Recent theoretical results establish that time-consistent valuations (i.e. pricing operators) can be created by backward iteration of one-period valuations. In this paper we investigate the continuous-time limits of well-known actuarial premium principles when such backward iteration procedures are applied. We show tha…
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48 results for “time-consistent actuarial”
A new runtime for AI agents calculates risks in real-time.
problem Managing risks and liabilities in autonomous AI actions.
method A time-consistent counterfactual actuarial layer with explicit underwriting boundaries.
result Establishes a well-defined toll and guarantees executed-action budgets.
We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We prop…
Gaming-Resistant Insurance Contracts for Autonomous AI Agents: Strategy-Proof Toll Mechanism Designcs.GT
Insurance contracts for autonomous AI agents must be actuarially sound and resistant to gaming.
problem Designing insurance contracts for autonomous AI agents that are actuarially sound and resistant to gaming.
method Characterizing a five-attack space and proving the actuarial runtime is gaming-resistant.
result An incentive-compatible layer for actuarial control of autonomous-agent side effects.
Framework insures AI actions with reserve capital, preventing loss.
problem Ensuring safety and accountability for AI actions with varying side effects.
method Developed Actuarial Action Interface (AAI) and Authority Frontier to price and gate AI actions.
result Found common refusal and release patterns across domains, with varying required reserve capital.
The net-premium principle is considered to be the most genuine and fair premium principle in actuarial applications. However, an insurance company, applying the net-premium principle, goes bankrupt with probability one in the long run, even if the company covers its entire costs by collecting the respective fees from i…
Actuarial-consistency and two-step actuarial valuations: a new paradigm to insurance valuationq-fin.PR
Paper introduces new actuarial-consistent valuations for insurance liabilities.
problem Valuation of insurance liabilities considering both financial and actuarial risks.
method Proposes two-step actuarial valuations and actuarial-consistent procedures.
result Actuarial-consistent valuations are equivalent to two-step actuarial valuations under coherence.
The paper concerns primal and dual representations as well as time consistency of set-valued dynamic risk measures. Set-valued risk measures appear naturally when markets with transaction costs are considered and capital requirements can be made in a basket of currencies or assets. Time consistency of scalar risk measu…
In this paper we provide a flexible framework allowing for a unified study of time consistency of risk measures and performance measures (also known as acceptability indices). The proposed framework not only integrates existing forms of time consistency, but also provides a comprehensive toolbox for analysis and synthe…
In this paper we present results on dynamic multivariate scalar risk measures, which arise in markets with transaction costs and systemic risk. Dual representations of such risk measures are presented. These are then used to obtain the main results of this paper on time consistency; namely, an equivalent recursive form…
The study uses ML and AI to forecast pension fund mortality, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Incorporating longevity risk into pension fund financial assessments.
method Employed actuarial learning with ML/AI techniques (regression trees, random forest, boosting, XGBoost, CatBoost, neural networks) on actuarial data.
result ML/AI algorithms outperform the Lee-Carter model in mortality forecasting for pension funds.
Working in a continuous time setting, we extend to the general case of dynamic risk measures continuous from above the characterization of time consistency in terms of ``cocycle condition'' of the minimal penalty function. We prove also the supermartingale property for general time consistent dynamic risk measures. Whe…
In this paper we study time-consistent risk measures for returns that are given by a GARCH(1,1) model. We present a construction of risk measures based on their static counterparts that overcomes the lack of time-consistency. We then study in detail our construction for the risk measures Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Average…
Graphical models improve actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
problem Improving actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
method Using graphical models to represent complex inter-dependencies and incorporate qualitative knowledge.
result Graphical models can be used to express and analyze non-life insurance claims data.
The main goal of this paper is to investigate under which conditions cash-subadditive convex dynamic risk measures are time-consistent. Proceeding as in Detlefsen and Scandolo \cite{detlef-scandolo} and inspired by their result, we give a dual representation of dynamic cash-subadditive convex risk measures (that can al…
LLMs help automate extraction of actuarial variables from unstructured claims data.
problem Manual processing of unstructured claims data is time-consuming and inconsistent.
method Two-stage processing architecture using LLMs, modular Python pipeline.
result LLM-based extraction achieved high accuracy and practical actuarial value.
