Extends decision theory to handle unlikely events and varying risk attitudes.
problem Handling preferences for unlikely events and varying risk attitudes.
method Derives a subjective lexicographic expected utility representation.
result Provides foundations for models in finance and infinite dynamic games.
Adversarial model estimates event-time distributions from health data.
problem Nonparametric estimation of event-time distributions in time-to-event analysis.
method Adversarial learning approach with a principled cost function for censored events.
result Proposed model yields significant performance gains over parametric alternatives.
Paper proposes a new trading strategy using corporate event detection from news articles.
problem Predicting stock movements based on corporate events from news articles.
method Bi-level event detection model: low-level for token-level event identification, high-level for article-level event identification.
result The proposed strategy outperforms existing models in stock prediction metrics.
Proposes a non-conjugate model selection method for chain event graphs.
problem Existing model selection algorithms for chain event graphs rely on conjugate priors, which is unrealistic for many real-world applications.
method Proposes a mixture modelling approach to model selection in chain event graphs that does not rely on conjugacy.
result The proposed method is more scalable and robust than existing algorithms.
SurvSurf predicts first hitting times for intermittent events without monotonic violations.
problem Predicting first hitting times for intermittent events with monotonicity guarantees.
method Partially monotonic neural network for sequential events, incorporating unobserved events.
result SurvSurf outperforms existing models in MSE and IBS metrics.
Model counts event occurrences to detect and locate events in data.
problem Training deep neural networks with precise event locations.
method Weakly-supervised learning using occurrence counts.
result Comparable performance to fully-supervised methods with weaker training data.
Paper improves VaR risk allocation by avoiding zero probability events.
problem Computing VaR contributions for zero probability events.
method Reformulates Euler contributions to a ratio of conditional expectations with strictly positive probability events.
result Proposed estimator outperforms standard Monte Carlo methods in bias and variance.
ADD-THIN improves TPP forecasting by handling long-term data sequences.
problem Sequential limitations in autoregressive models for TPPs.
method Diffusion model for TPPs that operates on entire sequences.
result ADD-THIN outperforms state-of-the-art models in forecasting.
Flexible joint model predicts events from noisy multivariate data.
problem Predicting events from noisy multivariate time series data with missing values.
method Sparse multiple-output Gaussian processes for scalable joint modeling, optimal event prediction policy.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in event prediction.
SS-GEN simulates rare events in heavy and light-tailed data.
problem Estimating probabilities of extreme events in multivariate data.
method Self-Similar Generative Estimation (SS-GEN) decomposes tail distribution into radial and angular components.
result SS-GEN generates representative extreme scenarios and estimates rare-event probabilities beyond observed data.
The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.
problem Understanding the long-term behavior of Hawkes processes.
method Proving functional limit theorems under various conditions on the dispersion of child events.
result Functional limit theorems hold for Hawkes processes with different levels of child event dispersion.
ForecastQA creates a new QA task for event forecasting from text data.
problem Forecasting future events from unstructured text data.
method Formulated a restricted-domain, multiple-choice QA task for event forecasting.
result Best model achieves 60.1% accuracy, lagging behind human performance by about 19%
A new method for modeling event sequences with ambiguous timestamps.
problem Handling event sequences with variable timestamps and time-shifts.
method Time-discounting convolution with dynamic pooling.
result Efficiently models event dependencies and robust against timestamp uncertainty.
Researchers extend microlocal analysis across event horizons of rotating black holes.
problem Incomplete microlocal theory of fields across black hole event horizons.
method Extended microlocal theory for extremal rotating black holes, showing null covectors form an involutive double characteristic manifold.
result Mathematical basis for asymptotic oscillatory solutions near event horizons.
RED detects sleep EEG events using deep neural networks, outperforming previous methods.
problem Manual detection of sleep EEG events is time-consuming and variable.
method Deep Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with convolutional and recurrent components.
result RED outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sleep spindle and K-complex detection.
Python package cegpy models processes with asymmetries.
problem Leveraging CEGs for processes with structural asymmetries.
method Developed cegpy, a Python package for CEGs with Bayesian model selection and probability propagation.
result First CEG package in any language that can model symmetric and asymmetric structures.
