Hybrid deep learning model predicts urban floods with high accuracy.
problem Urban flood prediction and situation awareness using channel network sensors data.
method FastGRNN-FCN hybrid deep learning model trained on Harris County, Texas flood data.
result Test accuracy and F-measure reach 97.8% and 0.792, respectively.
Framework improves ML flood mapping generalization.
problem Improving machine learning models' ability to generalize to new conditions.
method Dimensionless, multi-scale features constrained by the Buckingham Π theorem.
result Model outperformed dimensional features, improving AUC in unmapped areas.
Deep learning framework predicts streamflow and flood probabilities in Australian catchments.
problem Large-scale flooding prediction challenges due to model calibration and missing data.
method Ensemble quantile-based deep learning framework using quantile regression and CAMELS dataset.
result Notable efficacy and uncertainties in streamflow forecasts with varied catchment properties.
Flood forecasts are crucial for effective individual and governmental protective action. The vast majority of flood-related casualties occur in developing countries, where providing spatially accurate forecasts is a challenge due to scarcity of data and lack of funding. This paper describes an operational system provid…
This paper analyzes extreme flooding risks and proposes insurance and bond solutions.
problem Severe rise in magnitude and frequency of floods causing catastrophic losses.
method Extremes analysis using Peaks-Over-Threshold method and Point Process model; Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional VaR (CVaR) estimation; Flood zoning insurance and catastrophic bond design.
result Developed flood risk vulnerability and threat analysis considering geography and economic factors; Proposed flood zoning insurance and catastrophic bond design.
Flooding is a destructive and dangerous hazard and climate change appears to be increasing the frequency of catastrophic flooding events around the world. Physics-based flood models are costly to calibrate and are rarely generalizable across different river basins, as model outputs are sensitive to site-specific parame…
CNN model predicts fluvial floods quickly and accurately.
problem Real-time flood prediction is computationally demanding.
method Deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) trained on 2D hydraulic model outputs.
result CNN model outperforms SVR in predicting flood inundation.
Physically-based overland flow models are computationally demanding, hindering their use for real-time applications. Therefore, the development of fast (and reasonably accurate) overland flow models is needed if they are to be used to support flood mitigation decision making. In this study, we investigate the potential…
Study finds more flood risk strategies can improve outcomes in NYC.
problem Managing future flood risks with complex models.
method Used an intermediate complexity model to analyze flood risk strategies.
result More combinations of risk mitigation strategies expand the solution set and improve outcomes.
Homeowners around the world elevate houses to manage flood risks. Deciding how high to elevate a house poses a nontrivial decision problem. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends elevating existing houses to the Base Flood Elevation (the elevation of the 100-yr flood) plus a freeboard. This reco…
A new model predicts spatially varying inland flooding from time-varying inputs.
problem Ignoring time series and spatial correlations in flood models leads to inaccurate predictions.
method Introduced a multioutput Gaussian process model with separable kernels for functional inputs and spatial locations.
result The model provides accurate predictions of spatially varying inland flooding with minimal computational time.
Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduction the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex …
Study improves flood loss risk models using historical data and rainfall data.
problem Predicting financial losses from flooding events.
method Used neural networks, decision trees, and kernel-based regressors on NFIP dataset, incorporating rainfall data.
result Extreme Gradient Boosting provided the best results, and bias correction improved model performance.
Predicting flood for any location at times of extreme storms is a longstanding problem that has utmost importance in emergency management. Conventional methods that aim to predict water levels in streams use advanced hydrological models still lack of giving accurate forecasts everywhere. This study aims to explore arti…
Overparameterized deep networks have the capacity to memorize training data with zero \emph{training error}. Even after memorization, the \emph{training loss} continues to approach zero, making the model overconfident and the test performance degraded. Since existing regularizers do not directly aim to avoid zero train…
SoftAD improves classification accuracy with less fine-tuning and fewer computational costs.
problem Improving classification accuracy with less fine-tuning and fewer computational costs.
method SoftAD is a softened, pointwise mechanism that downweights borderline points and limits the effects of outliers.
result SoftAD achieves classification accuracy competitive with flooding and SAM, with a smaller loss generalization gap and model norm.