We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not …
Study optimizes CANN for actuarial tasks using RSM.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for neural networks in actuarial science.
method Factorial design and response surface methodology (RSM).
result Reduced hyperparameter optimization from 288 to 188, achieving near-optimal performance.
Study dynamic risk measures and performance indices using distortion functions.
problem Investigate time consistency of dynamic risk measures and performance indices generated by distortion functions.
method Analyze dynamic coherent risk measures (DCRMs) and dynamic weighted value at risk measures, proving their equivalence. Establish properties of families of DCRMs generated by distortion functions and define corresponding dynamic coherent acceptability indices (DCAIs). Examine time consistency of DCRMs and DCAIs.
result DCRM generated by distortion functions are sub-martingale time consistent but not super-martingale time consistent and not weakly acceptance time consistent.
This paper uses information theory to improve risk modeling in big data.
problem Insufficient application of information theory in actuarial science.
method Explores information theory to uncover performance limits of insurance big data systems.
result Guidance for risk modeling and actuarial pricing systems.
In this work we give a comprehensive overview of the time consistency property of dynamic risk and performance measures, focusing on a the discrete time setup. The two key operational concepts used throughout are the notion of the LM-measure and the notion of the update rule that, we believe, are the key tools for stud…
Enhances non-life insurance pricing models using transformer models.
problem Improving predictive power of non-life insurance pricing models.
method Enhances actuarial non-life models with transformer models for tabular data.
result Transformer models outperform benchmark models in claim frequency prediction.
Study finds actuarial unfairness in China's pension system, proposing income-dependent annuitization rules.
problem Actuarial fairness in China's NDC pension system when mortality differs across income groups.
method Developed a mortality-differentiated Lee-Carter framework with group-specific baseline mortality schedules and a common period effect, estimated using national and subgroup data.
result Substantial actuarial unfairness in the current age-only divisor, with a reverse transfer from poorer to richer retirees.
Equivalent characterizations of multiportfolio time consistency are deduced for closed convex and coherent set-valued risk measures on with image space in the power set of . In the convex case, multiportfolio time consistency is equivalent to a cocycle condition on…
Actuaries tackle loss of earning capacity in Denmark, balancing public benefits and private insurance.
problem Balancing public benefits and private insurance for loss of earning capacity in Denmark.
method Innovative approaches from researchers and practitioners, leveraging actuarial expertise.
result Development of equitable, data-driven solutions to mitigate risk and enhance societal well-being.
GenAI improves actuarial practices through case studies.
problem Improving actuarial practices using AI.
method Four case studies using LLMs, Retrieval-Augmented Generation, and vision-enabled LLMs.
result GenAI enhances claim cost prediction, market comparisons, and car damage classification.
Proposes a stochastic model for South African actuarial use.
problem Long-term forecasting for South African institutions.
method Modeling economic series, estimating parameters, testing stability.
result Validated model for long-term forecasts.
Optimal investment and risk control strategies for insurers are derived using a time-consistent approach.
problem Optimal investment and risk control for insurers under mean-variance criterion.
method Introducing a deterministic forward auxiliary process to formulate a time-consistent problem.
result Optimal strategy and value function obtained in closed-form for the new problem.
Paper finds a method to compute fair risk-sharing rules.
problem Finding a fair and understandable risk-sharing rule.
method Established a one-to-one correspondence with a fixed point approach.
result Fast numerical method for computing AFPO risk-sharing rules.
In this paper we present results on scalar risk measures in markets with transaction costs. Such risk measures are defined as the minimal capital requirements in the cash asset. First, some results are provided on the dual representation of such risk measures, with particular emphasis given on the space of dual variabl…
Novel GLMMNet model tackles high-cardinality categorical features in actuarial applications.
problem Inadequate encoding methods for high-cardinality categorical features in actuarial data.
method Generalised Linear Mixed Model Neural Network (GLMMNet) integrating a generalised linear mixed model in a deep learning framework.
result GLMMNet often outperforms or performs comparably with entity embedded neural networks, providing transparency.
The paper introduces a new class of multivariate mixtures for actuarial applications.
problem Developing a new class of multivariate mixtures for actuarial calculations.
method Proposed a class of multivariate matrix-exponential affine mixtures with matrix-exponential marginals.
result Explicit calculations of actuarial quantities are possible due to the proposed class's properties.
