Tests for classifier independence without ground truth labels.
problem Validation of classifier independence without ground truth labels.
method Exact solution for independent binary classifiers using algebraic geometry.
result Self-consistent test for classifier independence without ground truth labels.
Estimates classifier errors without ground truth using algebraic geometry.
problem Lack of ground truth in real-world production systems.
method Non-parametric estimation using algebraic geometry to solve the self-assessment problem.
result Accuracy estimators are better than one part in a hundred.
This paper tackles sample elicitation for learning systems, introducing a method to incentivize truthful samples.
problem Eliciting credible training samples for complex distributions from humans is challenging.
method Introduces a deep learning aided method to incentivize truthful samples from self-interested and rational agents.
result Achieves approximate incentive compatibility in eliciting truthful samples via accurate estimation of f-divergence function. A new perfectly truthful calibration measure improves prediction reliability.
problem Improving the reliability of predictions by ensuring they are conditionally unbiased.
method Designing a simple, perfectly truthful calibration measure called ATB.
result ATB is the first perfectly truthful calibration measure in the batch setting.
New method improves efficiency of non-convex matrix reconstruction.
problem Reconstructing a low-rank matrix from few linear measurements.
method Factorized gradient descent with spectral initialization.
result Non-convex approaches can match the sample complexity of convex methods.
New method accounts for uncertainty in medical AI evaluations.
problem Uncertainty in ground truth affects AI model performance estimates.
method Statistical aggregation approach to infer probabilities of medical conditions.
result Performance estimates are significantly lower when uncertainty is accounted for.
TOO optimizes stochastic epidemiological models by finding both parameter settings and random seeds.
problem Calibrating stochastic epidemiological models to match empirical observations.
method Gaussian process surrogates and Thompson sampling for optimization.
result Produces actual trajectories consistent with ground truth.
New method selects best HTE estimator without ground-truth treatment effects.
problem Selecting best HTE estimator from multiple candidates.
method Cross-fitted, exponentially weighted test statistic with two-way sample splitting.
result Empirically, reliable error control and reduced false selections.
Pairwise Label Smoothing improves deep model generalization by reducing overconfidence.
problem Improving deep model generalization through regularization.
method PLS smooths labels for pairs of samples, learning distribution mass during training.
result PLS significantly outperforms LS and baseline models, reducing up to 30% classification error.
Normalizing flows model atomic solids without needing ground-truth samples.
problem Modeling atomic solids without ground-truth samples.
method Normalizing flows to transform a base distribution into the target solid.
result Excellent agreement between model estimates and literature values for Helmholtz free energy.
This paper establishes the consistency of a family of graph-cut-based algorithms for clustering of data clouds. We consider point clouds obtained as samples of a ground-truth measure. We investigate approaches to clustering based on minimizing objective functionals defined on proximity graphs of the given sample. Our f…
New method falsifies causal discovery results without ground truth.
problem Evaluation of causal discovery algorithms without ground truth data.
method Detects incompatibilities between causal graphs learned on different subsets of variables.
result Detection of incompatibilities can falsify wrongly inferred causal relations.
SAMPLR optimizes for ground truth in aleatoric parameters to avoid curriculum-induced covariate shift.
problem Curriculum learning shifts training distribution, leading to suboptimal policies in aleatoric settings.
method SAMPLR optimizes ground-truth utility function, avoiding curriculum-induced covariate shift.
result SAMPLR preserves optimality under ground-truth distribution, promoting robustness across various environments.
Condorcet's Jury Theorem has been invoked for ensemble classifiers to indicate that the combination of many classifiers can have better predictive performance than a single classifier. Such a theoretical underpinning is unknown for consensus clustering. This article extends Condorcet's Jury Theorem to the mean partitio…
This paper analyzes the difficulty of unsupervised domain adaptation using information theory.
problem The challenge of unsupervised domain adaptation under covariate shift.
method Formulates the problem using a distribution π in the ground-truth triples (p, q, f), defines optimal learner performance, and introduces PTLU for quantifying difficulty.
result Characterizes the optimal learner and introduces PTLU as a measure of UDA difficulty.
