The paper addresses statistical inference issues in adaptive experiments.
problem Statistical inference problems in adaptive experiments.
method Explains and fixes statistical inference issues in adaptive experiments using various methods.
result Various methods to stabilize inferences and recover asymptotic normality.
Optimal adaptive experiment for choosing best treatment with binary outcomes.
problem Choosing the best treatment from binary options in an adaptive experiment.
method Adaptive experiment with two phases: treatment allocation and choice. Neyman allocation method used.
result Neyman allocation is minimax and Bayes optimal, matching lower bounds for regret.
iDAD uses neural networks to quickly adapt experiments without likelihoods.
problem Performing adaptive experiments in real-time with implicit models.
method iDAD learns a design policy network upfront to make quick design decisions.
result iDAD can make design decisions in milliseconds, unlike traditional BOED approaches.
A new method for analyzing adaptive experiments using kernel treatment effects.
problem Efficiently analyzing adaptive experiments that adjust treatment assignments based on outcomes.
method Kernel Treatment Effects (KTE) framework combining RKHS scores and witness functions.
result Effective for both mean shifts and higher-moment differences, outperforming adaptive baselines.
Paper proposes a new DR estimator for adaptive experiments with improved performance.
problem Improving policy evaluation in adaptive experiments with dependent samples.
method Adaptive-fitting variant of sample-splitting for non-Donsker nuisance estimators.
result Proposed DR estimator shows better performance than other estimators with dependent samples.
The paper proposes a learning algorithm that improves adaptability and generalization.
problem Improving adaptability and generalization in learning models.
method Learning to meta-learn by meta-finetuning on related tasks before adapting to specific tasks.
result Learning to meta-learn improves adaptability and generalization across various tasks.
This study optimizes covariate density and propensity score for efficient ATE estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) with minimal variance.
method Adaptive experiment optimizing both covariate density and propensity score.
result Proposed method minimizes the semiparametric efficiency bound for ATE estimation.
In this paper, we study the design and analysis of experiments conducted on a set of units over multiple time periods where the starting time of the treatment may vary by unit. The design problem involves selecting an initial treatment time for each unit in order to most precisely estimate both the instantaneous and cu…
Adaptive designs achieve strong Neyman regret guarantees for ATE estimation.
problem Estimating unbiased average treatment effect in sequential experiments.
method Proposed adaptive designs with O ~ ( log T ) \widetilde{O}(\log T) O ( log T ) Neyman regret under boundedness assumptions and O ~ ( T ) \widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) O ( T ) multigroup Neyman regret in covariate-based settings. result Adaptive designs outperform non-adaptive designs in terms of Neyman regret, especially in covariate-based settings.
DAD learns to design experiments quickly, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Real-time decision-making in sequential Bayesian experimental design.
method Amortized design network trained with contrastive information bounds.
result DAD outperforms alternative strategies on various problems.
Unified model optimizes experiment performance and reduces duration.
problem Balancing reward maximization and experiment termination.
method Unified model that considers both within-experiment and post-experiment outcomes.
result Familiar algorithms can optimize a broad class of objectives with proper parameter adjustment.
New method improves treatment effect estimation in adaptive experiments with noncompliance.
problem Estimating average treatment effect in adaptive experiments with binary instrumental variable.
method AMRIV estimator that balances outcome noise and compliance variability.
result AMRIV achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and is robust to noncompliance.
GBS uses machine learning to design products based on consumer preferences.
problem Designing products to meet consumer preferences.
method GBS is a discrete choice experiment that uses machine learning to adaptively construct paired comparison questions.
result GBS outperforms existing methods in accuracy and sample efficiency.
Paper optimizes experimental design for estimating treatment effect.
problem Estimating treatment effect with heterogeneous subjects and treatments.
method Adaptive experimental design incorporating bandit learning.
result Demonstrates optimality of proposed adaptive experiment framework.
This paper proposes a new AED framework for multi-metric experiments with fixed budget.
problem Statistical power challenges in testing multiple metrics simultaneously.
method Two-phase structure: adaptive exploration followed by validation. SHRVar algorithm with relative-variance-based sampling.
result Achieves provable error probability that decreases exponentially.
