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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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22446587 · May 202619922001200920182026
48 results for Delayed Outcomes

Predicting delayed outcomes in recommender systems using proxies.

problem Predicting delayed outcomes in recommender systems.
method Formalized as adversarial, delayed online learning problem; proposed Factored Forecaster (FF) and Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) neural network architectures.
result Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) outperforms direct forecaster and Factored Forecaster (FF) in predicting human behavior.

Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.

problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.

New algorithm optimizes long-term user satisfaction in recommendation systems.

problem Optimizing long-term user satisfaction in recommendation systems with delayed rewards.
method Developed a predictive model of delayed rewards and a bandit algorithm that balances exploration and exploitation.
result Our approach results in substantially better performance compared to short-term or delayed optimization.

We propose a quantum machine learning algorithm for efficiently solving a class of problems encoded in quantum controlled unitary operations. The central physical mechanism of the protocol is the iteration of a quantum time-delayed equation that introduces feedback in the dynamics and eliminates the necessity of interm…

2016-12-16abs ↗pdf ↗

This study aims to predict vessel stay and delay times at ports to optimize logistics.

problem Uncertainties in maritime logistics, including weather, cargo diversity, and port dynamics, lead to increased costs and inefficiencies.
method Developed predictive analytics to address shortcomings in previous works, using feature analysis and SHAP explanations.
result Predictive analytics can assist in efficient planning and scheduling of port operations, reducing costs and improving logistics.

In treatment allocation problems the individuals to be treated often arrive sequentially. We study a problem in which the policy maker is not only interested in the expected cumulative welfare but is also concerned about the uncertainty/risk of the treatment outcomes. At the outset, the total number of treatment assign…

2017-05-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm optimizes for long-term user satisfaction in delayed reward settings.

problem Optimizing for long-term user satisfaction in delayed reward settings.
method Developed a predictive model of delayed rewards and a bandit algorithm that combines rewards and surrogate outcomes.
result Our algorithm significantly outperforms methods that optimize for short-term proxies or rely solely on delayed rewards.

Study predicts hearing recovery in MD patients using TEOAE signals.

problem Predicting hearing recovery in MD patients during acute episodes.
method Applied machine learning to TEOAE signals from MD patients, using SVM for classification.
result Baseline TEOAE parameters can predict hearing recovery in MD patients.

Paper proposes RRD to learn proxy rewards for sparse delayed rewards in episodic reinforcement learning.

problem Learning from sparse and delayed rewards in reinforcement learning.
method Randomized Return Decomposition (RRD) algorithm to redistribute rewards.
result Substantial improvement over baseline algorithms in experiments.

The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.

problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with persistent unmeasured confounders.
method Exploiting the sequential structure of short-term outcomes, the paper develops three novel identification strategies and corresponding estimators.
result The proposed methods outperform existing approaches in handling persistent confounders.

The paper targets optimal interventions for long-term outcomes using imputed data and policy learning.

problem Maximizing long-term outcomes observed only in the future.
method Imputing missing long-term outcomes and using a doubly-robust approach for policy evaluation and optimization.
result The approach outperforms simple short-term proxies and achieves significant revenue impact over three years.

New algorithm optimizes multi-objective outcomes in uncertain environments.

problem Optimizing global concave rewards in online Markov decision processes with multiple actions.
method No-regret algorithm based on online convex optimization and UCRL2, with a gradient threshold procedure.
result Non-stationary policy diversifies outcomes to optimize the global concave reward.

The paper introduces a framework for prescriptive process monitoring that generates alarms to prevent or mitigate undesired outcomes.

problem Existing predictive process monitoring techniques do not prescribe when and how to intervene to decrease undesired outcomes.
method The paper proposes a framework that extends predictive monitoring with the ability to generate alarms, incorporating a cost model to assess the trade-off between generating alarms and the cost of undesired outcomes.
result The net cost of undesired outcomes can be minimized by optimizing the generation of alarms based on the progress of the process instance and introducing delays for triggering alarms.

Study finds non-adherence to schizophrenia meds leads to earlier adverse events.

problem Impact of medication non-adherence on adverse outcomes in schizophrenia patients.
method Survival analysis, causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching), different amounts of longitudinal information.
result Non-adherence to schizophrenia meds advances adverse events by 1 to 4 months.

Paper tackles action delays in reinforcement learning, proposing a delay-aware framework.

problem Action delays degrade reinforcement learning performance in real-world systems.
method Formal definition of delay-aware MDP, transformation into standard MDP with augmented states, delay-aware model-based reinforcement learning framework.
result Proposed framework is more efficient in training and transferable between systems with various delay durations.

CausalLongPFN predicts counterfactual outcomes from time-series data.

problem Predicting future outcomes under varying treatments in time-series data with confounding and heterogeneity.
method Prior-fitted network pretrained on synthetic episodes of temporal structural causal models.
result CausalLongPFN outperforms domain-trained models on factual and counterfactual prediction tasks.

