AI models failed to profitably predict cryptocurrency extrema on Binance Spot.
problem Tackling the profitability of candle-based machine learning models for short-term cryptocurrency trading.
method Scripted fixed-seed model runs and deterministic simulators with human supervision.
result Strongest evidence found negative, with models underperforming buy-and-hold strategies.
Study finds Binance's tether-margined contracts significantly impact bitcoin volatility.
problem Understanding volatility transmission in the crypto market, especially through Binance.
method Analyzing high-frequency realised volatility dynamics and spillovers in bitcoin market pairs.
result Binance's tether-margined contracts are the primary source of volatility and transmit strong flows.
Modeling cryptocurrency spot-quotient variation as a diffusion process.
problem Intraday variation between ETHBTC spot and quotients on Binance.
method Modeling variation as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, testing for mean-reversion, using maximum likelihood estimation.
result Intraday variation is not constant at 0, showing mean-reversion behavior with larger deviations in the first year.
FTX's failure linked to Terra-Luna collapse and Binance's influence.
problem FTX's collapse due to misuse of native token and reliance on leverage.
method Analyzed on-chain data, studied cryptocurrency dependency structures, and examined public trades.
result FTX's downfall was accelerated by Binance's tweets and public reaction.
This study compares price discovery in ETH and BTC markets between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
problem Understanding price discovery dynamics in cryptocurrency markets.
method Comparative analysis of centralized and decentralized exchanges, using econometric tools.
result Centralized exchanges lead in ETH price discovery, while futures markets lead in BTC.
Prediction markets and crypto options show persistent pricing gaps.
problem Comparing prediction markets and crypto options for identical payoffs.
method Comparing Polymarket Yes prices with Binance call option prices.
result Mean pricing gap of 5.6 percentage points across 214 hourly observations.
The paper analyzes algorithmic trading in cryptocurrency exchanges, finding a profitable strategy involving indirect conversions.
problem Lack of empirical analysis of algorithmic trading in cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Empirical analysis using historical trades data from Binance.
result A triangular arbitrage strategy yields a 14.4 basis point advantage over direct exchanges.
TGARCH model shows CSI-300 futures reduce spot price volatility.
problem Impact of CSI-300 futures trading on spot price volatility.
method TGARCH model applied to CSI-300 index data.
result CSI-300 futures trading significantly reduces spot price volatility.
Paper develops new spot regression estimators using candlesticks for asset pricing.
problem Estimation of spot betas in asset pricing and risk management.
method Develops a new estimation and inference framework for spot regressions using high-frequency candlesticks.
result The proposed candlestick-based estimators reduce estimation risk and achieve higher power in hypothesis testing.
SVAR-LiNGAM reveals causal order in crypto-asset markets.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between spot rates and crypto-assets.
method Applied SVAR-LiNGAM to analyze spot exchange rates and crypto-asset exchange rates.
result Causal order found: EUR_USD spot rate -> Bitcoin -> Ethereum -> Ripple.
Study hot spots on warped product manifolds and infinite cones.
problem Analyzing hot spots on specific geometric structures.
method Examining solutions to the heat equation on warped product manifolds and infinite cones.
result Hot spots behavior on warped product manifolds and infinite cones determined.
Hot spots conjecture proven for small eigenvalue domains.
problem Hot spots conjecture for hyperbolic planar domains with small eigenvalues.
method Proved a variant of Rauch's hot spots conjecture.
result Second Neumann Laplace eigenfunctions have no interior critical points on large convex domains.
LLT improves cryptocurrency price movement prediction accuracy.
problem Predicting intraday price movements of cryptocurrencies.
method Linear law-based feature space transformation (LLT) applied to cryptocurrency price data.
result LLT significantly enhances prediction accuracy for all cryptocurrencies.
