Paper introduces new actuarial-consistent valuations for insurance liabilities.
problem Valuation of insurance liabilities considering both financial and actuarial risks.
method Proposes two-step actuarial valuations and actuarial-consistent procedures.
result Actuarial-consistent valuations are equivalent to two-step actuarial valuations under coherence.
The study uses ML and AI to forecast pension fund mortality, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Incorporating longevity risk into pension fund financial assessments.
method Employed actuarial learning with ML/AI techniques (regression trees, random forest, boosting, XGBoost, CatBoost, neural networks) on actuarial data.
result ML/AI algorithms outperform the Lee-Carter model in mortality forecasting for pension funds.
Graphical models improve actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
problem Improving actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
method Using graphical models to represent complex inter-dependencies and incorporate qualitative knowledge.
result Graphical models can be used to express and analyze non-life insurance claims data.
LLMs help automate extraction of actuarial variables from unstructured claims data.
problem Manual processing of unstructured claims data is time-consuming and inconsistent.
method Two-stage processing architecture using LLMs, modular Python pipeline.
result LLM-based extraction achieved high accuracy and practical actuarial value.
Study optimizes CANN for actuarial tasks using RSM.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for neural networks in actuarial science.
method Factorial design and response surface methodology (RSM).
result Reduced hyperparameter optimization from 288 to 188, achieving near-optimal performance.
This paper uses information theory to improve risk modeling in big data.
problem Insufficient application of information theory in actuarial science.
method Explores information theory to uncover performance limits of insurance big data systems.
result Guidance for risk modeling and actuarial pricing systems.
Enhances non-life insurance pricing models using transformer models.
problem Improving predictive power of non-life insurance pricing models.
method Enhances actuarial non-life models with transformer models for tabular data.
result Transformer models outperform benchmark models in claim frequency prediction.
Study finds actuarial unfairness in China's pension system, proposing income-dependent annuitization rules.
problem Actuarial fairness in China's NDC pension system when mortality differs across income groups.
method Developed a mortality-differentiated Lee-Carter framework with group-specific baseline mortality schedules and a common period effect, estimated using national and subgroup data.
result Substantial actuarial unfairness in the current age-only divisor, with a reverse transfer from poorer to richer retirees.
Actuaries tackle loss of earning capacity in Denmark, balancing public benefits and private insurance.
problem Balancing public benefits and private insurance for loss of earning capacity in Denmark.
method Innovative approaches from researchers and practitioners, leveraging actuarial expertise.
result Development of equitable, data-driven solutions to mitigate risk and enhance societal well-being.
GenAI improves actuarial practices through case studies.
problem Improving actuarial practices using AI.
method Four case studies using LLMs, Retrieval-Augmented Generation, and vision-enabled LLMs.
result GenAI enhances claim cost prediction, market comparisons, and car damage classification.
Paper finds a method to compute fair risk-sharing rules.
problem Finding a fair and understandable risk-sharing rule.
method Established a one-to-one correspondence with a fixed point approach.
result Fast numerical method for computing AFPO risk-sharing rules.
Novel GLMMNet model tackles high-cardinality categorical features in actuarial applications.
problem Inadequate encoding methods for high-cardinality categorical features in actuarial data.
method Generalised Linear Mixed Model Neural Network (GLMMNet) integrating a generalised linear mixed model in a deep learning framework.
result GLMMNet often outperforms or performs comparably with entity embedded neural networks, providing transparency.
The paper introduces a new class of multivariate mixtures for actuarial applications.
problem Developing a new class of multivariate mixtures for actuarial calculations.
method Proposed a class of multivariate matrix-exponential affine mixtures with matrix-exponential marginals.
result Explicit calculations of actuarial quantities are possible due to the proposed class's properties.
The balance property is crucial for insurance pricing, ensuring total actuarial price equals loss. Maximum likelihood GLMs fulfill it, but Lindholm-Wüthrich suggests three methods, with constrained GLM being superior.
problem Ensuring the balance property in insurance pricing models
method Using constrained GLM fitting
result Constrained GLM fitting is superior to the two previously discussed balance correction methods
DRN improves actuarial distributional forecasting with interpretable neural networks.
problem Challenges in modeling loss distributional properties with classic methods.
method Combines GLMs with a modified DDR method to flexibly refine baseline distribution.
result DRN improves predictive performance while maintaining interpretability.
