A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified framework for tractable inference scenarios in machine learning models.
PNCs balance tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic modeling.
Unified tractability conditions for various compositional inference queries.
Hybrid model combines continuous and tractable probabilistic models.
New tractable density models from squaring neural networks.
We consider the problem of transforming samples from one continuous source distribution into samples from another target distribution. We demonstrate with optimal transport theory that when the source distribution can be easily sampled from and the target distribution is log-concave, this can be tractably solved with c…
Fixed-parameter tractability of private synthetic data generation
Probabilistic models learned as density estimators can be exploited in representation learning beside being toolboxes used to answer inference queries only. However, how to extract useful representations highly depends on the particular model involved. We argue that tractable inference, i.e. inference that can be compu…
We present a novel tractable generative model that extends Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and significantly boosts their power. We call it Sum-Product-Quotient Networks (SPQNs), whose core concept is to incorporate conditional distributions into the model by direct computation using quotient nodes, e.g. $P(A|B) = \frac{P(…
Many polynomial invariants of knots and links, including the Jones and HOMFLY-PT polynomials, are widely used in practice but #P-hard to compute. It was shown by Makowsky in 2001 that computing the Jones polynomial is fixed-parameter tractable in the treewidth of the link diagram, but the parameterised complexity of th…
TRUST improves structure learning with tractable uncertainty.
Despite widespread interest and practical use, the theoretical properties of random forests are still not well understood. In this paper we contribute to this understanding in two ways. We present a new theoretically tractable variant of random regression forests and prove that our algorithm is consistent. We also prov…
We call an Ising model tractable when it is possible to compute its partition function value (statistical inference) in polynomial time. The tractability also implies an ability to sample configurations of this model in polynomial time. The notion of tractability extends the basic case of planar zero-field Ising models…
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
Normalizing flows can now estimate densities on unknown manifolds.
New model generates data on constrained sets without losing tractability.
New bandit algorithm works without realizability assumption.
Casting neural networks in generative frameworks is a highly sought-after endeavor these days. Contemporary methods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks, capture some of the generative capabilities, but not all. In particular, they lack the ability of tractable marginalization, and thus are not suitable for many ta…
Develops a computationally tractable differentially private mean estimator called the balloon mean.
Develops a computationally tractable high-dimensional differential privacy estimator.
New algorithm speeds up knot polynomial calculations.
Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick to inference in a parametric Bayesian model. For example, Gaussian process regre…
Study shows tractable generalization in RL is impossible but possible with Strong Proximity.
We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are analytically tractable under defaultable forward measures. This leads to explicit formul…
TRAK traces model predictions to training data efficiently.
In this article we propose a Weighted Stochastic Mesh (WSM) Algorithm for approximating the value of a discrete and continuous time optimal stopping problem. We prove that in the discrete case the WSM algorithm leads to semi-tractability of the corresponding optimal problems in the sense that its complexity is bounded …
A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and…
In this paper we present decomposable priors, a family of priors over structure and parameters of tree belief nets for which Bayesian learning with complete observations is tractable, in the sense that the posterior is also decomposable and can be completely determined analytically in polynomial time. This follows from…
In this paper we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on some dynamics parameters, and we show how to calibrate the model using a chosen number of Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes. We essentially show how to use structural models with a calibration capability that …
Computing expected predictions of discriminative models is a fundamental task in machine learning that appears in many interesting applications such as fairness, handling missing values, and data analysis. Unfortunately, computing expectations of a discriminative model with respect to a probability distribution defined…
A non-Euclidean generalization of conditional expectation is introduced and characterized as the minimizer of expected intrinsic squared-distance from a manifold-valued target. The computational tractable formulation expresses the non-convex optimization problem as transformations of Euclidean conditional expectation. …
High-risk domains require reliable confidence estimates from predictive models. Deep latent variable models provide these, but suffer from the rigid variational distributions used for tractable inference, which err on the side of overconfidence. We propose Stochastic Quantized Activation Distributions (SQUAD), which im…
This article discuss a class of tractable model in the form of polynomial type.
We discuss the class of "Quadratic Normal Volatility" models, which have drawn much attention in the financial industry due to their analytic tractability and flexibility. We characterize these models as the ones that can be obtained from stopped Brownian motion by a simple transformation and a change of measure that o…
Despite the fundamental nature of the inhomogeneous Poisson process in the theory and application of stochastic processes, and its attractive generalizations (e.g. Cox process), few tractable nonparametric modeling approaches of intensity functions exist, especially when observed points lie in a high-dimensional space.…
To convert standard Brownian motion into a positive process, Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is widely used. We generalize this positive process by introducing an asymmetry parameter which describes the instantaneous volatility whenever the process reaches a new low. For our new process, …
AST provides a method to validate safe autonomy without unsafe simplifications.
Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) have been widely applied for learning compact, low-dimensional latent representations of high-dimensional data. When the correlation structure among data points is available, previous work proposed Correlated Variational Auto-Encoders (CVAEs), which employ a structured mixture model as …
New algorithm achieves optimal regret in average reward MDPs without prior bias information.
The analytical tractability of affine (short rate) models, such as the Vasicek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models, has made them a popular choice for modelling the dynamics of interest rates. However, in order to account properly for the dynamics of real data, these models need to exhibit time-dependent or even stochast…
To enumerate 3-manifold triangulations with a given property, one typically begins with a set of potential face pairing graphs (also known as dual 1-skeletons), and then attempts to flesh each graph out into full triangulations using an exponential-time enumeration. However, asymptotically most graphs do not result in …
Simplifies inference for simulators with or without tractable likelihoods.
New characterization limits sampling with inexact scores.
Survey of tractable nonconvex problems using symmetry.
Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approx…
DBKs enable scalable GPs with tractable inference for large datasets.
XSPNs combine SPNs and MEVMs for efficient inference in data with repeated parts.
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.