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
result Derives a mathematical description and solution approach for continuous-time POMDPs.

Second-order methods fail to fully quantify epistemic uncertainty, leading to biased predictions.

problem Incomplete quantification of epistemic uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Analysis of existing second-order uncertainty estimation methods.
result Current methods overestimate aleatoric uncertainty and underestimate epistemic uncertainty, leading to biased predictions.

Bayesian Neural Networks show unexpected collapse of epistemic uncertainty with large models and little data.

problem Unexpected collapse of epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Experiments with varying model size and training data size.
result Epistemic uncertainty collapses in the presence of large models and sometimes little data.

This paper advances sample-efficient learning for partially observable RL by introducing B-stability and new algorithms.

problem Hard sample complexity for learning near-optimal policies in partially observable RL.
method Proposes B-stability as a unified structural condition and develops new algorithms for sample-efficient learning.
result Any B-stable PSR can be learned with polynomial samples, improving over current best complexities.

Overparametrized neural networks retain significant epistemic uncertainty even with sufficient data.

problem Epistemic uncertainty in overparametrized neural networks persists despite model identifiability.
method Analysis of non-identifiability and characterization of residual uncertainty in one-hidden-layer ReLU networks.
result Substantial parameter uncertainty remains even when the underlying function is fully identified.

DEUP directly predicts epistemic uncertainty, improving model optimization and exploration.

problem Existing measures of epistemic uncertainty do not account for model misspecification.
method Proposes a framework to estimate excess risk as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, using a secondary predictor for generalization error.
result DEUP improves sequential model optimization and exploration in interactive learning environments.

CLEAR calibrates both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for better predictive intervals.

problem Balanced uncertainty quantification for reliable predictive modeling.
method CLEAR uses two parameters, γ1 and γ2, to combine aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Clear achieves significant improvements in interval width and coverage.

Improved POMDP regret to sqrt(T) with known observation model.

problem Average-reward POMDPs with unknown transition model but known observation model.
method Optimistic algorithm using deterministic policies and novel estimation techniques.
result First approach with regret guarantee of sqrt(T) against optimal policy.