A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper addresses frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling in stochastic linear bandits.
problem The frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling (LinTS) is worse than its Bayesian counterpart.
method The paper proves the fundamental nature of the frequentist regret bound for LinTS and proposes a data-driven version of LinTS to achieve minimax optimal frequentist regret.
result The frequentist regret bound for LinTS is O(ddT), which is the best possible under certain conditions.
A new algorithm reduces frequentist regret in multi-agent bandit problems with sparse hypergraphs.
problem Deriving a frequentist regret bound for Thompson sampling in multi-agent settings with sparse hypergraphs.
method Proposed ε-exploring Multi-Agent Thompson Sampling (ε-MATS) algorithm that combines exploration and exploitation strategies.
result Achieves a worst-case frequentist regret bound sublinear in time horizon and local arm size, optimal up to constants and logarithms for sparse hypergraphs.
The study compares Bayesian and frequentist approaches in deep learning.
problem Comparing Bayesian and frequentist inference in deep learning.
method Conducts a comparative analysis of point and posterior estimators across various settings.
result Amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though posterior inference remains competitive in some low-dimensional problems.
A key challenge for modern Bayesian statistics is how to perform scalable inference of posterior distributions. To address this challenge, variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. VB methods tend to be faster while achieving comparabl…
DBPA assesses LLM perturbations using frequentist hypothesis testing.
problem Quantifying input perturbation impacts on LLM outputs.
method DBPA reformulates perturbation analysis as frequentist hypothesis testing, using Monte Carlo sampling for empirical null and alternative distributions.
result DBPA provides interpretable p-values and scalar effect sizes for LLM perturbations.
We consider the exploration-exploitation dilemma in finite-horizon reinforcement learning (RL). When the state space is large or continuous, traditional tabular approaches are unfeasible and some form of function approximation is mandatory. In this paper, we introduce an optimistically-initialized variant of the popula…
We have recently proposed a new information-based approach to model selection, the Frequentist Information Criterion (FIC), that reconciles information-based and frequentist inference. The purpose of this current paper is to provide a simple example of the application of this criterion and a demonstration of the natura…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and simultaneous Bayesian credible sets in GP regression. As an intermediate result, we develop…
Bayesian online learning algorithm for one-pass data, achieving frequentist validity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Theoretical limitations in Bayesian online learning, especially in the one-pass setting.
method Proposed a new Bayesian online learning algorithm with a warm-start phase for the one-pass regime, establishing convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification.
result The sequentially updated posterior attains optimal convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification without diverging mini-batch sample sizes.
We present two algorithms for Bayesian optimization in the batch feedback setting, based on Gaussian process upper confidence bound and Thompson sampling approaches, along with frequentist regret guarantees and numerical results.
The paper analyzes uncertainty quantification in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
problem Analyzing uncertainty in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
method Theoretical guarantees and limitations for pointwise credible sets are derived for a rescaled Brownian motion prior with a sparse variational Gaussian process method.
result Theoretical characterization of asymptotic frequentist coverage for credible sets, distinguishing conservative and overconfident cases.
This paper is about index policies for minimizing (frequentist) regret in a stochastic multi-armed bandit model, inspired by a Bayesian view on the problem. Our main contribution is to prove that the Bayes-UCB algorithm, which relies on quantiles of posterior distributions, is asymptotically optimal when the reward dis…
This paper studies uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting models.
method Analysis of UQ methods from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, including statistical decision theory.
result Different UQ methods have different strengths and weaknesses, with Bayesian methods being more robust in mean prediction and frequentist methods providing more extensive coverage.
This paper investigates Frequentist consistency properties of the posterior distributions constructed via Generalized Variational Inference (GVI). A number of generic and novel strategies are given for proving consistency, relying on the theory of Γ-convergence. Specifically, this paper shows that under minimal regul…