Study optimal portfolio selection with Recovery Average Value at Risk, showing better control over liabilities.
problem Optimizing portfolios with a new risk measure under known or uncertain distributions.
method Existence results for mean-risk optimal portfolios under different distributional assumptions.
result Portfolio selection under Recovery Average Value at Risk provides better control over liabilities.
Paper recovers uncertainty from dynamic valuation rules.
problem Recovering latent uncertainty from observable valuation rules.
method Developed procedures to identify and characterize uncertainty structures from valuation rules.
result Valuation rules contain sufficient information to identify and recover uncertainty structures.
New method recovers clean data from corrupted samples.
problem Recovering clean data from corrupted samples with uncertainty.
method Probabilistic Tomographic Auto-Encoder method that derives reduced entropy condition approximate inference.
result Superior performance in imputation and de-noising compared to existing methods.
It is a well known fact that recovery rates tend to go down when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. We demonstrate how the loss given default model with the default and recovery dependent via the latent systematic risk factor can be estimated using Bayesian inference methodology and Markov chain Mont…
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover losses during the adverse economic downturns; the so-called "downturn LGD" requ…
Compressed sensing techniques enable efficient acquisition and recovery of sparse, high-dimensional data signals via low-dimensional projections. In this work, we propose Uncertainty Autoencoders, a learning framework for unsupervised representation learning inspired by compressed sensing. We treat the low-dimensional …
New theorems show agents need specific internal structures to perform well under uncertainty.
problem How do agents need to be structured to perform well under uncertainty?
method Proved selection theorems showing strong task performance forces specific internal structures.
result Strong task performance forces world models, belief-like memory, and persistent regime-tracking variables.
The study proves necessary conditions for robust decision-making in uncertain environments.
problem Conditions for robust decision-making in uncertain environments.
method Quantitative selection theorems and binary betting decisions.
result World models, belief-like memory, and persistent variables are necessary for strong task performance.
Study models stock price recovery during COVID-19, distinguishing V and L-shape recoveries.
problem Analyzing stock price recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Developed a stock price model based on net-fund-flow and financial antifragility.
result Quality stocks with higher financial antifragility show V-shape recovery, while those with lower antifragility show L-shape recovery.
Entropy regularization improves sparse model discovery in federated learning.
problem Sparse model discovery in federated learning with limited data.
method Entropy regularization of gate distributions for probabilistic sparse model exploration.
result Entropy regularization leads to better sparse model recovery and performance.
New framework compresses and recovers scientific data efficiently.
problem Efficiently managing and recovering from large scientific datasets.
method Grounded in learning exponential families, preserves uncertainty and supports trade-offs.
result Preserves physical features and quantities of interest in compressed representations.
Paper proposes a new method for exact recovery in robust tensor principal component analysis.
problem Exact recovery of low-rank and sparse components in tensors.
method Proposes a new method based on tensor-tensor product and t-SVD to solve a convex optimization problem.
result Exact recovery achieved in a deterministic fashion without randomness assumptions.
Optimal design portfolios improve energy efficiency and reduce risk in uncertain reservoirs.
problem Uncertain reservoir conditions lead to unstable gas recovery and low resource efficiency.
method Developed optimal portfolios of well designs based on reservoir conditions and probabilities.
result Remarkable reduction in variation and substantial increase in energy efficiency achieved.
Study recovers investor preferences from portfolio data using synthetic data and robust optimization.
problem Recovering latent investor preferences from observed portfolio allocations under uncertainty.
method Inverse portfolio optimization framework integrating robust optimization and regret-based inference.
result Accurate recovery of transaction cost parameters and partial identifiability of ESG penalties under preference misspecification and market shocks.
Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters and data. Ensembling NNs provides an easily implementable, scalable method for …
New method reduces memory usage for Bayesian inverse problems on large grids.
problem Solving large-scale linear inverse problems with Gaussian process priors.
method Implicit representation of posterior covariance matrices, sequential disintegrations of Gaussian measures.
result Significant reduction in uncertainty for high-density regions estimation.
