One possible way of risk management for an insurance company is to develop an early and appropriate alarm system before the possible ruin. The ruin is defined through the status of the aggregate risk process, which in turn is determined by premium accumulation as well as claim settlement outgo for the insurance company…
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48 results for “alarms”
Optimizes latency and false alarm probability in change detection problems.
problem Balancing latency and false alarms in non-stationary environments.
method Develops order-optimal change detectors under specified latency and false alarm levels.
result Derives a universal lower bound on latency and develops order-optimal detectors.
Nowadays, advanced intrusion detection systems (IDSs) rely on a combination of anomaly detection and signature-based methods. An IDS gathers observations, analyzes behavioral patterns, and reports suspicious events for further investigation. A notorious issue anomaly detection systems (ADSs) and IDSs face is the possib…
The paper introduces a framework for prescriptive process monitoring that generates alarms to prevent or mitigate undesired outcomes.
problem Existing predictive process monitoring techniques do not prescribe when and how to intervene to decrease undesired outcomes.
method The paper proposes a framework that extends predictive monitoring with the ability to generate alarms, incorporating a cost model to assess the trade-off between generating alarms and the cost of undesired outcomes.
result The net cost of undesired outcomes can be minimized by optimizing the generation of alarms based on the progress of the process instance and introducing delays for triggering alarms.
New models extrapolate false alarms in ASV without new data.
problem Reliable extrapolation of false alarm rates in ASV without new speaker data.
method Generative models in ASV score space for arbitrary systems.
result Models accurately extrapolate false alarm rates for large speaker populations.
The argument that the alarming level of Gini coefficient is 0.4 is very popular, especially in the media industry, all around the world for a long time. Although the 0.4 standard is widely accepted, the derivation of the value lacks rigid theoretical foundations. In fact, to the best of our knowledge, it is not based o…
No-knowledge alarms detect misaligned LLM judges without trusting them.
problem Monitoring LLM judges for consistency when ground truth is unknown.
method Formal logic and Linear Programming to detect disagreements.
result No false positives in detecting misaligned judges.
Online anomaly detection in surveillance videos with false alarm rate bounds.
problem Lack of theoretical performance analysis and online decision making in anomaly detection.
method Proposes an online anomaly detection method with asymptotic bounds on false alarm rate.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on publicly available data sets, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithms.
Detects data drift in deep learning models using neural embeddings.
problem Detecting changes in data distribution in deep learning models.
method Formulates drift detection in a sequential decision framework and introduces a loss function to balance false alarms and quick detection.
result Demonstrates improved ability to balance false alarms and quick detection in change detection.
The high rate of false alarms in intensive care units (ICUs) is one of the top challenges of using medical technology in hospitals. These false alarms are often caused by patients' movements, detachment of monitoring sensors, or different sources of noise and interference that impact the collected signals from differen…
Improved outbreak detection using machine learning fusion of statistical algorithms.
problem Balancing detection of outbreaks with false alarms.
method Train a fusion classifier using p-values and additional features.
result Fusion classifier using p-values and additional features improves outbreak detection.
Patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) require constant and close supervision. To assist clinical staff in this task, hospitals use monitoring systems that trigger audiovisual alarms if their algorithms indicate that a patient's condition may be worsening. However, current monitoring systems are extremely sensitive …
Bedside monitors in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) frequently sound incorrectly, slowing response times and desensitising nurses to alarms (Chambrin, 2001), causing true alarms to be missed (Hug et al., 2011). We compare sliding window predictors with recurrent predictors to classify patient state-of-health from ICU multi…
Interpretation of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals can be complicated by obfuscating artifacts. Artifact detection plays an important role in the observation and analysis of EEG signals. Spatial information contained in the placement of the electrodes can be exploited to accurately detect artifacts. However, when few…
Adaptive monitoring for AI systems detects and diagnoses shifts in data distribution.
problem Continuous monitoring of AI systems to detect and address unsafe behavior.
method Weighted-conformal martingales (WCTMs) for online monitoring of AI systems.
result Improved performance over state-of-the-art baselines on real-world datasets.
An important application of intelligent vehicles is advance detection of dangerous events such as collisions. This problem is framed as a problem of optimal alarm choice given predictive models for vehicle location and motion. Techniques for real-time collision detection are surveyed and grouped into three classes: ran…
Simple online monitor detects unsafe LLM outputs.
problem LLMs generate unsafe outputs despite training.
method Thresholding external verifier signal to decide alarms.
result Simple design competitive with advanced methods.
