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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Bayesian CMA-ES

The paper updates Bayesian CMA-ES with normal Wishart and proves lower expected covariance.

problem Improving the Bayesian CMA-ES algorithm with normal Wishart prior.
method Revisits Bayesian CMA-ES, proves lower expected covariance in normal Wishart, and presents a generalized model.
result Proves that the expected covariance is lower in the normal Wishart prior model due to convexity of the inverse.

Paper introduces derivative-free optimization methods for deep learning model training.

problem Training deep learning models with gradient descent can get stuck in local optima.
method Bayesian methods and Lipschitzian approaches for global optimization.
result Improves deep learning model training by avoiding local optima.

This paper introduces derivative-free optimization methods for deep learning model training.

problem Training deep learning models using gradient descent can get stuck in local optima.
method Population based methods and random search approaches.
result Derivative-free methods can improve deep learning model training.

We present a scalable, black box, perception-in-the-loop technique to find adversarial examples for deep neural network classifiers. Black box means that our procedure only has input-output access to the classifier, and not to the internal structure, parameters, or intermediate confidence values. Perception-in-the-loop…

2019-01-21abs ↗pdf ↗

CMA-ME combines CMA-ES and MAP-Elites for better quality and diversity in continuous domains.

problem Finding a diverse set of high-quality solutions in complex continuous domains.
method Combines CMA-ES self-adaptation with MAP-Elites archiving and mapping.
result CMA-ME outperforms MAP-Elites in both quality and diversity of solutions.

Modern machine learning uses more and more advanced optimization techniques to find optimal hyper parameters. Whenever the objective function is non-convex, non continuous and with potentially multiple local minima, standard gradient descent optimization methods fail. A last resource and very different method is to ass…

2018-12-27abs ↗pdf ↗

LLMs struggle to optimize hyperparameters efficiently, but hybrid methods can improve performance.

problem Optimizing hyperparameters of small language models using LLMs.
method Comparison of classical HPO algorithms and LLM-based methods, introducing Centaur hybrid approach.
result Hybrid Centaur approach achieves best results, outperforming classical and pure LLM methods.

This tutorial introduces the CMA Evolution Strategy (ES), where CMA stands for Covariance Matrix Adaptation. The CMA-ES is a stochastic, or randomized, method for real-parameter (continuous domain) optimization of non-linear, non-convex functions. We try to motivate and derive the algorithm from intuitive concepts and …

2016-04-04abs ↗pdf ↗

A new black-box optimizer using implicit natural gradient.

problem Efficient optimization for complex, computationally intensive problems.
method Stochastic update with implicit natural gradient of an exponential-family distribution.
result Theoretical convergence rate for convex functions and continuous non-differentiable functions.

New method improves SACOBRA's performance on high-conditioning optimization problems.

problem High-conditioning optimization problems with expensive objective functions.
method Online whitening applied to SACOBRA in the black-box optimization paradigm.
result Online whitening reduces optimization error by a factor of 10 to 1e12 compared to plain SACOBRA.

In this paper, we revisit the parameter learning problem, namely the estimation of model parameters for Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). DBNs are directed graphical models of stochastic processes that encompasses and generalize Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs). Whenever we apply these mo…

2018-12-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Quantum neural networks improve causal inference in biomedical studies, especially for small samples.

problem Addressing selection bias in comparing surgical techniques using observational data.
method Developed QNN-based propensity score models focusing on four key covariates (Age, Sex, Stage, BMI). Employed a linear ZFeatureMap for data encoding, SummedPaulis for predictions, and CMA-ES for optimization. Integrated noise modeling to enhance predictive stability.
result QNNs, particularly with noise-aware strategies, outperformed classical models in small samples, achieving AUC up to 0.750 for n=100.

Study predicts 2015 Chinese stock market bubble using LPPLS model.

problem Detecting and predicting the 2015 Chinese stock market bubble.
method Calibrated Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, Lomb spectral analysis, Unit-root tests, CMA-ES optimization.
result The LPPLS model can predict the actual critical day (tc) two months before the bubble crash.

