A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Note on instabilities in super-time-stepping methods for Heston model.
Deep learning accelerates Monte Carlo SDE simulations with large time steps.
ISALT uses inference to simulate SDEs with large time-steps, improving efficiency.
We consider the exploration/exploitation problem in reinforcement learning. For exploitation, it is well known that the Bellman equation connects the value at any time-step to the expected value at subsequent time-steps. In this paper we consider a similar \textit{uncertainty} Bellman equation (UBE), which connects the…
A new ML method predicts long-time-step molecular dynamics, preserving symplectic and time-reversible properties.
In this paper, we present an online adaptive PCA algorithm that is able to compute the full dimensional eigenspace per new time-step of sequential data. The algorithm is based on a one-step update rule that considers all second order correlations between previous samples and the new time-step. Our algorithm has O(n) co…
The correspondence between residual networks and dynamical systems motivates researchers to unravel the physics of ResNets with well-developed tools in numeral methods of ODE systems. The Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method is an adaptive time stepping that renders a good trade-off between the stability and efficiency. Can we …
New method reduces PDE surrogate model training costs by selectively acquiring time steps.
In this introductory paper, we discuss how quantitative finance problems under some common risk factor dynamics for some common instruments and approaches can be formulated as time-continuous or time-discrete forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) final-value or control problems, how these final val…
GPU speeds up Monte Carlo simulations for large time steps.
In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on some finite history is of interest. This problem is significantly mor…
A complete error analysis of variational integrators is obtained, by blowing up the discrete variational principles, all of which have a singularity at zero time-step. Divisions by the time step lead to an order that is one less than observed in simulations, a deficit that is repaired with the help of a new past-future…
The paper analyzes bank decisions in a three-step model, focusing on equity and debt raising.
Improved solver maintains positivity and accuracy across all time steps.
A neural RNN model adapts time steps for non-stationary time series data.
In a linear stochastic bandit model, each arm is a vector in an Euclidean space and the observed return at each time step is an unknown linear function of the chosen arm at that time step. In this paper, we investigate the problem of learning the best arm in a linear stochastic bandit model, where each arm's expected r…
A new deep learning method for option pricing in rough volatility models.
XAI identifies key time steps for early crop classification.
Recent efforts to improve the interpretability of deep neural networks use saliency to characterize the importance of input features to predictions made by models. Work on interpretability using saliency-based methods on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) has mostly targeted language tasks, and their applicability to tim…
Efficiently simulates the Heston model with large time steps using a novel method.
Intrusion detection for computer network systems has been becoming one of the most critical tasks for network administrators today. It has an important role for organizations, governments and our society due to the valuable resources hosted on computer networks. Traditional misuse detection strategies are unable to det…
New bounds for causal effect identification in time series graphs with latent confounders.
GANs can approximate SDEs for large time steps.
Forecasting multivariate time series data, such as prediction of electricity consumption, solar power production, and polyphonic piano pieces, has numerous valuable applications. However, complex and non-linear interdependencies between time steps and series complicate the task. To obtain accurate prediction, it is cru…
We present a new microscopic stochastic model for an ensemble of interacting investors that buy and sell stocks in discrete time steps via limit orders based on individual forecasts about the price of the stock. These orders determine the supply and demand fixing after each round (time step) the new price of the stock …
Paper assesses GMMB in VAs using FST for accurate net liability calculations.
Time series forecasting with limited data is a challenging yet critical task. While transformers have achieved outstanding performances in time series forecasting, they often require many training samples due to the large number of trainable parameters. In this paper, we propose a training technique for transformers th…
In a recurrent setting, conventional approaches to neural architecture search find and fix a general model for all data samples and time steps. We propose a novel algorithm that can dynamically search for the structure of cells in a recurrent neural network model. Based on a combination of recurrent and recursive neura…
Study identifies specialist representations from generalist models without parametric constraints.
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is normally used in recurrent neural network (RNN) as basic recurrent unit. However,conventional LSTM assumes that the state at current time step depends on previous time step. This assumption constraints the time dependency modeling capability. In this study, we propose a new variation of…
Paper presents a new backward deep BSDE method for solving nonlinear FBSDE problems.
Analyzing the temporal behavior of nodes in time-varying graphs is useful for many applications such as targeted advertising, community evolution and outlier detection. In this paper, we present a novel approach, STWalk, for learning trajectory representations of nodes in temporal graphs. The proposed framework makes u…
New methods combine MALA and mGRAD for scalable Bayesian inference in high-dimensional state-space models.
A hybrid training method reduces SNN training time and complexity.
Paper proposes deep learning for operators in semigroups, improving dynamical system modeling.
Paper predicts future graph structures using time series methods.
A new framework for pricing the European currency option is developed in the case where the spot exchange rate fellows a time-changed fractional Brownian motion. An analytic formula for pricing European foreign currency option is proposed by a mean self-financing delta-hedging argument in a discrete time setting. The m…
New approach shapes error distribution in long-term forecasting.
We introduce a new method to price American options based on Chebyshev interpolation. In each step of a dynamic programming time-stepping we approximate the value function with Chebyshev polynomials. The key advantage of this approach is that it allows to shift the model-dependent computations into an offline phase pri…
A new method relaxes molecules without needing non-equilibrium data.
Models that can simulate how environments change in response to actions can be used by agents to plan and act efficiently. We improve on previous environment simulators from high-dimensional pixel observations by introducing recurrent neural networks that are able to make temporally and spatially coherent predictions f…
Implicit schemes are popular methods for the integration of time dependent PDEs such as hyperbolic and parabolic PDEs. However the necessity to solve corresponding linear systems at each time step constitutes a complexity bottleneck in their application to PDEs with rough coefficients. We present a generalization of ga…
We explore a novel setting of the Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problem inspired from real world applications which we call bandits with "stochastic delayed composite anonymous feedback (SDCAF)". In SDCAF, the rewards on pulling arms are stochastic with respect to time but spread over a fixed number of time steps in the fut…
Enhances CEV model pricing with high-order scheme and adaptive time stepping.
STAM learns important time steps and variables for multivariate time series prediction.
This paper addresses the question of identifying the time-window in short-term past from which the information regarding the future occupant's window opening actions and resulting window states in buildings can be predicted. The addressed sequence duration was in the range between 30 and 240 time-steps of indoor climat…
Framework learns image dynamics between time steps using latent variables.
Despite some empirical success at correcting exposure bias in machine translation, scheduled sampling algorithms suffer from a major drawback: they incorrectly assume that words in the reference translations and in sampled sequences are aligned at each time step. Our new differentiable sampling algorithm addresses this…