Time Reversal and Last Passage Time of Diffusions with Applications to Credit Risk Managementq-fin.MF
We study time reversal, last passage time, and -transform of linear diffusions. For general diffusions with killing, we obtain the probability density of the last passage time to an arbitrary level and analyze the distribution of the time left until killing after the last passage time. With these tools, we develop a…
KQT-EWMA monitors multivariate data streams online with flexible and practical change detection.
problem Online monitoring of multivariate data streams for detecting changes.
method Combines Kernel-QuantTree histogram and EWMA statistic for non-parametric monitoring.
result Controls Average Run Length (ARL0) while achieving comparable detection delays.
Extends FC-RAG to anytime-valid sequential coverage for language model swarms.
problem Maintain distribution-free coverage for a swarm of weak language models over time.
method Introduces Anytime-FC-RAG, a sequential extension with a summable calibration-deviation budget.
result Achieves time-uniform alarm validity and safety under predictable adaptive control.
Change Point Detection in Time Series Data using Autoencoders with a Time-Invariant Representationcs.LG
Autoencoder detects subtle changes in time series data.
problem Detect abrupt changes in time series data with high accuracy.
method Autoencoder with time-invariant representation and postprocessing.
result Outperforms baseline methods on various data sets.
We propose a novel non-parametric adaptive anomaly detection algorithm for high dimensional data based on rank-SVM. Data points are first ranked based on scores derived from nearest neighbor graphs on n-point nominal data. We then train a rank-SVM using this ranked data. A test-point is declared as an anomaly at alpha-…
Score-Based Change-Point Detection and Region Localization for Spatio-Temporal Point Processesstat.ME
New method detects and locates changes in spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Detecting and localizing changes in spatio-temporal data.
method Score-based, likelihood-free approach estimating change time and region.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees on detection and localization accuracy.
Detects harmful shifts without labels for model performance.
problem Detecting distribution shifts without access to labels.
method Uses a proxy derived from predictions of an error estimator.
result High power and false alarm control under various shifts.
Balancing graph summarization and change detection in streaming data.
problem Balancing compression rate in graph summarization and accuracy in change detection.
method Introducing a probabilistic hierarchical latent variable model and optimizing parameters based on the minimum description length principle to balance the trade-off.
result Guaranteed suppression of Type I error probability (false alarms) in change detection.
Financial markets are well known for their dramatic dynamics and consequences that affect much of the world's population. Consequently, much research has aimed at understanding, identifying and forecasting crashes and rebounds in financial markets. The Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model provides an operational framew…
PITMonitor monitors model calibration over time with formal error guarantees.
problem Fixed-sample tests applied to models over time can lead to false alarms.
method PITMonitor uses mixture e-processes to detect distributional shifts in probability integral transforms.
result PITMonitor achieves competitive detection rates on river's FriedmanDrift benchmark.
Deep Q-Learning for Self-Organizing Networks Fault Management and Radio Performance Improvementcs.NI
We propose an algorithm to automate fault management in an outdoor cellular network using deep reinforcement learning (RL) against wireless impairments. This algorithm enables the cellular network cluster to self-heal by allowing RL to learn how to improve the downlink signal to interference plus noise ratio through ex…
We propose a non-parametric anomaly detection algorithm for high dimensional data. We score each datapoint by its average -NN distance, and rank them accordingly. We then train limited complexity models to imitate these scores based on the max-margin learning-to-rank framework. A test-point is declared as an anomaly…
We propose a non-parametric anomaly detection algorithm for high dimensional data. We first rank scores derived from nearest neighbor graphs on -point nominal training data. We then train limited complexity models to imitate these scores based on the max-margin learning-to-rank framework. A test-point is declared as…
New initialization techniques improve the performance and speed of EMI sensor-based object discrimination.
problem Improving the performance and speed of EMI sensor-based object discrimination.
method Proposed and evaluated new initialization techniques for MI-ACE.
result Comparison of initialization approaches shows improved performance and speed.
A new method detects changes in data sequences by comparing backward and forward confidence sequences.
problem Detecting changes in data sequences over time.
method Constructing and comparing backward and forward confidence sequences.
result The method successfully detects changes with strong nonasymptotic guarantees.