Various types of structures that enable a group of individuals to pool their mortality risk have been proposed in the literature. Collectively, the structures are called pooled annuity funds. Since the pooled annuity funds propose different methods of pooling mortality risk, we investigate the connections between them …
Framework insures AI actions with reserve capital, preventing loss.
problem Ensuring safety and accountability for AI actions with varying side effects.
method Developed Actuarial Action Interface (AAI) and Authority Frontier to price and gate AI actions.
result Found common refusal and release patterns across domains, with varying required reserve capital.
Insurance contracts for autonomous AI agents must be actuarially sound and resistant to gaming.
problem Designing insurance contracts for autonomous AI agents that are actuarially sound and resistant to gaming.
method Characterizing a five-attack space and proving the actuarial runtime is gaming-resistant.
result An incentive-compatible layer for actuarial control of autonomous-agent side effects.
Machine learning models outperform traditional actuarial methods in predicting health insurance costs.
problem Improving accuracy in health insurance pricing to identify concession opportunities.
method Developed and evaluated two machine learning models at the patient and employer-group levels.
result Machine learning models outperformed traditional actuarial models by 20% in predicting costs.
The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.
problem Modeling and pricing cyber insurance policies, especially for systemic risks.
method Distinguishes three types of cyber risks and proposes methods for their valuation.
result Complex methods are needed for systemic cyber risks, including risk-neutral valuation and monetary risk measures.
The paper examines higher moments in insurance, focusing on coskewness and its impact on actuarial quantities.
problem The impact of higher-order moments on actuarial applications, particularly expected shortfall and life annuity valuation.
method Derives analytical bounds for mixed moments under unspecified dependence structure, applies copula-based mixture model.
result Coskewness and odd-order mixed moments exhibit a monotonic relationship with expected shortfall and annuity premiums.
Study classifies liability insurance policies using machine learning.
problem Classifying liability insurance policies with or without claims.
method Used machine learning models like nearest neighbour and logistic regression on Actuarial Challenge dataset.
result Models accurately classified policies into claims and non-claims groups.
Neural network model improves longevity risk assessment.
problem Systematic mispricing of longevity risk in linear models.
method Hybrid-Lift framework combining Hierarchical LSTM networks and Mean-Bias Correction.
result Hybrid-Lift outperforms Li-Lee framework by 17.40% in Sweden and 12.57% in West Germany.
Paper discusses extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
problem Extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
method Discuss and adapt Gini score for ties and case weights.
result Gini score can be used for tied rankings and case weights.
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.
problem Lack of appropriate models for valuing and managing mortality securities with long-range dependence.
method Proposes a novel class of Volterra mortality models that incorporate LRD, derived in closed-form solution.
result Models provide flexibility and tractability for valuing and hedging mortality-related products.
This paper aims to review the methodology behind the generalized linear models which are used in analyzing the actuarial situations instead of the ordinary multiple linear regression. We introduce how to assess the adequacy of the model which includes comparing nested models using the deviance and the scaled deviance. …
CANN models improve insurance claim count predictions using telematics data.
problem Improving insurance claim count predictions with telematics data.
method Combining classical actuarial models with neural networks for telematics data.
result CANN models outperform traditional models in predicting insurance claims.
Calculation of an optimal tariff is a principal challenge for pricing actuaries. In this contribution we are concerned with the renewal insurance business discussing various mathematical aspects of calculation of an optimal renewal tariff. Our motivation comes from two important actuarial tasks, namely a) construction …
A new runtime for AI agents calculates risks in real-time.
problem Managing risks and liabilities in autonomous AI actions.
method A time-consistent counterfactual actuarial layer with explicit underwriting boundaries.
result Establishes a well-defined toll and guarantees executed-action budgets.
New method simplifies individual claims reserving.
problem Insufficient flexibility and robustness in existing methods.
method Building on classical chain-ladder method, introduces new perspective.
result Advances toward a new standard for micro-level reserving.
