Paper uses GNN and conformal prediction for accurate edge weight prediction.
problem Predicting edge weights on graphs for various applications.
method Graph Neural Network (GNN) with conformal prediction and error reweighting.
result Our method provides better coverage and efficiency than baselines.
Extend CPS to non-exchangeable settings with observation-specific permutation weights
problem Calibrated predictive bands under distributional shifts
method Encoding distributional shifts through observation-specific permutation weights
result Shift-aware predictive systems remain valid
Improves conformal prediction by combining multiple score functions and optimizing weights.
problem Limitations of single-score conformal predictors in multi-class classification.
method Combines multiple score functions and optimizes weights to minimize prediction set size.
result Consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage.
WBCP improves conformal prediction for distribution shifts using weighted Dirichlet posteriors.
problem Handling distribution shifts in conformal prediction.
method Generalizes Bayesian Quadrature Conformal Prediction (BQ-CP) to arbitrary importance-weighted settings.
result WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing richer uncertainty information.
Novel method for time-series prediction with tighter confidence intervals.
problem Improving prediction intervals for time-series data.
method Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI) using adaptive weights.
result KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage.
Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
problem Improving prediction intervals for non-exchangeable time-indexed datasets
method Spectral adaptive conformal prediction
result Improves on fixed spectral weighting while monitoring uncertainty changes
Paper proposes a cost-sensitive conformal training method with provably controllable learning bounds.
problem Uncertainty quantification and learning bounds in conformal prediction.
method Cost-sensitive conformal training algorithm that minimizes the expected size of prediction sets using rank weighting.
result Theoretical analysis shows tightness between weighted objective and expected size of conformal prediction sets.
Proposes PFWCP for multi-agent tasks with privacy and validity guarantees.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for multi-agent settings.
method Personalized federated weighted conformal prediction (PFWCP) combining local density ratio weighting and weighted quantile aggregation.
result Asymptotically valid coverage guarantees for each agent in heterogeneous settings.
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
We improve prediction set coverage by assigning weights to individual sets.
problem Aggregating multiple prediction sets weakens overall coverage guarantee.
method Propose a framework for weighted aggregation of prediction sets.
result Achieve tighter coverage bounds that interpolate between 1−2α and 1−α guarantees. Develops conformal Bayes for two-sided censored Gaussian regression under label shift.
problem Prediction under label shift with censored responses.
method Combines posterior predictive tilting with weighted conformal calibration.
result Restores marginal coverage with smaller prediction sets.
Develop conformal prediction for dyadic regression under complex missingness.
problem Conformal prediction for dyadic regression under complex missingness mechanisms.
method Developing general technical tools and conformal prediction procedures for dyadic regression under complex missingness.
result Establishing asymptotic validity of weighted conformal prediction under a nonparametric graphon model for missingness mechanism.
Conformal Bayes under label shift: post-hoc calibration vs. in-training adaptation
problem Bayesian prediction sets under label shift
method Post-hoc calibration vs. In-training adaptation
result Both strategies achieve valid coverage equally in an unbiased training regime
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
COMA combines prediction sets from multiple models for online, adaptive prediction.
problem Combining multiple prediction models with uncertainty guarantees.
method Online model aggregation using weighted voting of conformal prediction sets.
result COMA retains coverage guarantees under negative correlation assumptions.
Spatially weighted conformal prediction improves uncertainty quantification in house price models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in automated valuation models with spatial dependencies.
method Survey and demonstration of various spatially weighted approaches to adjust conformal prediction confidence sets.
result Spatially weighted CP makes confidence sets more consistently calibrated across geographical regions.
Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.
problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.
Adapts conformal prediction for missing data, ensuring valid coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification with missing covariates.
method Proposes a reweighted conformal prediction procedure for handling missing values.
result Guaranteed Marginal Coverage and Mask-Conditional Validity for general missing data mechanisms.
New method uses label-weighted conformal prediction for macro-coverage guarantees in classification.
problem Finding a balance between class-conditional and marginal coverage in long-tailed datasets.
method Label-weighted conformal prediction for macro-coverage guarantees.
result Validated prediction sets with macro-coverage guarantees on large-scale image datasets.
Improves GNN prediction sets with conformal prediction for node classification.
problem Lack of predictive uncertainty for GNN models.
method Adapted conformal prediction for graph data, weighting scores based on graph structure.
result Better calibrated and tighter prediction sets than naive conformal prediction.
WCPS extends CPS to handle covariate shifts, providing probabilistically calibrated predictions.
problem Applying CPS to scenarios with covariate shifts.
method WCPS uses likelihood ratios between training and testing covariate distributions.
result WCPS are probabilistically calibrated under covariate shift.
The paper tackles uncertainty quantification in multi-source settings.
problem Uncertainty quantification under covariate shift is challenging in multi-source settings.
method The paper addresses this by proposing two extensions of weighted conformal prediction: merge-based aggregation and data-pooling.
result Theoretical guarantees are provided for the proposed approaches, and experiments validate their effectiveness.
Improved conformalized quantile regression for adaptive prediction intervals.
problem Lack of adaptiveness in the conformal step of conformalized quantile regression.
method Cluster explanatory variables by permutation importance and apply k conformal steps.
result Improved prediction intervals are more adaptive to heteroscedasticity.
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
problem Offline model-based optimization
method Conformal Candidate Certification (CCC)
result CCC certifies 16.7% of an aggressive proposal pool with 0.990 empirical coverage at nominal 0.90.
New federated conformal prediction method addresses label shift for uncertainty quantification.
problem Label shift in federated learning and its impact on uncertainty quantification.
method Quantile regression-based federated conformal prediction method with privacy constraints.
result Method provides valid coverage of prediction sets and differential privacy guarantees.