Valuation Reveals Uncertaintyq-fin.MF
Paper recovers uncertainty from dynamic valuation rules.
problem Recovering latent uncertainty from observable valuation rules.
method Developed procedures to identify and characterize uncertainty structures from valuation rules.
result Valuation rules contain sufficient information to identify and recover uncertainty structures.
Framework for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic processes.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in dynamic stochastic processes.
method Define dynamic uncertainty sets and dynamic robust risk measures.
result Dynamic robust risk measures are time-consistent under specific uncertainty sets.
You are a financial analyst. At the beginning of every week, you are able to rank every pair of stochastic processes starting from that week up to the horizon. Suppose that two processes are equal at the beginning of the week. Your ranking procedure is time consistent if the ranking does not change between this week an…
Residual U-net with Self-Attention to Solve Multi-Agent Time-Consistent Optimal Trade Executionq-fin.TR
Deep neural net solves multi-agent optimal trading problem.
problem Optimal trade execution for multiple agents and assets.
method Residual U-net with self-attention for viscosity solution approximation.
result Neural network approach outperforms finite difference methods.
We study time-consistency questions for processes of monetary risk measures that depend on bounded discrete-time processes describing the evolution of financial values. The time horizon can be finite or infinite. We call a process of monetary risk measures time-consistent if it assigns to a process of financial values …
The balance property is crucial for insurance pricing, ensuring total actuarial price equals loss. Maximum likelihood GLMs fulfill it, but Lindholm-Wüthrich suggests three methods, with constrained GLM being superior.
problem Ensuring the balance property in insurance pricing models
method Using constrained GLM fitting
result Constrained GLM fitting is superior to the two previously discussed balance correction methods
DRN improves actuarial distributional forecasting with interpretable neural networks.
problem Challenges in modeling loss distributional properties with classic methods.
method Combines GLMs with a modified DDR method to flexibly refine baseline distribution.
result DRN improves predictive performance while maintaining interpretability.
We consider portfolio selection when decisions based on a dynamic risk measure are affected by the use of a moving horizon, and the possible inconsistencies that this creates. By giving a formal treatment of time consistency which is independent of Bellman's equations, we show that there is a new sense in which these d…
Inspired by Strotz's consistent planning strategy, we formulate the infinite horizon mean-variance stopping problem as a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium in order to determine time consistent strategies with no regret. Equilibria among stopping times or randomized stopping times may not exist. This motivates us to cons…
Various types of structures that enable a group of individuals to pool their mortality risk have been proposed in the literature. Collectively, the structures are called pooled annuity funds. Since the pooled annuity funds propose different methods of pooling mortality risk, we investigate the connections between them …
We study time consistent dynamic pricing mechanisms of European contingent claims under uncertainty by using G framework introduced by Peng ([24]). We consider a financial market consisting of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modelled by a geometric generalized G-Brownian motion, which features the…
New method solves continuous time mean-variance model for consistent investment strategy.
problem Time-consistent optimal strategy for continuous time mean-variance model.
method Developed a new Bellman principle method.
result Obtained a time-consistent dynamic optimal strategy.
Develops RL for dynamic risk assessment in stochastic optimization.
problem Time-consistent risk assessment in stochastic optimization problems.
method Model-free reinforcement learning with dynamic convex risk measures, time-consistent dynamic programming, policy gradient updates, actor-critic neural network optimization.
result Demonstrates optimal policies for statistical arbitrage, financial hedging, and robot control.
We define Conditional quasi concave Performance Measures (CPMs), on random variables bounded from below, to accommodate for additional information. Our notion encompasses a wide variety of cases, from conditional expected utility and certainty equivalent to conditional acceptability indexes. We provide the characteriza…
When we implement a portfolio selection methodology under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors' risk aversion which may be time-dependent, or even state-dependent during the investment procedure. In this paper, we propose a behavior risk aversion model, which is a piecewise linear funct…
Multi-period Mean-Buffered Probability of Exceedance in Defined Contribution Portfolio Optimizationq-fin.PM
Investigates multi-period portfolio optimization for DC plans using buffered Probability of Exceedance.
problem Optimizing long-term Defined Contribution plans with realistic constraints and dynamic dynamics.
method Formulates and solves bilevel optimization problems for pre-commitment and time-consistent Mean-bPoE and Mean-CVaR portfolio optimization.
result Time-consistent Mean-bPoE strategies maintain investor preferences for minimum terminal wealth, unlike Mean-CVaR.