Neural Machine Translation (NMT) generates target words sequentially in the way of predicting the next word conditioned on the context words. At training time, it predicts with the ground truth words as context while at inference it has to generate the entire sequence from scratch. This discrepancy of the fed context l…
In this paper, we consider regression problems with one-hidden-layer neural networks (1NNs). We distill some properties of activation functions that lead to local strong convexity in the neighborhood of the ground-truth parameters for the 1NN squared-loss objective. Most popular nonlinear activation function…
We give a new algorithm for learning a two-layer neural network under a general class of input distributions. Assuming there is a ground-truth two-layer network y=Aσ(Wx)+ξ, where A,W are weight matrices, ξ represents noise, and the number of neurons in the hidden layer is no larger than the input or outp…
Algorithm learns two-layer residual units using ReLU activations from samples.
problem Learning two-layer residual units from samples.
method Design layer-wise objectives as functionals, formulate ERM as QP, solve using LP, prove statistical consistency.
result Strong statistical consistency and robustness of the algorithm.
This paper establishes the consistency of spectral approaches to data clustering. We consider clustering of point clouds obtained as samples of a ground-truth measure. A graph representing the point cloud is obtained by assigning weights to edges based on the distance between the points they connect. We investigate the…
New truthful calibration errors improve model ranking in multiclass prediction.
problem Non-truthful calibration errors can mislead model comparisons.
method Introduced perfectly truthful calibration errors for multiclass predictions.
result Truthful calibration errors preserve decision-theoretic dominance and stabilize model rankings.
This paper recovers smooth functions from noisy modulo samples using a three-stage strategy.
problem Recovering Hölder smooth functions from noisy modulo samples.
method Three-stage strategy: denoising with local polynomial estimators, unwrapping, and spline-based quasi-interpolant.
result Uniform error rates for Hölder class functions with high probability.
Trajectory or behavior prediction of traffic agents is an important component of autonomous driving and robot planning in general. It can be framed as a probabilistic future sequence generation problem and recent literature has studied the applicability of generative models in this context. The variety or Minimum over …
New calibration measure SSCE ensures truthful prediction, unlike existing measures.
problem Ensuring truthful calibration measures in sequential prediction.
method Introduced a new calibration measure, Subsampled Smooth Calibration Error (SSCE).
result SSCE ensures truthful prediction, while existing measures are far from truthful.
DBLE improves confidence calibration of DNNs by learning distances in representation space.
problem Poor confidence calibration of deep neural networks (DNNs).
method DBLE trains a confidence model jointly with the classification model, using distances in the representation space.
result DBLE outperforms alternative single-model confidence calibration approaches and ensemble methods.
The paper analyzes GNNs with one hidden layer, proving their generalizability and convergence rate.
problem Theoretical guarantee on generalizability of GNNs with one hidden layer.
method Tensor initialization and accelerated gradient descent.
result The proposed learning algorithm converges to the ground-truth GNN model for regression and to a model close to the ground-truth for binary classification.
We study model recovery for data classification, where the training labels are generated from a one-hidden-layer neural network with sigmoid activations, also known as a single-layer feedforward network, and the goal is to recover the weights of the neural network. We consider two network models, the fully-connected ne…
New method improves model calibration by adjusting confidence based on prediction correctness.
problem Improving model confidence alignment with true class probabilities.
method Post-hoc calibration objective using transformed samples for training.
result Competitive calibration performance on in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.
Improved method for unbiased causal discovery in presence of unobserved confounding.
problem Unbiased data synthesis for causal discovery algorithms in the presence of unobserved confounding.
method Explicit block-hierarchical ancestral sampling to address limitations of implicit parameterization.
result Our approach fully covers the space of causal models, including those generated by implicit parameterization.
Logistic regression can handle noisy labels effectively when labels are imperfectly assigned by multiple experts.
problem Label noise in supervised classification due to manual labelling by multiple experts.
method Using approximate posterior probabilities of class membership from multiple experts to train logistic regression models.
result Logistic regression can be robust to label noise when classification difficulty is the only source of errors.
FCDD explains deep anomaly detection by mapping anomalies away and providing heatmap explanations.
problem Deep one-class classification's non-linear transformation makes it hard to interpret.
method FCDD learns a mapping that concentrates nominal samples, maps anomalies away, and provides heatmap explanations.
result FCDD sets a new state of the art in unsupervised anomaly detection on MVTec-AD.
