A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
PySAD offers a unified Python framework for efficient streaming anomaly detection.
A new method detects anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
Meta algorithm solves multivariate optimization using univariate optimizers.
This study compares multivariate vs univariate machine learning for multi-output regression.
Statistical tests that compare classification algorithms are univariate and use a single performance measure, e.g., misclassification error, measure, AUC, and so on. In multivariate tests, comparison is done using multiple measures simultaneously. For example, error is the sum of false positives and false negatives…
We consider families of strongly consistent multivariate conditional risk measures. We show that under strong consistency these families admit a decomposition into a conditional aggregation function and a univariate conditional risk measure as introduced Hoffmann et al. (2016). Further, in analogy to the univariate cas…
New simulations advise caution in choosing principal components for multivariate functional data.
Anomalies in time-series data give essential and often actionable information in many applications. In this paper we consider a model-free anomaly detection method for univariate time-series which adapts to non-stationarity in the data stream and provides probabilistic abnormality scores based on the conformal predicti…
AdaPTS adapts univariate FMs for multivariate time series forecasting.
Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for timeseries prediction that utilizes convolutional layers for feature extraction, a r…
New multivariate risk measures improve on univariate OCE methods.
Chronos-2 forecasts multivariate and covariate data without task-specific training.
The univariate piecing-together approach (PT) fits a univariate generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the upper tail of a given distribution function in a continuous manner. We propose a multivariate extension. First it is shown that an arbitrary copula is in the domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value …
Various approaches to gene selection for cancer classification based on microarray data can be found in the literature and they may be grouped into two categories: univariate methods and multivariate methods. Univariate methods look at each gene in the data in isolation from others. They measure the contribution of a p…
New algorithms benchmarked for multivariate time series classification.
Multivariate boosted trees improve forecasting and control by capturing correlated predictions.
In this paper, we introduce two alternative extensions of the classical univariate Value-at-Risk (VaR) in a multivariate setting. The two proposed multivariate VaR are vector-valued measures with the same dimension as the underlying risk portfolio. The lower-orthant VaR is constructed from level sets of multivariate di…
Extended univariate Range Value-at-Risk to multivariate settings.
We conduct an extensive empirical study on short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) to address the long-standing question if the optimal model structure for EPF is univariate or multivariate. We provide evidence that despite a minor edge in predictive performance overall, the multivariate modeling framework does …
New method for multivariate distribution regression using NPT metric.
Proposes MVG-CRPS for robust multivariate forecasting.
ARM improves multivariate time series forecasting by better capturing series-wise relationships.
In this paper we propose a computationally efficient algorithm for on-line variable selection in multivariate regression problems involving high dimensional data streams. The algorithm recursively extracts all the latent factors of a partial least squares solution and selects the most important variables for each facto…
In this study we suggest a portfolio selection framework based on option-implied information and multivariate non-Gaussian models. The proposed models incorporate skewness, kurtosis and more complex dependence structures among stocks log-returns than the simple correlation matrix. The two models considered are a multiv…
Method estimates multivariate counterfactual distributions efficiently and accurately.
We develop Square Root Graphical Models (SQR), a novel class of parametric graphical models that provides multivariate generalizations of univariate exponential family distributions. Previous multivariate graphical models [Yang et al. 2015] did not allow positive dependencies for the exponential and Poisson generalizat…
KQT-EWMA monitors multivariate data streams online with flexible and practical change detection.
We present the first adaptive strategy for active learning in the setting of classification with smooth decision boundary. The problem of adaptivity (to unknown distributional parameters) has remained opened since the seminal work of Castro and Nowak (2007), which first established (active learning) rates for this sett…
Time series anomaly detection plays a critical role in automated monitoring systems. Most previous deep learning efforts related to time series anomaly detection were based on recurrent neural networks (RNN). In this paper, we propose a time series segmentation approach based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) for …
The Poisson distribution has been widely studied and used for modeling univariate count-valued data. Multivariate generalizations of the Poisson distribution that permit dependencies, however, have been far less popular. Yet, real-world high-dimensional count-valued data found in word counts, genomics, and crime statis…
We study the problem of finding strain-minimising stream surfaces in a divergence-free vector field. These surfaces are generated by motions of seed curves that propagate through the field in a strain minimising manner, i.e., they move without stretching or shrinking, preserving the length of their arbitrary arc. In ge…
The paper bounds solutions to complex optimization problems with uncertain data.
In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability , the VaR is defined as a threshold loss value, such that the probability that the loss on the portfolio ove…
Hybrid LSTM-fully convolutional networks (LSTM-FCN) for time series classification have produced state-of-the-art classification results on univariate time series. We show that replacing the LSTM with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) to create a GRU-fully convolutional network hybrid model (GRU-FCN) can offer even better p…
Process capability index (PCI) is a commonly used statistic to measure ability of a process to operate within the given specifications or to produce products which meet the required quality specifications. PCI can be univariate or multivariate depending upon the number of process specifications or quality characteristi…
A new Weyl prior is proposed for Bayesian statistics, offering a more canonical choice for parameter α.
Study active learning of PTFs with derivative access.
In this paper the multivariate fractional trading ansatz of money management from Ralph Vince (Portfolio Management Formulas: Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1990) is discussed. In particular, we prove existence and uniqueness of an optimal f of the res…
Proposes mCS for multivariate selection with FDR control.
Over the past decade, multivariate time series classification has received great attention. We propose transforming the existing univariate time series classification models, the Long Short Term Memory Fully Convolutional Network (LSTM-FCN) and Attention LSTM-FCN (ALSTM-FCN), into a multivariate time series classificat…
We propose parametric copulas that capture serial dependence in stationary heteroskedastic time series. We develop our copula for first order Markov series, and extend it to higher orders and multivariate series. We derive the copula of a volatility proxy, based on which we propose new measures of volatility dependence…
The rebmix package provides R functions for random univariate and multivariate finite mixture model generation, estimation, clustering and classification. The paper is focused on multivariate normal mixture models with unrestricted variance-covariance matrices. The objective is to show how to generate datasets for a kn…
The multivariate version of the Mixed Tempered Stable is proposed. It is a generalization of the Normal Variance Mean Mixtures. Characteristics of this new distribution and its capacity in fitting tails and capturing dependence structure between components are investigated. We discuss a random number generating procedu…
Chronos models improve financial forecasting by integrating multivariate data.
Develops a method for multivariate time series prediction intervals.
SBAMDT uses adaptive soft splits to model complex decision boundaries.
Neural GARCH models financial time series with time-varying coefficients.
CATS enhances MTSF by generating ATS from OTS to improve forecasting accuracy.