Efficient inference method for adaptive experiments with tighter confidence sequences.
problem Efficient inference of Average Treatment Effect in a changing policy sequential experiment.
method Semiparametric efficient inference using Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator and asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Derives tighter confidence sequences for adaptive experiments under data-dependent stopping times.
The paper develops a method for self-normalized inference in adaptive experiments.
problem Adaptive experiments require a fixed horizon for ATE estimation, but propensities can change.
method The method uses self-normalized martingale limit theory to estimate ATE.
result The Studentized statistic is asymptotically N(0,1) at the prespecified horizon.
Policy gradient reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have achieved impressive performance in challenging learning tasks such as continuous control, but suffer from high sample complexity. Experience replay is a commonly used approach to improve sample efficiency, but gradient estimators using past trajectories typica…
Adapts MBDOE for real-time parameter estimation in complex systems.
problem Costly posterior inference and design optimization in nonlinear systems.
method Combines DAD with differentiable mechanistic models for real-time parameter estimation.
result Demonstrated on four systems, including a DC motor.
A new method for adaptive experiments improves inference.
problem Current inference methods for adaptive experiments are weak and asymptotic.
method Simulation-based inference using optimistic simulations.
result Our method achieves better coverage and narrower intervals.
New analysis shows surprising results on adaptation speed of causal models.
problem Investigate the adaptation speed of causal models under interventions.
method Use convergence rates from stochastic optimization to measure adaptation speed.
result Surprising findings: anticausal model can be faster than causal model under certain conditions.
Curious Replay improves model-based reinforcement learning agents' adaptability.
problem Existing model-based reinforcement learning agents struggle to adapt quickly to changing environments.
method Curious Replay uses a curiosity-based priority signal for prioritized experience replay tailored to model-based agents.
result Agents using Curious Replay achieve improved performance in exploration and on benchmarks.
ABHT boosts regression by filtering regions with different smoothness.
problem Improving regression performance through local adaptivity.
method Gradient boosting with adaptive histogram transform.
result ABHT converges faster than PEHT in Hölder continuous spaces.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
Unified framework for response-adaptive targeting in multi-treatment experiments
problem Improving ethical and statistical efficiency in multi-treatment clinical trials
method Response-adaptive targeting strategies
result Unified framework for α α α -Rebalancing Targeting Strategies ( α α α RTS) ASD algorithm maximizes model estimates by adaptively labeling points.
problem Maximizing model estimates through adaptive labeling of points in a sequential decision-making problem.
method Formulated a general information-directed sampling (IDS) algorithm with theoretical guarantees for linear, graph, and low-rank models.
result IDS algorithm outperforms in both simulation and real-data experiments for discovering chemical reaction conditions.
Study optimizes experimental design for best treatment arm identification.
problem Identifying the best treatment arm given contextual information.
method Adaptive Sampling-Policy Learning (PLAS) strategy for minimax rate optimality.
result PLAS strategy achieves minimax rate optimality in expected simple regret.
BAM integrates new data while selectively remembering past observations.
problem Slow adaptation and convergence to incorrect parameter values in non-stationary environments.
method Bayes' theorem with adaptive memory selection.
result BAM generalizes and demonstrates continuous adaptation in changing environments.
From scientific experiments to online A/B testing, the previously observed data often affects how future experiments are performed, which in turn affects which data will be collected. Such adaptivity introduces complex correlations between the data and the collection procedure. In this paper, we prove that when the dat…
Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials. Inferential challenges are exacerbated when our parameter of interest differs from the pa…
We propose a new concept named adaptive submodularity ratio to study the greedy policy for sequential decision making. While the greedy policy is known to perform well for a wide variety of adaptive stochastic optimization problems in practice, its theoretical properties have been analyzed only for a limited class of p…
New method for estimating counterfactual means in adaptive experiments.
problem Inference for counterfactual means in sequentially designed experiments with adaptive treatment policies.
method Latent factor model and nearest neighbors method for estimation.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for counterfactual means established.
