New encoding improves volatility surface generation and risk management.
problem Generating accurate synthetic volatility surfaces from limited data.
method PCA variational auto-encoder model to encode surface descriptors into a latent space.
result Better scenario generation, volatility extrapolation, and direct stock surface inference.
The implied volatility smile surface is the basis of option pricing, and the dynamic evolution of the option volatility smile surface is difficult to predict. In this paper, attention mechanism is introduced into LSTM, and a volatility surface prediction method combining deep learning and attention mechanism is pioneer…
Modeling implied volatility surface dynamics with Hawkes kernels.
problem Understanding and predicting high-frequency dynamics of the implied volatility surface.
method Hawkes modeling of the volatility surface, with coefficients governing skew and convexity.
result Simple conditions on Hawkes kernel coefficients ensure no-arbitrage and reduce parameter estimation.
Framework predicts implied volatility surface without arbitrage.
problem Predicting implied volatility surface without static arbitrage.
method Two-step framework: feature selection and deep neural network (DNN) construction.
result DNN model for surface construction removes static arbitrage and reduces prediction error.
Generative adversarial networks enforce no-arbitrage in volatility surface computation.
problem Efficiently compute volatility surfaces without arbitrage violations.
method Generative adversarial network (GAN) with no-arbitrage constraints.
result Proposed GAN model outperforms ANN approaches in accuracy and computational time.
A new method to estimate local volatility from high-frequency data.
problem Quantitative trading risk management needs a better way to estimate volatility.
method Realized local volatility surface estimated via high-frequency data and Bayesian nonparametric estimation.
result The method can capture counterfactual volatility and improve risk management.
Deep learning models price options using volatility surfaces.
problem Pricing exotic options with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Variational autoencoder for volatility surface compression, multilayer perceptron for option pricing.
result Trained model achieves high accuracy across American and Asian options.
Study uses sentiment analysis to predict implied volatility surface, improving prediction accuracy.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of implied volatility surface.
method Constructed daily high-frequency sentiment data, used VAR method, deep learning (BERT, LSTM), FFT, EMD for sentiment decomposition.
result High-frequency sentiment correlates with ATM options' implied volatility, low-frequency with DOTM options.
The paper proposes a new method to calibrate option pricing models that accurately match both volatility surfaces and variance term structures.
problem Calibrated models often produce inaccurate variance term structures relative to market observations.
method The paper introduces a joint calibration framework that augments the conventional objective function with a penalty term for variance term structure deviations, using a hyperparameter to balance volatility surface and variance term structure weights.
result The proposed method accurately fits observed option prices while delivering realistic term structures of variance.
Study local volatility from rough volatility models, finding new skew rule.
problem Understanding local volatility from rough volatility models.
method Analyzing asymptotic behavior of local volatility surface generated by rough stochastic volatility models.
result New skew rule: ratio of implied and local vol skews tends to 1/(H + 3/2).
Enhanced hedging for S&P 500 options using volatility surface data.
problem Optimizing hedging strategies for S&P 500 options with transaction costs.
method Deep policy gradient reinforcement learning with volatility surface feedback.
result Outperforms conventional hedging methods in simulations and backtesting.
Variational autoencoders help estimate missing volatility data.
problem Estimating missing points on partially observed volatility surfaces.
method Derive latent variables, construct synthetic surfaces fitting available data.
result Synthetic volatility surfaces can be used for stress testing and exotic option valuation.
The implied volatility surface (IVS) is a fundamental building block in computational finance. We provide a survey of methodologies for constructing such surfaces. We also discuss various topics which can influence the successful construction of IVS in practice: arbitrage-free conditions in both strike and time, how to…
In this article we propose a generalisation of the recent work of Gatheral and Jacquier on explicit arbitrage-free parameterisations of implied volatility surfaces. We also discuss extensively the notion of arbitrage freeness and Roger Lee's moment formula using the recent analysis by Roper. We further exhibit an arbit…
New method calibrates eSSVI volatility surfaces without arbitrage.
problem Sequential calibration of eSSVI surfaces lacks global view and guarantees no arbitrage.
method Global and arbitrage-free parametrization of eSSVI surfaces.
result Faster calibration always guarantees an arbitrage-free fit.