A new neural network model for predicting event times without distributional assumptions.
problem Predicting event times from censored data with complex assumptions.
method Deep AFT Rank-regression model (DART) using Gehan's rank statistic.
result DART significantly improves performance on various benchmark datasets.
Investigates how extreme temperature events affect global equity portfolios.
problem Impact of extreme temperature events on global equity portfolios.
method Panel regression analysis and multi-objective portfolio optimization.
result Extreme temperature events negatively impact most sectors' returns.
Enhanced smartphone authentication using app usage patterns.
problem Low-latency continuous authentication for smartphones.
method Markovian process modeling, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), modified edit-distance algorithm.
result Effective incorporation of unforeseen events improves user verification performance.
Study on massless Vlasov equation on Reissner-Nordström spacetimes, showing decay rates and non-decay phenomena.
problem Analyzing decay and non-decay rates of solutions to the massless Vlasov equation on Reissner-Nordström spacetimes.
method Quantitative analysis of geodesic flow and comparison to wave equation instability results.
result Exponential decay rates in subextremal cases and polynomial rates in extremal cases, with non-decay of transversal derivatives in extremal cases.
Boost-R uses gradient boosted trees for analyzing recurrence data.
problem Analyzing recurrence data with static and dynamic features.
method Gradient boosted additive trees with time-dependent functions.
result Estimates the cumulative intensity function of recurrent event processes.
New trading model uses self-organization for real-world complexity.
problem Traditional trading models are too analytical for real-world conditions.
method Embraces self-organization, complex systems theory, and event-based time.
result Example Delta Engine algorithm demonstrates effectiveness.
Study on how SEU affects neural networks and proposes remedies.
problem Impact of SEU on neural networks' robustness.
method Defined fault models of SEU, defined sensitivity to SIPP, analytically explored network weaknesses, proposed remedies.
result Proposed remedies can mitigate accuracy degradation from 28% to 0.27%.
New algorithm speeds up MCMC for complex distributions.
problem Efficient sampling from complex, high-dimensional distributions.
method Numerical Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with state-dependent event rates.
result Approximates Hamiltonian trajectories for robust sampling.
SurvBESA predicts survival times using ensemble methods with self-attention.
problem Challenges in survival analysis due to censored data and unstable predictions.
method SurvBESA combines Beran estimators with a self-attention mechanism to predict survival times.
result SurvBESA outperforms state-of-the-art models in predicting survival times.
This study predicts individual-level events using social dynamics and variational inference.
problem Predicting individual-level events in social systems.
method Stochastic kinetic model and variational inference algorithm.
result The proposed method is more efficient than sampling and achieves high accuracy.
Paper develops a method to predict spatial point processes with guarantees.
problem Predicting the number of events in space with uncertainty.
method Regularized method to learn spatial models with out-of-sample guarantees.
result Method provides valid prediction intervals even when model is misspecified.
Proposes a new tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum risk event size.
problem Current risk measures like VaR and ES are limited in their applicability and require specifying a confidence level.
method Develops a new risk measure called MPMR that does not require a confidence level and scales with the length of the time interval.
result The new risk measure, MPMR, scales with the number of observations by a power law, allowing for reliable estimations of long-term risks based on short-term estimations.
Study improves VaR risk contribution estimation using MCMC.
problem Estimating risk contributions from VaR in financial risk management.
method Proposes a MH-based estimator for VaR contributions, leveraging MCMC.
result MH estimator shows smaller bias and MSE in various risk models.
The paper models market crashes as phase transitions, finding dynamic transitions offer better predictions.
problem Understanding and predicting extreme financial events like market crashes.
method Employing phase transition theory, focusing on endogenous crashes, and comparing DPT, CPT, and SPT.
result Dynamic phase transitions provide more accurate predictions of market crashes compared to critical and stochastic models.
The paper models default probabilities and total defaults in credit portfolios using a contagion process with self-exciting jumps.
problem Modeling default probabilities and total defaults in credit portfolios to mitigate credit risk.
method Developed a contagion process with self-exciting jumps to model credit events and derive closed-form expressions for default probabilities and total defaults.
result The proposed framework captures the feedback effect and can be used to price synthetic CDOs.
