We improve prediction set coverage by assigning weights to individual sets.
problem Aggregating multiple prediction sets weakens overall coverage guarantee.
method Propose a framework for weighted aggregation of prediction sets.
result Achieve tighter coverage bounds that interpolate between 1−2α and 1−α guarantees. WBCP improves conformal prediction for distribution shifts using weighted Dirichlet posteriors.
problem Handling distribution shifts in conformal prediction.
method Generalizes Bayesian Quadrature Conformal Prediction (BQ-CP) to arbitrary importance-weighted settings.
result WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing richer uncertainty information.
Paper uses GNN and conformal prediction for accurate edge weight prediction.
problem Predicting edge weights on graphs for various applications.
method Graph Neural Network (GNN) with conformal prediction and error reweighting.
result Our method provides better coverage and efficiency than baselines.
Due to a resource-constrained environment, network compression has become an important part of deep neural networks research. In this paper, we propose a new compression method, \textit{Inter-Layer Weight Prediction} (ILWP) and quantization method which quantize the predicted residuals between the weights in all convol…
Optimal weighted random forests improve prediction accuracy.
problem Unequal prediction performance among random forest trees.
method Proposes 1-step and 2-step optimal weighting algorithms.
result Asymptotically optimal in terms of squared loss and risk.
CDST improves ensemble prediction by adjusting model weights based on covariates.
problem Improving ensemble prediction accuracy in complex scenarios.
method Covariate-dependent stacking (CDST) with flexible model weights estimated via cross-validation.
result CDST consistently outperforms conventional model averaging methods in complex datasets.
Extend CPS to non-exchangeable settings with observation-specific permutation weights
problem Calibrated predictive bands under distributional shifts
method Encoding distributional shifts through observation-specific permutation weights
result Shift-aware predictive systems remain valid
The paper predicts edge weights in weighted directed networks using metric geometry.
problem Predicting edge weights in weighted directed networks.
method Introducing new types of weighted directed networks (AWDNs), constructing metrics, and proposing modified kNN and SVM methods.
result The proposed methods outperform traditional approaches in predicting edge weights.
New CV method reduces bias in spatial prediction models.
problem Bias in standard cross-validation due to uneven sampling.
method Target-Weighted Cross-Validation (TWCV) framework.
result Weighted CV approaches reduce bias in prediction error.
A new stock selection strategy uses combined machine learning with dynamic weighting methods.
problem Improving stock selection accuracy and performance.
method Combined machine learning algorithms with static and dynamic weighting methods.
result IC-based dynamic weighting outperforms static evaluation metrics in backtested returns and predictive performance.
BayesBlend blends multiple models' predictions for better insurance loss predictions.
problem Improving insurance loss predictions by combining multiple models.
method Pseudo-Bayesian model averaging, stacking, and hierarchical stacking.
result BayesBlend provides a user-friendly way to blend model predictions and estimate weights.
Predicting neural network accuracy from weights without testing.
problem Predicting neural network performance based on weights alone.
method Used simple statistics of weights to rank neural networks' performance.
result Simple predictors can rank networks' performance with high accuracy (R2 score > 0.98).
New criterion improves predictive evaluation in weighted inference scenarios.
problem Improving predictive evaluation in scenarios with different likelihoods for estimation and evaluation.
method Developed the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC) to handle weighted likelihood inference.
result PCIC is asymptotically unbiased for quasi-Bayesian generalization error in weighted inference.
Novel method for time-series prediction with tighter confidence intervals.
problem Improving prediction intervals for time-series data.
method Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI) using adaptive weights.
result KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage.
A new approach optimizes weights in DLP for better risk-adjusted performance.
problem Optimizing time-varying weights in Double Linear Policy (DLP) for better risk-adjusted performance.
method Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) framework to maximize risk-adjusted returns while enforcing constraints.
result Empirical results show improved risk-adjusted performance and drawdown control.