Study evaluates risk in options using volatility surface projections.
problem Risk assessment of options due to their non-linear price behavior and volatility fluctuations.
method Parametric surface projection method for implied volatility.
result Enhanced risk evaluation through dynamic volatility surface analysis.
In this article, we show how to calibrate the widely-used SVI parameterization of the implied volatility surface in such a way as to guarantee the absence of static arbitrage. In particular, we exhibit a large class of arbitrage-free SVI volatility surfaces with a simple closed-form representation. We demonstrate the h…
Dynamic functional time-series methods improve forecast accuracy for foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets.
method Dynamic functional principal component analysis and multivariate functional time-series methods.
result Dynamic univariate functional time-series method shows the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy.
Fast ML framework for derivative valuation from volatility surfaces.
problem Derivative valuation from complex volatility surfaces.
method Parameterized SVI model, synthetic market scenarios, Gaussian Process Regressor.
result Very accurate and fast (3-4 orders of magnitude) derivative valuations.
A new Bachelier model explains oil option volatility during the pandemic.
problem Describing and predicting the volatility surface of oil options during the pandemic.
method Additive Bachelier model with three parameters: volatility term structure, vol-of-vol, and skew.
result The model accurately describes the volatility surface and supports efficient pricing of exotic options.
Study on skew and curvature of implied and local volatilities using Malliavin calculus.
problem Relationship between short-end of local and implied volatility surfaces.
method Malliavin calculus techniques
result Recover the $ rac{1}{H+3/2}$ rule for rough volatilities and relationships between skew and curvature.
New model predicts implied volatility using past asset price paths.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces and asset prices.
method Proposes a new model using past asset price trajectories to predict implied volatility.
result Large part of implied volatility movements can be explained by past returns and squares.
We propose a new static parameterization of the implied volatility surface which is constructed by using polynomials of sigmoid functions combined with some other terms. This parameterization is flexible enough to fit market implied volatilities which demonstrate smile or skew. An arbitrage-free calibration algorithm i…
Proposes deep hedging for index options using implied volatility surface.
problem Managing risk in index option portfolios with complex dynamics.
method Integrates surface-informed decisions with multiple hedging instruments, accounting for transaction costs and variance risk premium.
result Consistently outperforms traditional hedging strategies across various market conditions.
Deep learning models reconstruct volatility surfaces from noisy data under no-arbitrage constraints.
problem Reconstructing implied volatility surfaces from sparse and noisy option quotes.
method Compared multiple neural architectures including Transformers, U-Nets, and variational autoencoders.
result Transformer and U-Net architectures achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, especially under sparse observation regimes.
Generative diffusion models forecast implied vol surfaces without arbitrage issues.
problem Forecasting arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces using historical data with path-dependent dynamics.
method Generative diffusion model (DDPM) with conditional training on market variables, including EWMAs and returns. Dynamic penalty scheme based on SNR to enforce arbitrage-free surfaces.
result Superior performance in volatility forecasting compared to existing methods.
A new method simulates implied volatility surfaces for multiple assets.
problem Generating consistent market scenarios for multiple asset implied volatilities.
method Combining functional data analysis and neural SDEs with a penalty for model misspecification.
result Simulated market scenarios are consistent with historical features and lie within the sub-manifold of essentially free static arbitrage.
A robust implementation of a Dupire type local volatility model is an important issue for every option trading floor. Typically, this (inverse) problem is solved in a two step procedure : (i) a smooth parametrization of the implied volatility surface; (ii) computation of the local volatility based on the resulting call…
DCNN improves volatility smile and skewness calibration without arbitrage constraints.
problem Calibrating volatility smile and skewness surfaces with no arbitrage constraints.
method Derivative-Constrained Neural Network (DCNN) incorporating derivatives in the loss function.
result DCNN generates a smooth surface that satisfies no-arbitrage conditions.
New method preserves option structure while using neural networks for volatility.
problem Inconsistent exotic option prices with model calibration.
method Volatility Feature Approach (VFA) using neural networks.
result VFA outperforms model calibration approach for practical volatility surfaces.
The paper derives closed-form approximations for mean-reverting SABR models and calibrates them to equity volatilities.
problem Calibration of mean-reverting SABR models to equity volatilities.
method Derive closed-form approximations using a CIR process for volatility, lognormal process for volatility, and CIR process for squared volatility. Calibrate to empirical volatilities using a computer algebra system.
result Calibrated mean-reverting SABR models provide excellent fits to equity volatilities with only five parameters per surface.
