New algorithm provides robust uncertainty quantification without parameter tuning.
problem Real-world machine learning predictors need reliable uncertainty quantification.
method Parameter-free, group-conditional online prediction algorithm.
result Achieves best group-conditional coverage guarantees.
GC-FCP provides efficient federated CP with group-conditional coverage guarantees.
problem Uncertainty quantification in federated settings with distributed calibration data.
method Group-conditional federated conformal prediction (GC-FCP) using group-stratified coresets.
result GC-FCP offers efficient aggregation and calibration compared to centralized methods.
New insights link no-regret learning to online conformal prediction in adversarial settings.
problem Understanding the relationship between no-regret learning and online conformal prediction in adversarial environments.
method Analysis of existing algorithms and new connections between no-regret learning and conformal prediction.
result No-regret learning algorithms can provide group-conditional coverage guarantees in adversarial settings.
MACI improves LLM factuality inference with higher retention and lower time cost.
problem Ensuring factuality in LLM responses for high-stakes domains.
method Reformulated conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, leveraging ensembles for more accurate factuality scores and group-conditional calibration.
result MACI achieves higher retention and lower time cost compared to baselines, preserving validity through group-conditional calibration.
The paper presents a method to improve trust in deep learning models for crop and weed classification.
problem Lack of user trust in deep learning models for precision agriculture due to their complexity and uncertainty.
method Group-conditional conformal prediction via quantile regression calibration.
result The proposed method provides valid statistical guarantees on the predictive performance of deep learning models.
A new VAE model identifies and estimates treatment effects with limited overlap.
problem Identifying and estimating treatment effects when subjects with certain features belong to a single treatment group.
method Developed a latent variable model to estimate a prognostic score, which is sufficient for treatment effects. The model is a new type of VAE called β-Intact-VAE.
result The model identifies individualized treatment effects and provides TE error bounds.
Audited Conformal Prediction improves conditional coverage in pretrained models under distribution shift.
problem Uncertainty quantification for pretrained models under unknown distribution shift
method Leverages a small labeled dataset to train an audit model for marginal coverage, integrates outputs into conformal prediction framework
result Significantly higher conditional coverage than existing approaches
Unified framework for generalized Venn and Venn-Abers calibration for reliable prediction.
problem Asymptotic guarantees of popular distribution-free methods in model calibration.
method Unified framework extending Vovk's approach to generic loss functions, transforming predictors into set-valued predictions.
result Finite-sample set predictions shrink to a single conditionally calibrated prediction, capturing epistemic uncertainty.
We address the task of identifying densely connected subsets of multivariate Gaussian random variables within a graphical model framework. We propose two novel estimators based on the Ordered Weighted ℓ1 (OWL) norm: 1) The Graphical OWL (GOWL) is a penalized likelihood method that applies the OWL norm to the lowe…
Kandinsky conformal prediction expands conditional coverage guarantees.
problem Disparities in coverage guarantees across different subpopulations.
method Flexible handling of overlapping and fractional group memberships.
result Minimax-optimal high-probability conditional coverage bound.
Develops CPL for optimal prediction set length and validity.
problem Balancing conditional validity and length efficiency in conformal prediction.
method Conformal Prediction with Length-Optimization (CPL).
result Achieves optimal prediction set length while maintaining conditional validity.
SCIENCE improves prediction intervals for individual causal effects.
problem Wide prediction intervals limit practical utility of causal inference.
method Surrogate-assisted conformal inference for efficient individual causal effects.
result SCIENCE produces more efficient prediction intervals for individual causal effects.
Adaptive uncertainty quantification improves black-box model predictions in generative AI.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification for black-box models in generative AI.
method Adaptive partitioning and local calibration of conformity scores.
result Local tightening of uncertainty sets with adaptive bands.
Method predicts biomarker trajectories with uncertainty bands for Alzheimer's disease.
problem Uncertainty in biomarker predictions poses risks in clinical deployment.
method Conformal prediction for randomly-timed biomarker trajectories.
result Conformal bands achieve desired coverage and are tighter than baseline.
Study optimizes data collection from biased, costly sources to minimize risk.
problem Estimating population means and group-conditional means from multiple sources with varying costs and biases.
method Develops a sampling plan that maximizes effective sample size, paired with a post-stratification estimator.
result Achieves budgeted minimax optimal risk for estimating population means and group-conditional means.
Estimates heterogeneous treatment effects by grouping conditional average treatment effects.
problem Non-randomized experiments suffer from selection bias.
method Doubly-robust estimator, machine learning for propensity score and conditional mean functions, linear projection model, Neyman-orthogonal moments.
result Lower absolute errors and smaller bias compared to benchmark estimator.
Imagine that measurements are made at times t0 and t1 of the trajectory of a physical system whose governing laws are given approximately by a class A of so-called {\em prior vector fields}. Because the physical laws are not known precisely, it might be that the measurements are not realised by the integ…
Feature representations from pre-trained deep neural networks have been known to exhibit excellent generalization and utility across a variety of related tasks. Fine-tuning is by far the simplest and most widely used approach that seeks to exploit and adapt these feature representations to novel tasks with limited data…