Improves conformal prediction by combining multiple score functions and optimizing weights.
problem Limitations of single-score conformal predictors in multi-class classification.
method Combines multiple score functions and optimizes weights to minimize prediction set size.
result Consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage.
Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
problem Improving prediction intervals for non-exchangeable time-indexed datasets
method Spectral adaptive conformal prediction
result Improves on fixed spectral weighting while monitoring uncertainty changes
We demonstrate that there is significant redundancy in the parameterization of several deep learning models. Given only a few weight values for each feature it is possible to accurately predict the remaining values. Moreover, we show that not only can the parameter values be predicted, but many of them need not be lear…
Paper proposes a new time series prediction method using weighted past data and optimization.
problem Predicting time series data with improved accuracy considering both deterministic and stochastic assumptions.
method The approach uses a weighted sum of past data, solving a constrained linear optimization problem to minimize an outer bound of prediction error.
result The method can outperform existing non-parametric methods in short-term forecasts.
MANA-Net improves market predictions by dynamically weighting news sentiments.
problem Aggregated Sentiment Homogenization in financial news data.
method Dynamic market-news attention mechanism to aggregate sentiments.
result MANA-Net outperforms recent market prediction methods by 1.1% Profit & Loss and 0.252 daily Sharpe ratio.
The paper analyzes prediction error in nonstationary settings using weighted risk minimization.
problem Prediction under distribution drift and nonstationary conditions.
method General decomposition of excess risk into learning and drift terms, proving oracle inequalities under mixing conditions.
result Oracle inequalities for the learning error, providing bounds that hold uniformly over arbitrary weight classes.
Proposes a method to generate prediction intervals using weighted asymmetric loss functions.
problem Generating reliable prediction intervals for neural network models.
method Uses a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate prediction intervals.
result The method produces reliable prediction intervals in complex machine learning scenarios.
A study on optimizing data augmentation weights for improved test-time predictions.
problem Improving robustness of predictions during testing with data augmentation methods.
method A weighted Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) approach based on variational Bayesian framework to optimize weights.
result Optimizing weights suppresses unwanted data augmentations and improves prediction performance.
Enhances linear regression with Kalman filter for loss minimization.
problem Minimizing loss in linear regression models.
method Integrates Kalman filter and SGD for optimal weight updates.
result Develops optimal linear regression equation with minimum area under curve.
Adapts attention to supervised learning for personalized predictions.
problem Personalized predictions for each data point with model simplicity.
method Local model fitting with attention weighting for tabular data.
result Attention weighting improves predictive performance and preserves interpretability.
Develops conformal Bayes for two-sided censored Gaussian regression under label shift.
problem Prediction under label shift with censored responses.
method Combines posterior predictive tilting with weighted conformal calibration.
result Restores marginal coverage with smaller prediction sets.
Efficiently combines probabilistic predictions using kernel embeddings.
problem Combining multiple probabilistic predictions to improve forecast accuracy.
method Embed predictions into RKHS, optimizes kernel-based scoring rules, finds efficient implementation.
result Generalised linear pool outperforms traditional linear pool in operational wind speed forecasts.
For many machine learning algorithms, two main assumptions are required to guarantee performance. One is that the test data are drawn from the same distribution as the training data, and the other is that the model is correctly specified. In real applications, however, we often have little prior knowledge on the test d…
Paper proposes a cost-sensitive conformal training method with provably controllable learning bounds.
problem Uncertainty quantification and learning bounds in conformal prediction.
method Cost-sensitive conformal training algorithm that minimizes the expected size of prediction sets using rank weighting.
result Theoretical analysis shows tightness between weighted objective and expected size of conformal prediction sets.
NGSLL combines DNN accuracy with linear model interpretability.
problem Combining high accuracy of DNNs with interpretability of linear models.
method Neural generators of sparse local linear models (NGSLL) using DNNs to approximate non-linear functions.
result Effective in real-world datasets, achieving high predictive performance and interpretability.