E-valuator converts verifier scores into reliable decision rules.
problem Ensuring the correctness of agent trajectories based on heuristic scores.
method Sequential hypothesis testing framework for online monitoring of agent trajectories.
result E-valuator provides better false alarm rate control and statistical power than other strategies.
Classifiers deployed in the real world operate in a dynamic environment, where the data distribution can change over time. These changes, referred to as concept drift, can cause the predictive performance of the classifier to drop over time, thereby making it obsolete. To be of any real use, these classifiers need to d…
Automated scoring engines are increasingly being used to score the free-form text responses that students give to questions. Such engines are not designed to appropriately deal with responses that a human reader would find alarming such as those that indicate an intention to self-harm or harm others, responses that all…
Machine learning detects drilling anomalies, reducing accidents and costs.
problem Detecting and preventing accidents during directional drilling.
method Time-series comparison using machine learning and Gradient Boosting classification.
result The model detects half of the anomalies with about 0.53 false alarms per day.
Proposes real-time risk monitoring for machine learning systems under unknown shifts.
problem Dynamic distribution shifts challenge real-world machine learning systems' risk assurances.
method Sequential hypothesis testing with 'testing by betting' to detect risk violations.
result Effective real-time risk monitoring under various unknown shifts.
Model change detection is studied, in which there are two sets of samples that are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) according to a pre-change probabilistic model with parameter , and a post-change model with parameter , respectively. The goal is to detect whether the change in the model is sign…
Novel online graph-based method detects changes in high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in detecting changes in high-dimensional data.
method Graph-based similarity measure derived from graph-spanning ratio.
result High detection power and controlled false alarm rate for high-dimensional data.
Reduces change detection to estimation using confidence sequences.
problem Detecting changes in data streams with minimal delay and false alarms.
method Reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences.
result Change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions and strong guarantees.
Testing randomnessmath.PR
The paper reviews methods for testing randomness and exchangeability in sequential data.
problem Testing the randomness and exchangeability of sequential data.
method Conformal martingales for online testing of randomness and exchangeability.
result Valid and efficiency results for various conformal martingale-based procedures.
DeepAISE predicts sepsis onset with high accuracy and low false alarms.
problem Early prediction of sepsis in ICU patients to improve clinical situational awareness.
method Recurrent neural survival model that combines clinical criteria and treatment policies.
result DeepAISE produces the most accurate predictions (AUC=0.90 and 0.87) and lowest false alarm rates (FAR=0.20 and 0.26) compared to baseline models.
Geometric observables detect financial regime shifts with high accuracy.
problem Detecting regime shifts in financial markets.
method Extracted four geometric observables from equity-index returns and evaluated them against various baseline methods.
result The Berry Phase Rate achieves an unbiased out-of-sample median Cohen's d of 0.72, significantly reducing false alarms.
DeXposure-Claw supervises decentralized finance risks by grounding LLM decisions in evidence.
problem Weak evidence leads to over-interventions by general-purpose LLM agents in decentralized finance.
method DeXposure-Claw uses a graph time-series foundation model to forecast exposure networks, turning forecasts into alerts and constraining escalation with data-health gates.
result DeXposure-Claw reduces false alarms and improves regulator alignment in decentralized finance risk supervision.
Study speaker verification security using hierarchical Bayesian modeling.
problem Estimating false alarm rate in ASV systems for large speaker databases.
method Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of ASV scores to assess security against closest impostors.
result Neither i-vector nor x-vector systems are secure against increased impostor database size.
On Rank Energy Statistics via Optimal Transport: Continuity, Convergence, and Change Point Detectionstat.ML
Paper uses optimal transport-based statistics for change point detection.
problem Change point detection in multivariate data.
method Soft rank energy and entropically regularized optimal transport.
result Soft rank energy performs better in real datasets with strong continuity and convergence properties.
New test detects independence in streaming data, adapting to data complexity.
problem Independence testing in streaming data with adaptive stopping.
method Sequential kernelized independence tests using betting principles.
result Valid inference in streaming data with improved power.
Automatic Emergency Dust-Free solution on-board International Space Station with Bi-GRU (AED-ISS)stat.AP
Team aims to predict particulate matter levels on ISS using Bi-GRU.
problem Early warning system for particulate matter on ISS.
method Bi-GRU algorithm analyzing past 90 minutes of data.
result Bi-GRU predicts particulate matter levels up to 1 minute in advance.