CARL safely adapts RL agents for safety-critical tasks.
problem Safety hazards in RL for safety-critical tasks.
method CARL combines model-based RL and cautious adaptation.
result CARL achieves higher rewards with fewer failures in safety-critical tasks.
New confidence intervals improve treatment effect estimation in randomized experiments.
problem Improving confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments.
method Systematic exploitation of negative dependence or variance adaptivity.
result Achieved nonasymptotic confidence intervals with the same effective sample size as asymptotic ones.
Develops a flexible batched experimentation framework for limited adaptivity.
problem Challenges of continual reallocation in bandit algorithms with delayed feedback.
method Computational framework leveraging Gaussian sequential experiment and dynamic programming.
result Improves statistical power over standard methods, even compared to Bayesian bandit algorithms.
Step-DAD improves BED by periodically updating a design policy during experiments.
problem Improving flexibility and robustness in Bayesian experimental design.
method Semi-amortized, policy-based approach that updates a design policy during data collection.
result Consistently superior decision-making and robustness compared to current BED methods.
This paper introduces AdaSDCA: an adaptive variant of stochastic dual coordinate ascent (SDCA) for solving the regularized empirical risk minimization problems. Our modification consists in allowing the method adaptively change the probability distribution over the dual variables throughout the iterative process. AdaSD…
DABS uses a policy network to select experiments in high-dimensional design spaces.
problem Adaptive factorial screening in high-dimensional discrete design spaces.
method DABS learns a policy network offline to sequentially select experiments, incorporating sparsity and interactions via a spike-and-slab prior.
result DABS achieves superior accuracy and scalability over classical and Bayesian baselines under tight experimental budgets.
We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and utilizes the expected improvement idea from Bayesian global optimization. We adapt…
New method optimizes multiple objectives in A/B testing for AI and clinical trials.
problem Minimizing cumulative regret, maximizing CATE, and ensuring differential privacy in large-scale experiments.
method ConSE and DP-ConSE algorithms for sequential segmentation and elimination, achieving Pareto-optimal frontier.
result Privacy comes 'for free' in our framework, with only asymptotically negligible costs to regret and accuracy.
New algorithm balances user reward and statistical inference by mixing TS with UR based on difference size.
problem Combining statistical inference with user reward in adaptive experiments.
method TS-PostDiff algorithm that uses UR when differences are small and TS when large.
result TS-PostDiff reduces false positives and increases statistical power for small differences, while maximizing reward for large ones.
Syntax designs adaptive trials for subpopulations with potential benefits.
problem Identifying subpopulations with positive treatment effects in diverse patient populations.
method Adaptive patient recruitment and synthetic control estimation.
result Syntax outperforms conventional trial designs in identifying beneficial subpopulations.
Study uses contextual bandits to optimize charity exposure in donation solicitation.
problem Optimizing charity exposure in donation solicitation using survey responses.
method Adaptive experiment design to balance cumulative regret minimization and simple regret minimization.
result Adaptive experimentation yields better policy learning outcomes than uniform randomization.
We study how to efficiently estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) using adaptive experiments. In adaptive experiments, experimenters sequentially assign treatments to experimental units while updating treatment assignment probabilities based on past data. We start by defining the efficient treatment-assignment prob…
Improved privacy and utility in machine learning with adaptive differential privacy.
problem Enhancing privacy in machine learning models while maintaining utility.
method Adaptive differentially private (ADP) learning method that optimally adapts noise to stepsize.
result ADP method significantly improves utility compared to standard differentially private methods.
Feature extraction from persistence diagrams, as a tool to enrich machine learning techniques, has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper we explore an adaptive methodology to localize features in persistent diagrams, which are then used in learning tasks. Specifically, we investigate three algori…
Adapting policy learning for data collected from evolving systems.
problem Challenges in learning optimal policies from adaptively collected data.
method Proposes an algorithm based on generalized augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimators to control worst-case estimation variance.
result Achieves minimax rate optimal regret guarantees even with diminishing exploration.
Adaptive PCR improves panel data analysis with uniform guarantees.
problem Adaptive data collection in panel data settings.
method Adapting PCR to online settings using martingale concentration.
result Time-uniform guarantees for adaptive PCR in panel data.