Proposes PFWCP for multi-agent tasks with privacy and validity guarantees.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for multi-agent settings.
method Personalized federated weighted conformal prediction (PFWCP) combining local density ratio weighting and weighted quantile aggregation.
result Asymptotically valid coverage guarantees for each agent in heterogeneous settings.
Economics tool predicts failure times in reliability systems.
problem Predicting optimal failure times in weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
method Using rational expectations to analyze and predict failure times in reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
result Different measures are optimal for predicting system failure depending on component failure distributions.
Bio-inspired neural networks use predictive coding for efficient weight updates.
problem Training artificial neural networks efficiently and biologically plausibly.
method Predictive Coding (PC) updates weights locally using only local information.
result PC provides theoretical advantages like automatic gradient scaling.
Improved random forest models enhance machine learning predictions.
problem Equal weights for random forest base decision trees are not optimal.
method Proposes algorithms to modify weighting strategy of regular random forest.
result Numerical results show significant improvements over regular random forest.
Paper explains DRL strategies for portfolio management using linear models.
problem Difficulty in understanding DRL-based trading strategies.
method Empirical approach using linear models and integrated gradients.
result DRL agents show stronger multi-step prediction power than machine learning methods.
AF improves classification models by adaptively weighting trees.
problem Improving classification model performance.
method AF combines OP2T for input-dependent weights and MIO for dynamic refinement.
result AF consistently outperforms RF, XGBoost, and other weighted RF.
A new method corrects weight values to improve treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in high-dimensional data with sample selection bias.
method Differentiable Pareto-Smoothed Weighting (DPSW) framework.
result Our method outperforms existing methods in treatment effect estimation.
Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures for predictability. In this paper we propose novel empirical likelihood methods …
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Expe…
A new method for averaging model predictions using minimum divergence.
problem Improving model averaging methods, especially in small samples.
method Minimum divergence framework for model weight calculation.
result Empirically outperforms standard model averaging methods.
PPI uses predictions and weighting to infer from partially labeled data.
problem Valid inference with partially labeled data.
method Combines model-based predictions with bias correction from labeled data, using Horvitz-Thompson and Hájek corrections.
result IPW-adjusted PPI with estimated propensities performs similarly to known-probability case.
WildWood improves Random Forest predictions using bootstrap out-of-bag samples.
problem Improving Random Forest predictions for supervised learning.
method Uses bootstrap out-of-bag samples to compute improved predictions by aggregating all possible subtrees with exponential weights.
result WildWood produces faster and more competitive predictions compared to other ensemble methods.
Tests assess if predictions are prudent by comparing observations and predictions.
problem Assessing the prudence of predictions in samples of observations and predictions.
method Bootstrap and normal approximation algorithms for testing unweighted and weighted means, accounting for randomness.
result Tests reveal whether predictions are prudent by showing significantly negative mean differences.
Proposes fwelnet to improve prediction using feature information.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in supervised learning settings.
method fwelnet uses feature-weighted elastic net to adapt feature penalties.
result fwelnet outperforms lasso in test MSE and feature selection.
A new method estimates uncertainty without explicit prediction models.
problem Costly data acquisition in machine learning.
method Distance-weighted Class Impurity method for uncertainty estimation.
result Distance-weighted Class Impurity effectively estimates uncertainty without prediction models.
DAMVI algorithm improves imbalanced binary classification by adjusting weights of examples and classifiers.
problem Imbalanced binary classification tasks where minority class is underrepresented.
method DAMVI algorithm increases positive example weights and optimizes classifier weights using PAC-Bayesian C-Bound.
result DAMVI outperforms state-of-the-art models on various imbalanced datasets.
Airlines optimize fuel loading with better flight time predictions.
problem Flight time uncertainties and their impact on fuel consumption.
method Developed a spatial weighted recurrent neural network model.
result The model provides more accurate flight time predictions, reducing fuel consumption.