New protocol reduces communication costs for heterogeneous bandits over complex networks.
problem Minimizing group regret in a multi-agent, heterogeneous bandit setting over complex networks.
method Flooding with Absorption (FwA) protocol for heterogeneous bandits over complex networks.
result FwA protocol significantly reduces communication costs compared to flooding while maintaining similar regret performance.
Satellite imaging is a critical technology for monitoring and responding to natural disasters such as flooding. Despite the capabilities of modern satellites, there is still much to be desired from the perspective of first response organisations like UNICEF. Two main challenges are rapid access to data, and the ability…
Forecast dam inflow using sea surface feature weights.
problem Accurate dam inflow forecasting for flood mitigation.
method Extracted sea surface features, applied L2-norm ensemble weighting, used PCA and t-SNE for dimensionality reduction, and calibrated regression models.
result The proposed method improves predictor stability and accuracy in dam inflow forecasting.
Machine learning predicts dam-break flood wave behavior accurately.
problem Predicting long-term wave behavior in dam-break floods.
method Solved Saint-Venant equations using Lax-Wendroff scheme, trained RC-ESN with flow depth data.
result RC-ESN model predicts 286 time-steps ahead with RMSE < 0.01, outperforming LSTM.
Neural network model forecasts extreme flood risk.
problem Accurately estimating high quantiles of extreme events.
method EQRN model combining neural networks and extreme value theory.
result Forecasting flood risk with improved adaptability.
Recently developed machine learning techniques, in association with the Internet of Things (IoT) allow for the implementation of a method of increasing oil production from heavy-oil wells. Steam flood injection, a widely used enhanced oil recovery technique, uses thermal and gravitational potential to mobilize and dilu…
Effective riverine flood forecasting at scale is hindered by a multitude of factors, most notably the need to rely on human calibration in current methodology, the limited amount of data for a specific location, and the computational difficulty of building continent/global level models that are sufficiently accurate. M…
Flood extent mapping plays a crucial role in disaster management and national water forecasting. Unfortunately, traditional classification methods are often hampered by the existence of noise, obstacles and heterogeneity in spectral features as well as implicit anisotropic spatial dependency across class labels. In thi…
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
problem High-impact events require very high confidence prediction intervals, but classical methods provide uninformative intervals.
method Bridge extreme value statistics and conformal prediction to provide reliable and informative prediction intervals.
result Provides reliable and informative prediction intervals with high-confidence coverage.
Data scientists guide to streamflow prediction and flood forecasting.
problem Forecasting floods and predicting streamflow volume.
method Explains hydrologic concepts and machine learning applications.
result Helps data scientists understand streamflow prediction.
The study models insurance dependence using Bernstein copulas.
problem Modeling dependence structures in nonlife insurance data.
method Review and suggest fitting Bernstein copulas to empirical data.
result Monte Carlo simulation and PML estimation for aggregate losses.
Study optimizes climate adaptation strategies for NYC.
problem Catastrophic damages from extreme weather in NYC.
method Real options analysis and extreme value theory.
result Optimal adaptation pathways identified for NYC.
Study optimal risk sharing in decentralized peer-to-peer markets with robust risk measures.
problem Optimizing risk sharing in decentralized markets with non-convex risk measures.
method Characterization of Pareto-optimal allocations using robust distortion risk measures and probabilistic risk aversion.
result Shape of allocations depends on agents' tail risk assessments.
This paper compares unstructured and structured EM-based semi-supervised learning methods.
problem Semi-supervised learning with EM algorithm for structured prediction.
method Comparative study between unstructured and structured EM-based semi-supervised learning methods.
result Structured EM is more robust to class confusion in flood mapping datasets.
Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past data. In this work we present a large-scale LSTM-based modeling approach that -- …
Paper proposes a novel approach to improve spatiotemporal precipitation forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of spatiotemporal precipitation forecasts for flood damage mitigation.
method Introduces a rain-code fusion approach using ConvLSTM and multi-frame fusion for spatiotemporal precipitation code-to-code forecasting.
result Demonstrates enhanced accuracy in precipitation forecasts beyond 3 timesteps using the rain-code fusion.
