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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for unfavorable scenarios

Algorithm reduces historical expected shortfall computation by focusing on worst-case scenarios.

problem Computing the historical expected shortfall efficiently and accurately.
method Multi-step algorithm using Monte Carlo simulations to identify and reduce the number of worst-case scenarios.
result Non-asymptotic bounds for the L p-error of the expected shortfall estimator are derived.

Study optimizes portfolio to minimize relative drawdown duration, penalizing unfavorable performance states.

problem Minimizing relative drawdown duration in portfolio optimization relative to a benchmark.
method Introduces a benchmark-relative drawdown-duration criterion penalizing unfavorable performance states. Uses a one-dimensional Markovian representation and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
result Derives explicit projection-based characterization of the optimal feedback control and identifies geometric settings for unique strong solutions.

In a continuous-time model with multiple assets described by càdlàg processes, this paper characterizes superhedging prices, absence of arbitrage, and utility maximizing strategies, under general frictions that make execution prices arbitrarily unfavorable for high trading intensity. Such frictions induce a duality bet…

2015-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

AI algorithms outperform traditional trading methods in stock markets.

problem Traditional trading methods struggle with risk management and edge over classical approaches.
method Used Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms (DDQN and PPO) to compare with Buy and Hold benchmark.
result DRL algorithms provide a substantial edge over classical approaches in terms of risk-adjusted returns.

The study examines the limitations of bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows in approximating certain distributions.

problem The expressivity of bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows in approximating specific target distributions.
method Characterization of expressivity through lower bounds on Total Variation distance and discussion of potential remedies.
result Several target distributions are difficult to approximate using bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows, and lower bounds on their approximation are provided.

New findings show that multitask learning can improve with more tasks, but not without additional information.

problem The challenge of improving performance in multitask learning settings.
method Analysis of classification scenarios with shared optimal classifiers and ranking of tasks.
result No adaptive algorithm exists that guarantees improved rates with large NN for fixed nn, but a simple rank-based procedure can achieve near optimal aggregations.

Mixture models are a fundamental tool in applied statistics and machine learning for treating data taken from multiple subpopulations. The current practice for estimating the parameters of such models relies on local search heuristics (e.g., the EM algorithm) which are prone to failure, and existing consistent methods …

2012-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

We study a game-theoretic variant of the maximum circulation problem. In a flow allocation game, we are given a directed flow network. Each node is a rational agent and can strategically allocate any incoming flow to the outgoing edges. Given the strategy choices of all agents, a maximal circulation that adheres to the…

2019-08-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Research shows that information asymmetry affects how quickly companies adjust their capital structure and expected returns.

problem The relationship between capital structure adjustment speed and expected returns is influenced by information asymmetry.
method A hybrid data regression model was used to test the hypotheses based on data from 120 companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange.
result Information asymmetry positively affects the relationship between capital structure adjustment speed and expected returns.

Fair k-means algorithm ensures equitable costs for different groups.

problem K-means clustering can result in biased outcomes for subgroups of data.
method Presented a fair k-means objective and algorithm (Fair-Lloyd) to choose cluster centers that provide equitable costs for different groups.
result Fair-Lloyd algorithm ensures all groups have equal costs in the output k-clustering, with negligible increase in running time.

Enhances Gaussian processes with spherical features for better scalability and flexibility.

problem Lack of representation learning in Gaussian processes compared to deep neural networks.
method Introduces spherical inter-domain features to improve GP approximation and scalability.
result The method alleviates limitations and improves scalability compared to alternative strategies.

Group-invariant neural networks improve approximation accuracy for symmetric functions.

problem Improving approximation accuracy for symmetric functions using neural networks.
method Investigates the generalization error of group-invariant neural networks within the Barron framework.
result Group invariance introduces a factor δ that can significantly improve approximation accuracy when it is small.

SAIL-RevKL improves SAIL's convergence by regularizing the objective function.

problem Convergence of self-improving online LLM alignment algorithms.
method Proposed SAIL-RevKL, a regularized objective function to improve optimization landscape.
result Proved SAIL-RevKL satisfies the Polyak-Lojasiewicz (PL) condition with near-linear sample complexity.

New method improves counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes.

problem Counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes with concentrated structure.
method Geometry-adaptive diffusion-guided smoothing estimators combining causal nuisance adjustment and local outcome geometry.
result Geometry-adaptive methods show steeper error decay in semi-synthetic experiments.