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.
problem Validity of conformal prediction for network data under non-representative sampling.
method Interprets sampling mechanisms as selection rules, studies validity conditional on selection events, uses permutation invariance and joint exchangeability.
result Finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events and asymptotic validity for random walk sampling.
The paper tackles time series data by applying conformal prediction with nearest neighbors.
problem Time series data violates the exchangeability assumption required for conformal prediction.
method The approach uses the nearest neighbors method with fast parameter tuning and weighted nearest neighbors (FPTO-WNN) to construct reliable prediction intervals.
result Data analysis shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Unified framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in RL.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-stakes reinforcement learning.
method Unified conformal prediction framework integrating distributional RL and conformal calibration.
result Significantly improved coverage and reliability over standard methods.
A new method combines conformal prediction with Super Learner for interval predictions.
problem Constructing reliable interval predictions for complex regression functions.
method Coupling conformal prediction with Super Learner framework.
result The conformalized SL achieves valid finite-sample coverage with competitive performance.
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
problem High-impact events require very high confidence prediction intervals, but classical methods provide uninformative intervals.
method Bridge extreme value statistics and conformal prediction to provide reliable and informative prediction intervals.
result Provides reliable and informative prediction intervals with high-confidence coverage.
WR-CP reduces prediction set size and coverage gap under distribution shift.
problem Guaranteed coverage under distribution shift not achievable with i.i.d. assumption.
method Wasserstein distance, probability measure pushforwards, importance weighting, regularized representation learning.
result Reduces coverage gap to 3.2% across different confidence levels.
This paper develops methods for obtaining distribution-free prediction regions for invariant representations.
problem Distributional shifts in machine learning models.
method Invariant risk minimization and weighted conformity scores.
result Proves the effectiveness of adaptive conformal intervals for uncertainty estimation.
A new method for online prediction uncertainty quantification in non-exchangeable panel data.
problem Challenges in quantifying predictive uncertainty for non-exchangeable panel data.
method Online conformal prediction framework for non-exchangeable panel data, using similarity weights and adaptive miscoverage levels.
result Improves coverage on worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation.
This paper tackles hidden state inference for HMMs using particle filtering.
problem Inference for hidden states under HMMs is challenging due to unavailable true labels.
method Adaptive conformal inference framework using particle filtering.
result The framework produces prediction sets with specific aggregated coverage levels.
CPATTA uses conformal prediction for efficient test-time adaptation.
problem Low data selection efficiency in existing ATTA methods.
method Conformal Prediction, online weight-update algorithm, domain-shift detector, staged update scheme.
result CPATTA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 5% in accuracy.
New method makes CP intervals locally adaptive using trainable transformations.
problem Making Conformal Prediction intervals locally adaptive.
method Defining a trainable change of variables φX(A) that depends on object attributes X. result Locally adaptive prediction intervals with guaranteed marginal validity and variable sizes.
Proposes non-exchangeable conformal risk control for better uncertainty bounds.
problem Handling non-exchangeable data in black-box models for better risk control.
method Leverages and extends split conformal prediction and monotone loss function approaches.
result Allows controlling expected value of any monotone loss function for non-exchangeable data.
Adaptive PI by reweighting nonconformity scores improves model uncertainty reflection.
problem CP methods using a constant correction for all test points ignore individual uncertainties.
method QRF learns distribution of nonconformity scores and assigns weights to samples.
result PI lengths more aligned with model uncertainty and improved adaptiveness.
Proposes a new method for conformal prediction under covariate shift with posterior drift.
problem Improving classification performance in target domains with limited training data.
method Weighted conformal classifier that leverages source and target samples.
result Demonstrates favorable asymptotic properties and practical utility.
GC-FCP provides efficient federated CP with group-conditional coverage guarantees.
problem Uncertainty quantification in federated settings with distributed calibration data.
method Group-conditional federated conformal prediction (GC-FCP) using group-stratified coresets.
result GC-FCP offers efficient aggregation and calibration compared to centralized methods.
NCP improves deep classifier uncertainty quantification efficiency.
problem Uncertainty quantification for deep classifiers in high-stake applications.
method Neighborhood Conformal Prediction (NCP) algorithm.
result NCP produces smaller prediction sets than traditional CP methods.
Normalizing Flows improve prediction interval efficiency in CP.
problem Inefficient prediction intervals in CP due to non-uniform error distribution.
method Train a Normalizing Flow to optimize the distance metric between errors and inputs.
result Optimized prediction intervals are more efficient and valid.
New methods for quantifying insurance claim cost uncertainty using LightGBM and GLMs.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty in insurance claim costs.
method Proposed non-conformity measures for GLMs and GBMs with Tweedie loss.
result Locally weighted Pearson residuals outperform other methods in maintaining nominal coverage with smallest average width.
Adapts Gaussian process surrogate evaluation with conformal prediction for better coverage guarantees.
problem Uncertainty quantification and model specification issues in Gaussian process surrogate models.
method Adaptive cross-conformal prediction intervals using posterior standard deviation weighting.
result Conformal prediction intervals provide significant correlation with surrogate model error and frequentist coverage guarantees.
This paper improves STL inference reliability under covariate shift.
problem Ensuring correct STL formulas in real-world settings with distribution shift.
method Proposes a conformalized STL inference framework that addresses covariate shift.
result Significantly improves symbolic learning reliability at deployment time.
This paper improves risk control for financial markets by calibrating VaR forecasts using conformal methods.
problem Nonstationary and regime-dependent losses in financial markets.
method Regime-weighted conformal risk control (RWC) for VaR forecasting.
result RWC improves regime-conditional stability in some settings with modest conservativeness changes.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.