Study tackles criterion collapse in learning criteria, showing conditions for loss minimization.
problem Criterion collapse in optimization, focusing on error probability minimizers.
method Analyzes various learning criteria, including DRO, OCE risks, and non-monotonic criteria.
result Non-monotonic criteria can avoid collapse, while monotonic ones cannot.
We consider a fundamental integer programming (IP) model for cost-benefit analysis flood protection through dike building in the Netherlands, due to Verweij and Zwaneveld. Experimental analysis with data for the Ijsselmeer lead to integral optimal solution of the linear programming relaxation of the IP model. This natu…
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
problem Systemic physical climate risk in supply chains.
method Agent-based model integrating geospatial hazards and firm adaptation.
result Firms' adaptive strategies reduce disruption by 48%.
HydroNets use river structure to improve hydrologic predictions.
problem Scalable and accurate hydrologic models are needed for climate change impacts.
method HydroNets are deep neural networks that incorporate river network structure.
result HydroNets improve predictions with fewer data, especially at longer horizons.
The current flood of information in all areas of machine learning research, from computer vision to reinforcement learning, has made it difficult to make aggregate scientific inferences. It can be challenging to distill a myriad of similar papers into a set of useful principles, to determine which new methodologies to …
Learning hydrologic models for accurate riverine flood prediction at scale is a challenge of great importance. One of the key difficulties is the need to rely on in-situ river discharge measurements, which can be quite scarce and unreliable, particularly in regions where floods cause the most damage every year. Accordi…
Novel Orlicz regrets consistently bound environmental variable statistics.
problem Consistent evaluation of stochastic environmental variables like water quality indices.
method Proposed novel Orlicz regrets for upper and lower bounds.
result Explicit linkage between Orlicz regrets and divergence risk measures.
Persistent homology provides a new, efficient molecular descriptor for protein dynamics.
problem Designing effective molecular descriptors for high-dimensional MD trajectories.
method Introduced masked Flood complex, a protein-tailored modification of simplicial complexes, for persistent homology.
result Persistent homology-based descriptors are competitive across protein dynamics tasks, including frame-level observable regression and MSM estimation.
This paper uses VAE to generate extreme events from multivariate data.
problem Generating accurate extremes from observational data for risk assessment.
method Variational Autoencoder (VAE) approach for multivariate heavy-tailed distributions.
result Improves learning of dependency structure between extremes.
Modeling daily river flow distribution with seasonal and long-term trends.
problem Capturing both seasonal and gradual long-term changes in environmental variables.
method Distributional regression using GAMLSS framework to estimate daily distribution of river flows.
result Model successfully captures seasonal variation and long-term trends in river flow data.
Model shows how heterogeneity in strategies and risk tolerance affects financial market stability.
problem Understanding how heterogeneity impacts financial market dynamics.
method Agent-based model incorporating heterogeneous investment strategies and risk tolerance.
result Heterogeneity in strategies and risk tolerance suppresses price fluctuations.
Accurate and efficient models for rainfall runoff (RR) simulations are crucial for flood risk management. Most rainfall models in use today are process-driven; i.e. they solve either simplified empirical formulas or some variation of the St. Venant (shallow water) equations. With the development of machine-learning tec…
Low-cost water-level tracking using LTE power metrics and wavelet analysis.
problem Real-time water-level monitoring across many locations with fixed instruments.
method Extracts per-antenna RSRP, RSSI, and RSRQ, applies CWT to RSRP, and uses a neural network to track water-level changes.
result Achieves root-mean-square and mean-absolute errors of 0.8 cm and 0.5 cm, respectively, under line-of-sight conditions.
CausalRivers benchmarks causal discovery methods on real-world river discharge data.
problem Lack of in-the-wild evaluation of causal discovery methods on complex, real-world data.
method Introduces CausalRivers, a large-scale dataset of river discharge data for benchmarking.
result Demonstrates the utility of CausalRivers in evaluating causal discovery methods.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
Soil moisture is an important variable that determines floods, vegetation health, agriculture productivity, and land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere, etc. Accurately modeling soil moisture has important implications in both weather and climate models. The recently available satellite-based observations give us a un…