We study an optimal investment problem under default risk where related information such as loss or recovery at default is considered as an exogenous random mark added at default time. Two types of agents who have different levels of information are considered. We first make precise the insider's information flow by us…
Gradient-free method reduces dimensionality without gradients for expensive models.
problem Reducing high-dimensional input spaces for expensive models without gradient information.
method Fully Bayesian, gradient-free approach using Gaussian processes.
result Improves active subspace recovery and probabilistic prediction accuracy with limited data.
New method recovers signals from noisy indirect data, even when noise is uncertain.
problem Recovering signals from indirect observations with uncertain noise.
method Polyhedral estimates, incorporating convex optimization.
result Presumably good estimates can be constructed for ellitope signal sets.
Compressed sensing (CS) shows that a signal having a sparse or compressible representation can be recovered from a small set of linear measurements. In classical CS theory, the sampling matrix and representation matrix are assumed to be known exactly in advance. However, uncertainties exist due to sampling distortion, …
Method learns Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps on graphs using Gaussian processes.
problem Coupling multiphysics simulations on graphs with conservation constraints.
method Gaussian processes combined with discrete exterior calculus and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Data-driven predictions with uncertainty quantification on entire graph.
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.
MDNs offer a data-efficient alternative to diffusion and flow models for multimodal scientific learning.
problem Capturing multimodal conditional uncertainty in scientific inverse problems.
method Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) as explicit parametric density estimators.
result MDNs achieve superior generalization, interpretability, and sample efficiency in scientific tasks.
This work advances collaborative decision making by combining human and AI strengths in uncertainty quantification.
problem Current AI lacks robust decision-making capabilities under uncertainty, especially in high-stakes contexts.
method Introduces Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification (HACUQ) framework, formalizing AI-human collaboration and developing calibration algorithms.
result Optimal collaborative prediction sets follow a two-threshold structure, and online adaptation algorithms can adapt to evolving human behavior.
New privacy-preserving method for conformal prediction without splitting data.
problem Privacy and uncertainty quantification in data-driven decision making.
method Proposes a full-data privacy-preserving conformal prediction framework using differential privacy.
result Demonstrates improved prediction sets compared to split-based private baselines.
We derive an arbitrage free relationship between recovery swap rates, digital default swap spreads and conventional CDS spreads, and argue that the fair forward recovery rate used in recovery swaps must contain a convexity premium over the expected recovery value.
In sensing applications, sensors cannot always measure the latent quantity of interest at the required resolution, sometimes they can only acquire a blurred version of it due the sensor's transfer function. To recover latent signals when only noisy mixed measurements of the signal are available, we propose the Gaussian…
Method uses Seq2Seq learning to automatically generate recovery commands for ICT systems.
problem Manual decision-making for recovery commands is time-consuming and error-prone.
method Seq2Seq neural network model trained on past logs and commands.
result The model can estimate accurate recovery commands from new failures.
VaSST uses soft symbolic trees for probabilistic symbolic regression.
problem Efficiently recover symbolic expressions from noisy data.
method Variational inference with soft symbolic trees.
result Superior performance in structural recovery and predictive accuracy.
A new framework for PPLS combines noise estimation, optimization, and calibration.
problem Probabilistic PLS models need interpretable latent factors and calibrated uncertainty.
method End-to-end pipeline combining noise estimation, constrained optimization, and prediction calibration.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and native calibrated uncertainty across benchmarks.
A new model explains U- and Swoosh-shaped stock price recovery during the COVID-19.
problem Modeling stock price recovery during the COVID-19 with V- and L-shaped recovery.
method Introducing a sentiment variable θ to quantify investor sentiment and simulate U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery. result The model explains U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery of sectoral indices with positive sentiment.
This paper improves support recovery in universal one-bit compressed sensing.
problem Support recovery in one-bit compressed sensing for sparse signals.
method Proposes approximate support recovery and superset recovery algorithms with polynomial-time complexity.
result Achieves improved support recovery with fewer measurements compared to existing methods.
