A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Generalized belief propagation converges to optimal solutions on graphs with motifs.
Study risk sharing with Lambda VaR under diverse beliefs.
Belief propagation recovers backpropagation results.
New framework analyzes belief evolution in social networks.
We consider the problem of imitation learning from expert demonstrations in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Belief representations, which characterize the distribution over the latent states in a POMDP, have been modeled using recurrent neural networks and probabilistic latent variable models, …
Improved error correction using neural networks and belief propagation.
NBF combines deep learning with classical filtering for better belief tracking.
This thesis investigates belief propagation's performance in graphical models with loops.
FORBES learns flexible belief states for POMDPs using normalizing flows.
This work explores a social learning problem with agents having nonidentical noise variances and mismatched beliefs. We consider an -agent binary hypothesis test in which each agent sequentially makes a decision based not only on a private observation, but also on preceding agents' decisions. In addition, the agents…
Belief Propagation algorithms are instruments used broadly to solve graphical model optimization and statistical inference problems. In the general case of a loopy Graphical Model, Belief Propagation is a heuristic which is quite successful in practice, even though its empirical success, typically, lacks theoretical gu…
Model captures decision-making under bounded rationality with prior beliefs and market feedback.
By elaborating on the notion of linear belief functions (Dempster 1990; Liu 1996), we propose an elementary approach to knowledge representation for expert systems using linear belief functions. We show how to use basic matrices to represent market information and financial knowledge, including complete ignorance, stat…
This paper optimizes reinsurance contracts with belief differences between insurer and reinsurer.
Deep belief networks are a powerful way to model complex probability distributions. However, learning the structure of a belief network, particularly one with hidden units, is difficult. The Indian buffet process has been used as a nonparametric Bayesian prior on the directed structure of a belief network with a single…
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find little evidence for converge…
New algorithm reduces communication in distributed learning by sharing compressed beliefs.
New -BP algorithm improves belief propagation for graphs with loops.
New group testing method uses Belief Propagation for accurate screening.
Belief propagation (BP) can do exact inference in loop-free graphs, but its performance could be poor in graphs with loops, and the understanding of its solution is limited. This work gives an interpretable belief propagation rule that is actually minimization of a localized -divergence. We term this algorithm as $α…
The paper explains stock market predictability through a model of heterogeneous beliefs.
A number of problems in statistical physics and computer science can be expressed as the computation of marginal probabilities over a Markov random field. Belief propagation, an iterative message-passing algorithm, computes exactly such marginals when the underlying graph is a tree. But it has gained its popularity as …
Study shows price bubbles can exist even with heterogeneous beliefs.
A method for eliciting expert beliefs using preferential questions and normalizing flows.
Develops a framework for quantifying agentic AI model risk using LLM-inferred Bayesian state filters.
This paper presents a general framework for studying diverse beliefs in dynamic economies. Within this general framework, the characterization of a central-planner general equilbrium turns out to be very easy to derive, and leads to a range of interesting applications. We show how for an economy with log investors hold…
Recurrent networks learn beliefs from history in partially observable environments.
Unsupervised representation learning has succeeded with excellent results in many applications. It is an especially powerful tool to learn a good representation of environments with partial or noisy observations. In partially observable domains it is important for the representation to encode a belief state, a sufficie…
Deep belief networks can approximate any multivariate density with binary hidden units.
POLAR learns efficient data acquisition policies using pretrained belief representations.
SOLBP extends efficient inference to uncertain Bayesian networks.
We introduce a formal language IE that is a variant of the language PAL developed in [van Benthem 2011] by adding a belief operator and a common belief operator,specializing to stochastic analysis. A constant symbol in the language denotes a stochastic process so that we can represent several financial events as formul…
Paper introduces a new framework to improve sample efficiency in POMDPs learning.
Information theory provides a mathematical foundation to measure uncertainty in belief. Belief is represented by a probability distribution that captures our understanding of an outcome's plausibility. Information measures based on Shannon's concept of entropy include realization information, Kullback-Leibler divergenc…
Two EP frameworks ensure integrable beliefs in Bayesian estimation problems.
GEnBP combines EnKF and GaBP for efficient high-dimensional inference.
Unified kernel for prediction markets reduces belief variance forecast error.
This paper introduces a new probabilistic model for online learning which dynamically incorporates information from stochastic gradients of an arbitrary loss function. Similar to probabilistic filtering, the model maintains a Gaussian belief over the optimal weight parameters. Unlike traditional Bayesian updates, the m…
This paper provides a tutorial on Boltzmann Machines and Deep Belief Networks.
This paper improves parallel belief propagation for scalable machine learning.
We propose a generic, Bayesian, information geometric approach to the exploration--exploitation trade-off in multi-armed bandit problems. Our approach, BelMan, uniformly supports pure exploration, exploration--exploitation, and two-phase bandit problems. The knowledge on bandit arms and their reward distributions is su…
Bayes factors and relative belief ratios are compared as measures of statistical evidence.
This work investigates the case of a network of agents that attempt to learn some unknown state of the world amongst the finitely many possibilities. At each time step, agents all receive random, independently distributed private signals whose distributions are dependent on the unknown state of the world. However, it m…
A significant theoretical advantage of search-and-score methods for learning Bayesian Networks is that they can accept informative prior beliefs for each possible network, thus complementing the data. In this paper, a method is presented for assigning priors based on beliefs on the presence or absence of certain paths …
This study models FOMC policy decisions using debate-based LLMs.
ColaBO accelerates optimization with user beliefs.
Cooperative communication plays a central role in theories of human cognition, language, development, culture, and human-robot interaction. Prior models of cooperative communication are algorithmic in nature and do not shed light on why cooperation may yield effective belief transmission and what limitations may arise …
When banks choose similar investment strategies the financial system becomes vulnerable to common shocks. We model a simple financial system in which banks decide about their investment strategy based on a private belief about the state of the world and a social belief formed from observing the actions of peers. Observ…