New sampling method reduces variance in correlated high-dimensional distributions.

problem Reducing variance in Monte Carlo estimators for correlated high-dimensional distributions.
method DPPMC (Determinantal Point Processes Monte Carlo) method for structured sampling.
result DPPMCs improve state-of-the-art in various optimization and machine learning problems.

New deep learning model optimizes energy use in buildings.

problem Optimizing energy use and comfort in large buildings.
method Transformer-based metamodel trained with simulation and sensor data, calibrated with CMA-ES, optimized with multi-objective algorithms.
result Optimal settings reduce energy loads while maintaining thermal comfort and air quality.

New loss function optimization improves training speed and accuracy.

problem Optimizing neural network performance through loss functions.
method Genetic Loss-function Optimization (GLO) using genetic programming and CMA-ES.
result GLO loss functions lead to better performance with fewer training steps.

We present an off-policy actor-critic algorithm for Reinforcement Learning (RL) that combines ideas from gradient-free optimization via stochastic search with learned action-value function. The result is a simple procedure consisting of three steps: i) policy evaluation by estimating a parametric action-value function;…

2018-12-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Information-Geometric Optimization (IGO) is a unified framework of stochastic algorithms for optimization problems. Given a family of probability distributions, IGO turns the original optimization problem into a new maximization problem on the parameter space of the probability distributions. IGO updates the parameter …

2012-11-16abs ↗pdf ↗

In statistical modelling the biggest threat is concept drift which makes the model gradually showing deteriorating performance over time. There are state of the art methodologies to detect the impact of concept drift, however general strategy considered to overcome the issue in performance is to rebuild or re-calibrate…

2018-10-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.

problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.

We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanatio…

2016-05-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved MORE algorithm reduces regret in black-box optimization and RL tasks.

problem Noisy fitness evaluations and poor sample quality in black-box optimization.
method Decouples mean and covariance updates, uses entropy scheduling, and simplifies model learning.
result Significantly reduces regret in black-box optimization and RL tasks.

Bayesian methods enhance deep learning models by improving reliability and uncertainty.

problem Improving reliability and uncertainty awareness in deep learning models.
method Approximate Bayesian inference techniques, including SG-MCMC and VI, applied to deep learning models.
result Enhanced posterior inference for deep learning models, particularly in neural networks and generative models.

Bayesian hybrid models correct for missing physics in machine learning.

problem Systematic bias in machine learning models.
method Fusing physics-based insights with machine learning constructs, using Bayesian calibration and stochastic programming.
result Bayesian hybrid models outperform pure machine learning approaches with less data.

Enhances robustness in experimental design through Generalised Bayesian inference.

problem Poor inference and estimates of information gain when statistical model is incorrectly specified.
method Generalised Bayesian (Gibbs) inference framework applied to experimental design.
result GBOED enhances robustness to outliers and incorrect assumptions about noise distribution.

Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.

problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.

Bayesian MAML outperforms MAML in meta learning tasks with theoretical guarantees.

problem Theoretical understanding of Bayesian MAML's superiority over MAML.
method Comparison of meta test risks between Bayesian MAML and MAML in meta linear regression.
result Bayesian MAML has provably lower meta test risks than MAML in both distribution agnostic and linear centroid cases.

Bayesian REX learns Atari games from demonstrations efficiently.

problem Bayesian reward learning for complex control problems is computationally intractable.
method Bayesian Reward Extrapolation (Bayesian REX) pre-trains a low-dimensional feature encoding and uses preferences to perform fast Bayesian inference.
result Bayesian REX learns Atari games from demonstrations in 5 minutes, competitive with state-of-the-art methods.

This paper improves deep learning by integrating Bayesian inference into network structure learning.

problem Bayesian inference in high-dimensional, over-parameterized neural networks.
method Developed an efficient stochastic variational inference approach to learn both network structure and weights.
result Empirically, the method exhibits competitive predictive performance and preserves Bayesian benefits.