Continuous Speech Keyword Spotting (CSKS) is the problem of spotting keywords in recorded conversations, when a small number of instances of keywords are available in training data. Unlike the more common Keyword Spotting, where an algorithm needs to detect lone keywords or short phrases like "Alexa", "Cortana", "Hi Al…
This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated Lévy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of Lévy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main modelling idea consists of four principles: First, deseasonalised spot prices can be modelled di…
Hybrid models forecast EPEC energy spot prices.
problem Forecasting energy spot prices in EPEC markets.
method Combining Naive, Fourier, ARMA/GARCH, mean-reversion, jump-diffusion, and RNN models.
result Improved accuracy in forecasting compared to individual models.
Paper presents a deep reinforcement learning algorithm for online trading without offline training.
problem Developing a fully online trading algorithm without offline training.
method Double Deep Q-learning with Fast Learning Networks, defining terminal states for money conservation. result The algorithm outperforms random action trading and captures different market trends.
Improved MF-DFA model analyzes precious metals market efficiency and multifractality.
problem Analyze price fluctuations in precious metals market.
method Proposed Bi-OSW-MF-DFA method compared to MF-DFA.
result Bi-OSW-MF-DFA method shows better efficiency in precious metals market analysis.
The study proves constant-curvature analogues of hot spots conjecture for triangles.
problem Proving the hot spots conjecture in constant curvature domains.
method Analyzing geodesic triangles of constant negative curvature and using Killing fields.
result First mixed Dirichlet-Neumann Laplace eigenfunctions have no non-vertex critical points in constant curvature triangles.
In this paper we introduce a flexible HJM-type framework that allows for consistent modelling of intraday, spot, futures, and option prices. This framework is based on stochastic processes with economic interpretations and consistent with the initial term structure given in the form of a price forward curve. Furthermor…
Research forecasts electricity spot prices using stochastic volatility models.
problem Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in a spot market.
method Exploring and enriching a baseline stochastic volatility model with exogenous regressors.
result A better fitting model confirmed by out-of-sample forecasts.
SpotV2Net forecasts intraday spot volatilities using graph attention networks.
problem Forecasting multivariate intraday spot volatilities accurately.
method Graph Attention Network architecture with Fourier estimates of spot and vol-of-vol volatilities.
result SpotV2Net outperforms other models in forecasting accuracy.
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
New method for spot volatility estimation with reduced microstructure noise.
problem Estimating spot volatility from noisy high-frequency data.
method Pre-averaging/kernel estimator to handle microstructure noise.
result Optimal bandwidth selection and kernel functions for minimal variance.
Study compares two factor models for electricity spot prices across different periods.
problem Analyzing performance of factor models for electricity spot prices in various time periods.
method Developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for model calibration and used simulations and posterior predictive checks for evaluation.
result 4-factor model outperforms 3-factor model in non-crisis times, but not in crises.
Empirical study finds variance swap rate is affine in spot variance for S&P500 data.
problem Investigating the relationship between variance swap rate and spot variance.
method Empirical analysis using S&P500 data from 2006-2018, testing different models.
result Affine relationship between variance swap rate and spot variance is supported.
Most models for barrier pricing are designed to let a market maker tune the model-implied covariance between moves in the asset spot price and moves in the implied volatility skew. This is often implemented with a local volatility/stochastic volatility mixture model, where the mixture parameter tunes that covariance. T…
Agents trained in simulation may make errors in the real world due to mismatches between training and execution environments. These mistakes can be dangerous and difficult to discover because the agent cannot predict them a priori. We propose using oracle feedback to learn a predictive model of these blind spots to red…
A new method for spotting symbols in CAD images reduces annotation costs and improves accuracy.
problem Challenging task of labeling symbols from CAD drawings.
method Pixel-wise point location via Progressive Gaussian Kernels (PGK) and local offset.
result The proposed method achieves good generalization on real-world CAD images.