Optimal exit strategies of CPT gamblers in unfair gambles

problem Optimal exit strategies of gamblers with CPT preferences in games with strictly negative expected payoffs
method Formulating the problem as an optimal stopping problem on asymmetric random walks, applying geometric transformation, randomized strategies, and changing the decision variable
result The unfair problem in the infinite time horizon has finite values for a wide range of CPT parameter specifications

A new federated learning framework with sparsification and adaptive optimization for privacy and efficiency.

problem Lack of sufficient privacy protection in federated learning.
method Integrates random sparsification with gradient perturbation and acceleration techniques to enhance privacy and efficiency.
result Outperforms previous differentially-private federated learning approaches in privacy and efficiency.

Analog arrays are a promising upcoming hardware technology with the potential to drastically speed up deep learning. Their main advantage is that they compute matrix-vector products in constant time, irrespective of the size of the matrix. However, early convolution layers in ConvNets map very unfavorably onto analog a…

2018-07-03abs ↗pdf ↗

A new GCN variant tackles large eigengaps in dense graphs and hypergraphs.

problem Large eigengaps in dense graphs and hypergraphs hinder popular GCN architectures.
method Uses pseudoinverse of the Laplacian and low-rank approximation for efficient computation.
result Improves runtime and accuracy in various experiments with real-world datasets.

Study improves portfolio optimization by reducing estimation errors and turnover.

problem Inefficient out-of-sample performance of modern portfolio theory.
method Combines sparse model approaches with covariance estimation techniques and includes a turnover constraint.
result Shows it's possible to maintain low-risk profile while selecting a subset of assets and reducing turnover.

A new graph neural network framework captures long-range interactions efficiently.

problem Efficiently modeling long-range interactions in graph neural networks for PDEs.
method Proposes a multi-level graph neural network framework using multipole methods.
result Captures interaction at all ranges with only linear complexity, learning discretization-invariant solution operators.

This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustai…

2013-06-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Much recent work has concerned sparse approximations to speed up the Gaussian process regression from the unfavorable O(n3) scaling in computational time to O(nm2). Thus far, work has concentrated on models with one covariance function. However, in many practical situations additive models with multiple covariance func…

2012-06-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Research in deep learning for multi-speaker source separation has received a boost in the last years. However, most studies are restricted to mixtures of a specific number of speakers, called a specific scenario. While some works included experiments for different scenarios, research towards combining data of different…

2018-08-24abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper studies causal effects of multiple treatments in healthcare databases with rare outcomes.

problem Estimating causal effects of multiple treatments in healthcare databases with rare outcomes.
method The paper designs three sets of simulations and compares the operating characteristics of three types of methods: Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), regression adjustment on multivariate spline of generalized propensity scores (RAMS), and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with multinomial logistic regression or generalized boosted models.
result BART and RAMS provide lower bias and mean squared error compared to IPTW methods.

Investigates JM for reducing downside risk in market regimes.

problem Mitigating downside risk during market downturns.
method Statistical jump model for identifying market regimes, optimizing penalty for state transitions.
result JM-guided strategies outperform traditional models in reducing risk and enhancing returns.

This paper introduces Libra to analyze and optimize generalization in Federated Learning.

problem Inconsistent local optima in Federated Learning lead to poor generalization performance.
method Introduces Libra, a generalization dynamics analysis framework for algorithm-dependent excess risk minimization.
result Libra highlights the trade-offs between model stability and gradient norms in Federated Learning.

Proposes a new framework for balancing average- and worst-case performance in machine learning.

problem Robustness issues in machine learning, especially in safety-critical domains.
method Probabilistic robustness framework that balances average- and worst-case performance.
result Effective algorithm balances average- and worst-case performance with lower computational cost.

Least squares estimator fails to achieve optimal risk in bounded distributions, but non-linear predictors can.

problem Optimal risk in bounded distributions for constrained least squares.
method Comparison of least squares and non-linear predictors.
result Non-linear predictors can achieve optimal risk O(d/n)O(d/n) in bounded distributions.

Paper tackles sample-efficient offline RL, proposing data diversity and unified algorithms.

problem Sample-efficient learning from historical data for sequential decision-making.
method Proposes data diversity and unifies three offline RL algorithm classes: VS, RO, and PS.
result Comparable sample efficiency for VS, RO, and PS algorithms under standard assumptions.

The paper analyzes and proposes a new stopping criterion for recursive Bayesian classification.

problem Limitations of conventional stopping criteria in recursive Bayesian classification.
method Geometric interpretation of state posterior progression and analysis of conventional criteria.
result Proposes a new stopping criterion to overcome limitations of conventional methods.

Doubly-stochastic normalization improves robustness to heteroskedastic noise.

problem Robustness to heteroskedastic noise in affinity matrix construction.
method Doubly-stochastic normalization of the Gaussian kernel.
result Doubly-stochastic normalization converges to clean matrix with rate m1/2m^{-1/2} under heteroskedastic noise.