We show that time-dependent fluctuations {Δx}\{Δx\} in foreign exchange rates are accurately described by a random walk in a complex plane that is demarcated into the gain (+) and loss (-) sectors. {Δx}\{Δx\} is the outcome of NN random steps from the origin and Δx|Δx| is the square of the Euclidean distance of the final …

2003-08-15abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithms ensure fair selection in combinatorial semi-bandit with unrestricted delays.

problem Fair selection in stochastic combinatorial semi-bandit with delayed feedback.
method Introduced merit-based fairness constraints and new bandit algorithms for reward and fairness.
result Achieved sublinear expected reward and fairness regrets with dependence on delay distribution quantiles.

New algorithm handles delayed feedback robustly, reducing regret without knowing delay bounds.

problem Bandits with variably delayed feedback, especially excessive delays.
method Implicit exploration scheme, adaptive skipping, drifted regret control.
result Can tolerate arbitrary excessive delays up to order T, reducing regret.

Gradient descent with delayed updates converges faster with noise, even when delays are significant.

problem Analyzing convergence of gradient descent with delayed gradients and stochastic noise.
method Novel technique using generating functions for convergence analysis.
result Convergence bounds show that stochastic noise mitigates the negative effects of delays, improving performance.

New algorithm for multiarmed bandits with variable, unbounded delays achieves similar regret bounds.

problem Variable, unbounded delays in multiarmed bandits.
method Introduces a new algorithm that skips rounds with excessively large delays and uses a doubling scheme.
result Achieves the same regret bound as Exp3 with variable, unbounded delays.

Paper tackles delays in multi-agent reinforcement learning, improving performance.

problem Challenges in reinforcement learning due to delays in real-world systems.
method Proposes a novel framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning with delays, using Delay-Aware Markov Games and centralized-decentralized training.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in performance with delay-aware multi-agent reinforcement learning.

Study on synchronization in financial markets with time delays.

problem Understanding market dynamics and synchronization in financial systems with time delays.
method Examined a system of coupled non-linear delay-differential equations, linearized for small delays, and analyzed collective dynamics using bifurcation diagrams and numerical solutions.
result Demonstrated that limit cycles can be maintained in coupled N-asset models with appropriate parameterization, leading to market synchronization.

BayTiDe discovers time-delayed differential equations from noisy data.

problem Discovering time-delayed differential equations from data with large delays and noise.
method Bayesian inference with a sparsity-promoting prior.
result BayTiDe accurately identifies time-delayed differential equations with accuracy proportional to data resolution.

New algorithm tackles stochastic bandits with varying arm-dependent delays.

problem Applying existing algorithms to stochastic delayed bandit settings is restricted by strong assumptions on delay distributions.
method Proposes a simple UCB-based algorithm called PatientBandits that weakens assumptions on delay distributions.
result Provides bounds on regret and performance lower bounds for the PatientBandits algorithm.

Delayed-RNN approximates stacked and bidirectional RNNs.

problem Improving RNN expressiveness and representational capacity.
method Weight-constrained delayed-RNN, equivalent to stacked-RNNs, with partial acausality.
result Delayed-RNN can approximate stacked and bidirectional RNNs, outperforming them in some tasks.

New algorithm tackles non-stationary delayed feedback in recommender systems.

problem Challenges in learning from delayed feedback in non-stationary environments.
method Developed a UCRL-based algorithm for non-stationary, delayed bandits with intermediate observations.
result Sublinear regret guarantees for the proposed algorithm in non-stationary delayed environments.

PCTS optimizes noisy, delayed, multi-fidelity feedbacks in black-box optimization.

problem Optimizing unknown functions with noisy, delayed, and multi-fidelity feedbacks.
method ProCrastinated Tree Search (PCTS) with DUCB1 and DUCBV algorithms.
result PCTS achieves better regret bounds for delayed, noisy, and multi-fidelity feedbacks.

Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users. There is generally a time de…

2018-02-01abs ↗pdf ↗

We study a variant of the stochastic KK-armed bandit problem, which we call "bandits with delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback". In this problem, when the player pulls an arm, a reward is generated, however it is not immediately observed. Instead, at the end of each round the player observes only the sum of a number…

2017-09-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Study online learning with delays and capacity constraints, achieving optimal regret bounds.

problem Online learning with delays and capacity constraints.
method Novel scheduling and preemptive techniques, matching upper and lower bounds.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds across all capacity levels.

RISE learns decisions with sensitive variables, improving worst-case outcomes.

problem Uncertainty and bias in decisions due to delayed sensitive variable data.
method Incorporates sensitive variables offline but not at deployment, using quantile or infimum optimization.
result Improves worst-case outcomes for individuals affected by unavailable sensitive variables.

Online learning with delayed feedback has received increasing attention recently due to its several applications in distributed, web-based learning problems. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the topic, and analyze the effect of delay on the regret of online learning algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, it t…

2013-06-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Federated learning technique improves convergence speed with communication delays.

problem Communication delays between edge nodes and aggregator in federated learning.
method Developed FedDelAvg, a technique that generalizes federated averaging to incorporate a weighting between current local model and delayed global model.
result FedDelAvg achieves a significant improvement in convergence speed, especially when optimizing the weighting scheme to account for delays.