Paper proposes metrics to evaluate AI explanations without ground truth.
problem Challenges in evaluating neural network explanations without ground truth.
method Designs four metrics to evaluate explanation results.
result New insights into neural network interpretation methods.
Synthetic Petri Dish predicts neural architecture performance faster.
problem Expensive NAS evaluation process with ground-truth data.
method Instantiates motifs in small networks, evaluates with few synthetic samples.
result Significantly higher accuracy in predicting motif performance.
VB-Score evaluates AI systems without ground truth, revealing robustness.
problem Evaluating AI systems without ground truth labels, especially for entity-centric tasks.
method VB-Score uses variance-bounded evaluation, constraint relaxation, and Monte Carlo sampling.
result VB-Score reveals robustness differences not seen by conventional frameworks.
A group of transition probability functions form a Shannon's channel whereas a group of truth functions form a semantic channel. Label learning is to let semantic channels match Shannon's channels and label selection is to let Shannon's channels match semantic channels. The Channel Matching (CM) algorithm is provided f…
Obtaining enough labeled data to robustly train complex discriminative models is a major bottleneck in the machine learning pipeline. A popular solution is combining multiple sources of weak supervision using generative models. The structure of these models affects training label quality, but is difficult to learn with…
Recent work has demonstrated the effectiveness of gradient descent for directly recovering the factors of low-rank matrices from random linear measurements in a globally convergent manner when initialized properly. However, the performance of existing algorithms is highly sensitive in the presence of outliers that may …
Gradient EM converges globally for over-parameterized Gaussian mixtures.
problem Recovering ground truth Gaussian mixtures with over-parameterized models.
method Gradient EM with over-parameterization, using Hermite polynomials and tensor decomposition.
result Gradient EM globally converges to ground truth with n=Ω(mlogm) over-parameterization. Universally valid ground truth is almost impossible to obtain or would come at a very high cost. For supervised learning without universally valid ground truth, a recommended approach is applying crowdsourcing: Gathering a large data set annotated by multiple individuals of varying possibly expertise levels and inferri…
Paper proposes a method to recover accurate labels from partially valid data in multi-label learning.
problem Tackles noisy supervision in multi-label learning with partially valid labels.
method Develops a two-stage method that estimates label enrichment and ground-truth confidences.
result Demonstrates improved performance over state-of-the-art PML methods.
A group of transition probability functions form a Shannon's channel whereas a group of truth functions form a semantic channel. By the third kind of Bayes' theorem, we can directly convert a Shannon's channel into an optimized semantic channel. When a sample is not big enough, we can use a truth function with paramete…
This paper is the first work to propose a network to predict a structured uncertainty distribution for a synthesized image. Previous approaches have been mostly limited to predicting diagonal covariance matrices. Our novel model learns to predict a full Gaussian covariance matrix for each reconstruction, which permits …
We consider the problem of learning a one-hidden-layer neural network: we assume the input x∈Rd is from Gaussian distribution and the label y=a⊤σ(Bx)+ξ, where a is a nonnegative vector in Rm with m≤d, B∈Rm×d is a full-rank weight matrix, and ξ is a n…
A new score measures data reliability without ground truth.
problem Assessing reliability of datasets without access to ground truth.
method Define ground-truth-based orderings and propose Gram determinant score.
result Gram determinant score effectively captures data quality across diverse observation processes.
Bayesian meta learning improves uncertainty quantification in regression.
problem Trusting uncertainty quantification in Bayesian regression.
method Trust-Bayes framework for Bayesian meta learning, optimizing for trustworthy uncertainty quantification.
result Lower bounds and sample complexity for trustworthy uncertainty quantification are characterized.
In this article, we investigate large sample properties of model selection procedures in a general Bayesian framework when a closed form expression of the marginal likelihood function is not available or a local asymptotic quadratic approximation of the log-likelihood function does not exist. Under appropriate identifi…
Algorithm identifies best arm with biased proxy and selective ground truth audits.
problem Fixed-confidence best-arm identification with biased proxy and selective ground truth.
method Propensity-weighted estimator and adaptive auditing algorithm.
result Plug-in Neyman rule achieves near-oracle audit efficiency.
A directed acyclic graph (DAG) is the most common graphical model for representing causal relationships among a set of variables. When restricted to using only observational data, the structure of the ground truth DAG is identifiable only up to Markov equivalence, based on conditional independence relations among the v…