Paper develops a new model for predicting volatility surface.
problem Predicting volatility in financial markets is challenging due to its non-observable nature and complex dynamics.
method Physics-informed convolutional transformer architecture.
result The new model outperforms other deep-learning architectures in predicting volatility surface.
A new model fits SPX and VIX volatility surfaces and term structures efficiently.
problem Calibrating SPX and VIX volatility models to market data.
method Gaussian polynomial volatility models, joint calibration, functional quantization, Neural Networks.
result A conventional one-factor Markovian model outperforms rough and non-rough models.
This paper is devoted to the application of B-splines to volatility modeling, specifically the calibration of the leverage function in stochastic local volatility models and the parameterization of an arbitrage-free implied volatility surface calibrated to sparse option data. We use an extension of classical B-splines …
Develops a deep learning method for enforcing no-arbitrage in local volatility surfaces.
problem No-arbitrage conditions not enforced in deep learning approaches for local volatility.
method Jointly interpolates European vanilla option prices, enforcing no-arbitrage through modified loss functions or network architectures.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of enforcing no-arbitrage in local volatility surfaces using deep learning.
Model captures SPX and VIX volatility surfaces and skew-stickiness ratio.
problem Capturing volatility dynamics in financial markets.
method Two-factor Quintic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model with polynomial volatility.
result Model accurately represents SPX and VIX volatility surfaces and SSR.
We study specific nonlinear transformations of the Black-Scholes implied volatility to show remarkable properties of the volatility surface. Model-free bounds on the implied volatility skew are given. Pricing formulas for the European options which are written in terms of the implied volatility are given. In particular…
Continuous-time interpolation of volatility surfaces preserving mixtures and arbitrage-free.
problem Interpolation of volatility surfaces
method Constructing a mixture-preserving, arbitrage-free interpolation
result Lifts Brigo-Mercurio to time-varying weights with additive cost
Two ML approaches learn local volatility surfaces from option prices, with GP being arbitrage-free.
problem Interpolating European vanilla option prices to create a local volatility surface.
method Gaussian process regression and neural net with arbitrage penalties.
result GP approach is arbitrage-free and yields best out-of-sample calibration error.
Study uses SABR model to create implied volatilities from sparse quotes.
problem Creating accurate implied volatility surfaces from limited market data.
method Multitask Gaussian process with SABR model embeddings and hierarchical regularization.
result Model produces more accurate volatilities than single-task methods.
Generates consistent IV surfaces using VAEs and SDE models.
problem Creating arbitrage-free IV surfaces from historical data.
method Combining VAEs with SDE models for parameter distribution, sampling, and decoding.
result Superior out-of-sample performance of the refined VAE model.
We give a new proof of the representation of implied volatility as a time-average of weighted expectations of local or stochastic volatility. With this proof we clarify the question of existence of 'forward implied variance' in the original derivation of Gatheral, who introduced this representation in his book 'The Vol…
We consider stochastic volatility models using piecewise constant parameters. We suggest a hybrid optimization algorithm for fitting the models to a volatility surface and provide some numerical results. Finally, we provide an outlook on how to further improve the calibration procedure.
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the financialization of futures markets in the early 2000s, we investigate if these extant mod…
The paper models asset prices using Wiener chaos expansions for efficient calibration to implied volatility surfaces.
problem Calibrating to implied volatility surfaces using flexible martingale models.
method Constructing an over-parameterized martingale model based on Wiener chaos expansions and conditional expectations.
result The method enables fast calibration to implied volatility surfaces and demonstrates flexibility through numerical experiments.
The aim of this study was to develop methods for evaluating the American-style option prices when the volatility of the underlying asset is described by a stochastic process. As part of this problem were developed techniques for modeling the early exercise surface of the American option. These methods of present work a…
New method calibrates LV surfaces for exotic derivatives with smoother, more stable Greeks.
problem Challenges in LV calibration leading to spiky surfaces and unstable Greeks.
method Automatic local regression to pre-process market observables and smooth LV surfaces.
result Significantly smoother LV surfaces and greatly improved Greek stability with negligible additional cost.
In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In addition, fina…