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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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18375573 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Environmental forecasting

MMformer improves forecasting of environmental time series data.

problem Accurately forecasting environmental change trends for policy-making.
method Meta-learning MTS model combining self-attention and adaptive transferable multi-head attention.
result MMformer outperforms other models in air quality and climate datasets, reducing prediction errors by 50% in MSE and 20% in MAE.

AutoPQ automates quantile forecasting for smart grids, reducing workload and environmental impact.

problem Accurate and unbiased uncertainty quantification in probabilistic forecasting for smart grid operations.
method AutoPQ uses a conditional Invertible Neural Network (cINN) to generate quantile forecasts from point forecasts, automating model selection and hyperparameter optimization.
result AutoPQ outperforms state-of-the-art methods while reducing computational effort and environmental impact.

Novel spatio-temporal LSTM model forecasts oceanic variables across sensors and scales.

problem Data sparsity and lack of connected spatial and temporal information in environmental datasets.
method SPATIAL LSTM architecture that learns across spatial and temporal scales.
result Framework accurately forecasts oceanic variables with comparable performance to state-of-the-art models.

Study uses ML and statistical models to analyze climate impacts of industrial growth.

problem Understanding and predicting environmental impacts of industrial activities.
method Comparative analysis of ML and statistical models on time series data.
result ML models outperform statistical models in predicting environmental impacts.

Less frequent retraining improves forecast accuracy in retail demand forecasting.

problem Balancing forecast accuracy and computational efficiency in global models.
method Analysis of ten machine learning and deep learning models across two large retail datasets with various retraining scenarios.
result Less frequent retraining strategies maintain forecast accuracy while reducing computational costs.

CauSTream forecasts streamflow by integrating causal graphs for better interpretability.

problem Streamflow forecasting lacks interpretability and generalization due to fixed causal models.
method CauSTream learns causal graphs for meteorological forcings and routing dependencies.
result CauSTream outperforms existing methods, especially at longer forecast windows.

Combining forecasts of 16 ED causes improves accuracy and stability.

problem Forecasting accuracy and stability for ED admissions is poor due to model uncertainty and limited data.
method High-dimensional forecast combinations of 16 cause-specific ED forecasts using extensive covariates.
result Forecast combinations yield forecast accuracies of 3.81%-23.54% across causes, outperforming individual models in 50% of scenarios.

This paper reviews radar-based nowcasting techniques for short-term weather predictions.

problem Short-term weather predictions for adverse events like heavy rain and flooding.
method Analysis of existing radar-based nowcasting techniques and machine learning approaches.
result New partnerships between environmental science and machine learning can improve nowcasting.

CSDI improves time series imputation by 40-65% over existing methods.

problem Imputing missing values in time series data.
method Conditional Score-based Diffusion models conditioned on observed data.
result CSDI improves by 40-65% over existing probabilistic imputation methods on popular metrics.

FNOs improve spatio-temporal forecasting without needing PDE details.

problem Complex spatio-temporal dynamics in physical and biological phenomena.
method Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) for dynamic spatio-temporal modeling.
result FNO forecasts are accurate and capture complex real-world dependencies.

TSCoNet forecasts correlated geophysical fields with uncertainty estimates.

problem Accurate and reliable forecasts of correlated geophysical fields across many locations.
method Two-stage CNN-LSTM coupled with Gaussian copula.
result Calibrated prediction intervals without sacrificing point accuracy.

This study introduces a framework for the forecasting, reconstruction and feature engineering of multivariate processes along with its renewable energy applications. We integrate derivative-free optimization with an ensemble of sequence-to-sequence networks and design a new resampling technique called additive resampli…

2019-09-12abs ↗pdf ↗

This study forecasts climate data in Chile using EOFs and machine learning models.

problem Predicting climatic variability in Chile for resource management and planning.
method Combines EOF decomposition, wavelet analysis, and neural networks for spatiotemporal forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in forecasting climate data through a hybrid ML approach.

EcoCast predicts biodiversity risks using satellite data and citizen science records.

problem Unprecedented shifts in species distributions due to climate change and habitat loss.
method Spatio-temporal model using sequence-based transformers and continual learning.
result Promising improvements in forecasting bird species distributions compared to Random Forest.

Bayesian framework selects features and lags for time series forecasting.

problem Variable selection and lagged error term identification in time series models.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with spike-and-slab priors, two-stage MCMC algorithm.
result Posterior selection consistency under mild conditions, improved predictive performance.

LightGBM outperforms other models in predicting pH values in Georgia, USA.

problem Accurate water quality prediction for effective resource management and pollution mitigation.
method Five distinct predictive models (linear regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, MLP neural network) were assessed for pH value forecasting in Georgia, USA.
result LightGBM achieved the highest average precision in predicting pH values.

Crop yield prediction is extremely challenging due to its dependence on multiple factors such as crop genotype, environmental factors, management practices, and their interactions. This paper presents a deep learning framework using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) for crop yield …

2019-11-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a method for estimating tropical cyclone intensity distribution using deep learning.

problem Lack of full accounting of prediction variability in single-point forecasts.
method Smooth model over target and covariates, logistic transformation for conditional density, case-control sampling approximation.
result Method provides insights into predicted response behavior, improving decision-making and policy.