In this paper, we propose a stochastic investment model for actuarial use in South Africa by modelling price inflation rates, share dividends, long term and short-term interest rates for the period 1960-2018 and inflation-linked bonds for the period 2000-2018. Possible bi-directional relations between the economic seri…
Review of Gerber-Shiu function for practical actuarial science.
problem Difficulty in numerical approximation and statistical inference of Gerber-Shiu function.
method Comprehensive review of formulations, surplus processes, numerical methods, and statistical inference.
result Enhanced understanding and practical guide for Gerber-Shiu function.
Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on each other in a circular way, and it is a non-trivial problem to solve that circul…
Recent theoretical results establish that time-consistent valuations (i.e. pricing operators) can be created by backward iteration of one-period valuations. In this paper we investigate the continuous-time limits of well-known actuarial premium principles when such backward iteration procedures are applied. We show tha…
This guide clarifies techniques for assessing and comparing model calibration and performance.
problem Assessing and comparing the calibration and performance of predictive models in insurance and actuarial practice.
method Clarifies statistical techniques for assessing model calibration and comparing models, emphasizing the importance of specifying the prediction target functional and choosing the appropriate scoring function.
result Provides guidance for the practical choice of scoring functions and illustrates results with real data case studies.
New method for valuing and hedging credit risk when defaults cannot be hedged.
problem Valuation and hedging of counterparty credit risk when there's no protection available.
method Local risk-minimization approach via BSDE (Backward Stochastic Differential Equation)
result Optimal strategy computed for valuing and hedging credit risk.
A new pricing model reduces bias in insurance premiums.
problem Insurance pricing fairness and discrimination.
method Adversarial learning and autoencoders for debiasing multiple pricing factors.
result A single pricing model mitigates bias across geographic and car types.
Paper compares MICE-based methods to deep generative models for synthetic data in ratemaking.
problem Limited access to high-quality data for actuarial ratemaking.
method Benchmarked MICE-based models against VAEs and CTA-GANs.
result MICE-based models preserve marginal distributions and multivariate relationships better than deep models.
Bounds derived for contract values in life insurance with financial market interaction.
problem Incompleteness in life tables for modern insurance products.
method Derivation of upper and lower bounds for hybrid functionals of lifetime under different assumptions.
result Characterization of worst- and best-case contract values over compatible mortality processes.
The paper optimizes risk-sharing in decentralized networks.
problem Optimizing risk-sharing among networked agents.
method Analyzes actuarially fair risk-sharing rules among friends in a network.
result Characterizes the optimal signed linear risk-sharing rule.
We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We prop…
The net-premium principle is considered to be the most genuine and fair premium principle in actuarial applications. However, an insurance company, applying the net-premium principle, goes bankrupt with probability one in the long run, even if the company covers its entire costs by collecting the respective fees from i…
Let Xλ1,…,Xλn be dependent non-negative random variables and Yi=IpiXλi, i=1,…,n, where Ip1,…,Ipn are independent Bernoulli random variables independent of Xλi's, with E[Ipi]=pi, i=1,…,n. In actuarial sciences, Yi corresponds to the claim amo…
SynthETIC simulates insurance claims with customizable features.
problem Lack of synthetic data for insurance claim analysis.
method Develops a new simulator for individual insurance claims with customizable features.
result SynthETIC fills a gap in actuarial toolkit for synthetic data.
Study optimal reinsurance and investment strategies under common shocks affecting financial and actuarial markets.
problem Maximizing expected exponential utility of terminal wealth in a company facing both ordinary and catastrophic claims.
method Modeling common shocks affecting financial and actuarial markets, using stochastic control and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations.
result Characterization of optimal reinsurance and investment strategies under common shock dependence.
Study improves motor insurance claim prediction using geographic data.
problem Limited location identifiers in public actuarial datasets.
method Zone-level modeling framework with environmental and orthoimagery data.
result Geographic information improves MTPL claim prediction accuracy.
Unified framework for fair pricing in long-term insurance products.
problem Unclear generalization of fair pricing methods to long-term products.
method Reformulate multi-state transition models as Poisson regression problems.
result Direct application of existing fair pricing methods to long-term insurance products.
A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network (LANTERN) framework for modeling health-state transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal data.
problem Estimating long-term care transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal health data.
method A neural network that learns from individual health history, incorporates time elapsed, and conditions on demographic and socioeconomic attributes.
result Improves severe disability discrimination and maintains strong calibration.