This work provides a guaranteed tensor recovery method by combining low-rankness and smoothness priors.
problem Guaranteed tensor recovery with theoretical guarantees for low-rank and smoothness priors.
method Developed a new regularization term that combines low-rankness and smoothness priors, proving exact recovery guarantees.
result Rigorously proved exact recovery guarantees for tensor completion and tensor robust principal component analysis.
We discuss a general notion of "sparsity structure" and associated recoveries of a sparse signal from its linear image of reduced dimension possibly corrupted with noise. Our approach allows for unified treatment of (a) the "usual sparsity" and "usual ℓ1 recovery," (b) block-sparsity with possibly overlapping blo…
We consider the problem of signal recovery on graphs as graphs model data with complex structure as signals on a graph. Graph signal recovery implies recovery of one or multiple smooth graph signals from noisy, corrupted, or incomplete measurements. We propose a graph signal model and formulate signal recovery as a cor…
IRKSN algorithm achieves sparse recovery with wider applicability conditions.
problem Sparse recovery challenges due to NP-hard nature and restrictive conditions.
method IRKSN algorithm based on k-support norm regularizer. result Achieves sparse recovery with explicit constants and standard linear rate.
Bayesian method learns graph structures from Gaussian data efficiently.
problem Scalability issue in Bayesian Gaussian graphical model inference.
method Marginal pseudo-likelihood, birth-death and reversible jump MCMC algorithms.
result Efficient graph structure learning for large graphs with over 1,000 nodes.
Higher-order tensors can represent scores in a rating system, frames in a video, and images of the same subject. In practice, the measurements are often highly quantized due to the sampling strategies or the quality of devices. Existing works on tensor recovery have focused on data losses and random noises. Only a few …
New framework models time-uncertain point processes for better event prediction.
problem Uncertainty in event times in point processes.
method Formulated and discretized continuous-time Hawkes processes with time grid, enabling optimization methods for inference.
result Parameter recovery with O(1/k) convergence rate using gradient descent and VI. In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between recovery rates and default probabilities is lost and the tails of the loss distri…
The paper improves conditions for unique recovery in homomorphic sensing of subspaces.
problem Unique recovery of points in a linear subspace from their images under linear maps.
method Tighter and simpler conditions for unique recovery in single and subspace arrangement cases, extending to noise stability.
result Conditions for unique recovery in homomorphic sensing are improved and unified.
HSNLD solves robust Hankel recovery efficiently and robustly.
problem Robust Hankel recovery of sparse outliers and missing entries.
method Hankel Structured Newton-Like Descent (HSNLD) algorithm.
result HSNLD achieves linear convergence independent of the condition number.
Constructing an efficient parameterization of a large, noisy data set of points lying close to a smooth manifold in high dimension remains a fundamental problem. One approach consists in recovering a local parameterization using the local tangent plane. Principal component analysis (PCA) is often the tool of choice, as…
HierGP improves emulator efficiency for sparse, structured data.
problem Sparse, structured data in expensive simulations.
method Hierarchical shrinkage GP framework with cumulative shrinkage priors.
result HierGP identifies structured sparse features from limited data.
Dual random fields improve mineral potential predictions.
problem Limited understanding of multi-dimensional causalities and dependencies.
method Introduces dual random fields to pool response functions across the domain.
result Spatial inference and uncertainty assessment of response models and predictions.
New method improves dictionary recovery from over-realized models.
problem Theoretical guarantees for model recovery in dictionary learning are limited.
method Search over larger over-realized models to facilitate dictionary recovery.
result Model recovery can be upper-bounded by empirical risk and generalization gap.
Unified framework for pattern recovery in penalized and thresholded estimation.
problem Pattern recovery in penalized and thresholded estimation methods.
method Defining a novel pattern notion based on subdifferentials, introducing accessibility and noiseless recovery conditions.
result Unified and extended conditions for pattern recovery in a broad class of penalized estimators.
Paper explores exact recovery of communities in weighted graphs using Gaussian and exponential distributions.
problem Exact recovery of communities in weighted graphs with Gaussian and exponential distributions.
method Introduces a new semi-metric to describe conditions for exact recovery and analyzes conditions for both complete and incomplete graphs.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for exact recovery are asymptotically tight and applicable to both complete and incomplete graphs.