Quantitative model predicts Sri Lankan stock market using NLP, clustering, and time-series forecasting.

problem Predicting economic regimes and market signals in Sri Lankan stock indices.
method Integrates NLP, clustering, and time-series forecasting; uses FinBERT for sentiment analysis, UMAP/HDBSCAN for clustering, and GRU/LSTM for forecasting.
result GRU model achieves 80.1% R-squared for daily closing price forecasts.

Deep learning framework predicts streamflow and flood probabilities in Australian catchments.

problem Large-scale flooding prediction challenges due to model calibration and missing data.
method Ensemble quantile-based deep learning framework using quantile regression and CAMELS dataset.
result Notable efficacy and uncertainties in streamflow forecasts with varied catchment properties.

Study finds environmental liability insurance reduces industrial carbon emissions.

problem Reduction of industrial carbon emissions.
method Two-way fixed effect model using provincial (city) level panel data from 2010 to 2020.
result Environmental liability insurance reduces industrial carbon emissions at both direct and indirect levels, with varying effects.

Bayesian model tackles spatial count data issues with flexible non-parametric techniques.

problem Challenges in traditional parametric models for spatial count data with unbalanced distributions and complex dependencies.
method Bayesian semi-parametric spatial dispersed count model combining non-parametric techniques and adapted count models.
result Demonstrates superior performance in managing dispersion and capturing intricate spatial patterns.

Study predicts coastal water quality using machine learning, identifying salinity as key factor.

problem Predicting and managing coastal water quality for public health and tourism.
method Machine learning models (Catboost, Xgboost, Random Forests, Support Vector Regression, Artificial Neural Networks) trained on environmental data.
result Catboost algorithm performed best, with R² values of 0.71 and 0.68 for E. Coli and enterococci predictions.

New method improves traffic forecasting models by adapting to spatial shifts.

problem Improving traffic forecasting models' ability to handle spatial shifts over years.
method Proposes a novel Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for spatiotemporal models.
result Significant improvement in performance for handling spatial distribution shifts.

Higher environmental performance linked to more tax avoidance, especially for financially constrained firms.

problem Tax avoidance practices in relation to environmental performance.
method Entropy balancing, propensity score matching, instrumental variable method, Heckman test.
result Higher environmental performance correlates with increased tax avoidance, particularly for financially constrained firms.

The paper introduces a new financial market for environmental indices to attract investors.

problem Inherent risks and sustainability concerns in environmental investments.
method Quantitative measures, econometric analysis, dynamic asset pricing tools, and financial options.
result Monetization and construction of country-specific environmental indices as dollar-denominated assets.

Low-cost water-level tracking using LTE power metrics and wavelet analysis.

problem Real-time water-level monitoring across many locations with fixed instruments.
method Extracts per-antenna RSRP, RSSI, and RSRQ, applies CWT to RSRP, and uses a neural network to track water-level changes.
result Achieves root-mean-square and mean-absolute errors of 0.8 cm and 0.5 cm, respectively, under line-of-sight conditions.

AI methods are energy-intensive, but efficiency alone isn't enough for sustainability.

problem AI methods are energy-intensive and contribute to climate change.
method Critically examines the limitations of efficiency in improving environmental sustainability of AI.
result Efficiency alone is insufficient to address the environmental impacts of AI.

Study assesses environmental management accounting practices in Bangladesh.

problem Low environmental management accounting practices in Bangladeshi manufacturing companies.
method Developed a compliance checklist and evaluated practices using binary scoring.
result Environmental management accounting practices are poor in Bangladeshi manufacturing companies.

Hedonic models predict 84-92% of U.S. real estate prices, highlighting environmental factors' impact.

problem Predicting real estate prices using hedonic models with environmental factors.
method P-spline generalized additive models for real estate prices, contrasting with linear and polynomial models.
result GAM models explain 84-92% of U.S. real estate price variance, with environmental factors contributing minimally.

Study identifies contagion in aggregated defaults despite environmental changes.

problem Identify contagion in aggregated default counts with fluctuating probabilities.
method Compare three contagion mechanisms (Davis-Lo, Torri, Vasicek) under i.i.d. and hierarchical specifications.
result Threshold contagion is largely absorbed into environmental heterogeneity, while cumulative contagion leaves a persistent signature.

RST improves environmental time series classification accuracy using randomized B-spline trees.

problem Improving accuracy in classifying complex environmental time series.
method Randomized Spline Trees (RST) integrates randomized functional representations into ensemble learning.
result RST variants outperform standard Random Forests and Gradient Boosting on most environmental time series datasets.

Bayesian optimization adapted for experiments with changing environmental conditions.

problem Optimizing experiments influenced by uncontrollable environmental factors.
method Extends Bayesian optimization to handle both controllable and uncontrollable parameters, fitting a global surrogate model and optimizing only controllable parameters conditionally on measurements of uncontrollable variables.
result The proposed ENVBO algorithm finds solutions for the full domain of the environmental variable more efficiently and cost-effectively than traditional methods.

Novel Orlicz regrets consistently bound environmental variable statistics.

problem Consistent evaluation of stochastic environmental variables like water quality indices.
method Proposed novel Orlicz regrets for upper and lower bounds.
result Explicit linkage between Orlicz regrets and divergence risk measures.