FedRD improves risk difference estimation in federated learning for clinical outcomes.
problem Privacy-preserving model co-training in medical research is hindered by server-dependent architectures and focus on relative effect measures.
method FedRD is a server-independent, communication-efficient framework for federated risk difference estimation in distributed survival data.
result FedRD provides valid confidence intervals and hypothesis testing, and is asymptotically equivalent to pooled individual-level analysis.
Study of potential Carroll structures and special Carrollian manifolds for null hypersurfaces.
problem Understanding intrinsic geometry of null hypersurfaces.
method Initiate study of potential Carroll structures and explore their relationship to special Carrollian manifolds.
result Initiate the study of potential Carroll structures and their relationship to special Carrollian manifolds.
The paper develops a test for independence of selected Gaussian variables after thresholding correlations.
problem Testing independence of selected Gaussian variables after thresholding correlations.
method The approach involves conditioning on the selection event and using a new characterization of the conditioning event in terms of canonical correlation.
result The proposed test has higher power than a naive approach that ignores selection effects.
New method for contextual bandit with missing rewards.
problem Contextual bandit with missing rewards in online settings.
method Combining contextual bandit approach with unsupervised learning (clustering) to estimate missing rewards.
result Promising empirical results on real-life datasets.
The paper examines how markets can anticipate and react to arbitrage opportunities, revealing biases and risks.
problem The tension between no arbitrage, information efficiency, and risk anticipation in markets.
method Continuous time analysis with model- or event-risk, allowing pre-horizon risk-resolution and Risk-Neutral Equivalent pricing.
result Optimised trading can suppress the anticipation of predictable risk-outcomes, creating an apparent Status Quo Bias.
We discuss some aspects about the computation of kinematic, spectroscopic, Fermi and astrometric relative velocities that are geometrically defined in general relativity. Mainly, we state that kinematic and spectroscopic relative velocities only depend on the 4-velocities of the observer and the test particle, unlike F…
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
Paper proposes PP-GCN for fine-grained social event categorization.
problem Challenges in mining social events due to heterogeneous event elements and social network structures.
method Design an event meta-schema, build an HIN, propose PP-GCN, and use KIES.
result PP-GCN outperforms other techniques in social event detection and clustering.
Active Kriging Monte Carlo simulation method with conformal certification for failure probability estimation
problem Failure probability estimation in structural reliability analysis
method Active learning framework with conformal prediction
result Improved uncertainty quantification and reliability of failure probability estimates
We introduce a method that uses the Cauchy-Crofton formula and a new curvature formula from integral geometry to reweight the sampling probabilities of Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithms in order to increase their convergence speed. We consider algorithms that sample from a probability density conditioned on a manifold…
Deep learning detects sleep events in EEG, reducing expert dependency.
problem Manual EEG event annotation by sleep experts is time-consuming and variable.
method Convolutional neural network for joint event detection in EEG signals.
result Deep learning method outperforms existing event-specific algorithms.
New method estimates treatment effects over time for survival data, improving accuracy and smoothness.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time for survival data with left truncation and right censoring.
method surv-iTMLE, a targeted learning procedure for estimating conditional survival probabilities.
result surv-iTMLE outperforms existing methods in bias and smoothness of time-varying effect estimates.
Proposes a method to predict stock movements using fine-grained events from finance news.
problem Lack of specific semantic information in coarse-grained events for stock movement prediction.
method Built a finance event dictionary, extracted fine-grained events, combined with stock trade data, and used distant supervision for training.
result Method outperforms all baselines and shows good generalizability.
Paper introduces a new outer measure for continuous price paths with instant enforcement.
problem Defining a new outer measure for continuous price paths with instant enforcement.
method Introducing an outer measure on the space [0,+∞)imesΩ that assigns zero value to instantly blockable sets. result Proves BDG inequalities and an Itô-type integral for the modified measure.
ProxiModel extracts high-quality news events from news corpora.
problem Mining high-quality structured event knowledge from noisy news data.
method ProxiModel uses a proximity-network to model event correlation within and across news corpora.
result ProxiModel efficiently and effectively extracts high-quality event descriptors and attributes.
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Bayesian analysis shows testimonies for common events increase belief in uncommon events.
problem Analyzing the reliability of testimonies for uncommon events based on common events.
method Full Bayesian solution considering large testimonies for common events and one for an uncommon event.
result The probability of an uncommon event increases when there are many testimonies for common events, making the event more plausible.