A new model adds stochastic spot/volatility correlation to Heston model for better exotic pricing.
problem Improving exotic option pricing in foreign exchange markets.
method Developed a Double Heston model with stochastic spot/volatility correlation, an affine model.
result The new model increases prices of out-of-the-money knockout options and one touch options.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
Self-training with noisy student-teacher boosts keyword spotting accuracy.
problem Robust keyword spotting in challenging conditions.
method Aggressive data augmentation and self-training with noisy student-teacher approach.
result Significant accuracy improvement in difficult conditions, up to 60%.
Derives pricing formulas for perpetual futures contracts.
problem Ensuring fair pricing of perpetual futures contracts without expiration.
method Explicit expressions derived for various types of perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures.
result Futures price is the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price sampled at a random time reflecting funding payments.
CNNs can develop blind spots due to uneven padding in feature maps.
problem Spatial bias in convolutional networks leads to blind spots in certain tasks.
method Identified and analyzed the role of padding in convolutional networks, proposing solutions to mitigate bias.
result Mitigating spatial bias improves model accuracy, especially in tasks like small object detection.
We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key characteristics of electricity spot prices such as their link to fuel prices, consumption leve…
The paper proves the consistency and efficiency of a volatility estimator in noisy data.
problem Proving the consistency and efficiency of a volatility estimator in the presence of microstructure noise.
method Proves asymptotic normality using Central Limit Theorem for Fourier spot volatility estimator.
result Proves consistency and asymptotic efficiency of the Fourier spot volatility estimator in noisy data.
The adversarial training procedure proposed by Madry et al. (2018) is one of the most effective methods to defend against adversarial examples in deep neural networks (DNNs). In our paper, we shed some lights on the practicality and the hardness of adversarial training by showing that the effectiveness (robustness on t…
This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts…
We discuss stochastic modeling of volatility persistence and anti-correlations in electricity spot prices, and for this purpose we present two mean-reverting versions of the multifractal random walk (MRW). In the first model the anti-correlations are modeled in the same way as in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, i.e. via…
Keyword spotting--or wakeword detection--is an essential feature for hands-free operation of modern voice-controlled devices. With such devices becoming ubiquitous, users might want to choose a personalized custom wakeword. In this work, we present DONUT, a CTC-based algorithm for online query-by-example keyword spotti…
Study Fourier estimator for spot volatility with unbounded coefficients and jumps.
problem Estimating spot volatility with unbounded coefficients and jumps in price process.
method Fourier estimator for spot volatility, convergence analysis for unbounded coefficients and jumps.
result Convergence of trigonometric polynomial to volatility's path, almost sure convergence of reconstructed volatility.
Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.
problem Understanding the complex price behavior of global grain spot markets.
method Utilized multifractal fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to investigate intrinsic multifractality.
result Intrinsic multifractality found in maize and barley sub-indices, but not in wheat and rice.
We show that the mapping class group of a handlebody of genus at least 2 (with any number of marked points or spots) is exponentially distorted in the mapping class group of its boundary surface. The same holds true for solid tori with at least two marked points or spots.
In commodity markets the convergence of futures towards spot prices, at the expiration of the contract, is usually justified by no-arbitrage arguments. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that relies on the expected profit maximization problem of an agent, producing and storing a commodity while trading…
In this paper analytic formulas for electricity derivatives are calculated. To this end, we assume that electricity spot prices follow a 3-regime Markov regime-switching model with independent spikes and drops and periodic transition matrix. Since the classical derivatives pricing methodology cannot be used in case of …
We consider multilingual bottleneck features (BNFs) for nearly zero-resource keyword spotting. This forms part of a United Nations effort using keyword spotting to support humanitarian relief programmes in parts of Africa where languages are severely under-resourced. We use 1920 isolated keywords (40 types, 34 minutes)…
We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous variance curves implied by the market and study their daily variations jointly with sp…
Modeling European spot power markets with game theory for Nash equilibria.
problem Optimizing electricity markets with risk-averse players and constraints.
method Game-theoretic framework with Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel schemes for approximate Nash equilibria.
result Innovative risk aversion model reduces price dimensionality and ensures boundedness.