The Heston model is validated for option pricing using theoretical derivations and empirical market data.
problem Validating the Heston model for accurate option pricing.
method Theoretical derivations and empirical validations using Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning.
result The Heston model is robust and relevant for current financial markets.
This work proposes validation diagnostics for SBI algorithms using Normalizing Flows.
problem Lack of appropriate validation methods for SBI algorithms with complex, high-dimensional data.
method Develops validation diagnostics based on Normalizing Flows with theoretical guarantees.
result Offers theoretical guarantees on consistency of NF-based estimators.
HD-BWDM improves clustering validation in high-dimensional data.
problem Determining the right number of clusters in high-dimensional data.
method HD-BWDM integrates random projection, PCA, trimmed clustering, and medoid-based distances.
result HD-BWDM remains stable and interpretable under high-dimensional projections and contamination.
Bayesian online learning algorithm for one-pass data, achieving frequentist validity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Theoretical limitations in Bayesian online learning, especially in the one-pass setting.
method Proposed a new Bayesian online learning algorithm with a warm-start phase for the one-pass regime, establishing convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification.
result The sequentially updated posterior attains optimal convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification without diverging mini-batch sample sizes.
New theory validates the use of invariant predictors for OOD generalization.
problem Ensuring predictors generalize well across unseen environments.
method Developed new theoretical conditions and derived an Inter Gradient Alignment algorithm.
result Validated the necessity of invariant predictors for OOD optimality.
Used to estimate the risk of an estimator or to perform model selection, cross-validation is a widespread strategy because of its simplicity and its apparent universality. Many results exist on the model selection performances of cross-validation procedures. This survey intends to relate these results to the most recen…
Study improves understanding of non-differentiable penalties in high-dimensional settings.
problem Theoretical understanding of non-differentiable penalties like generalized LASSO and nuclear norm in high-dimensional settings.
method Proportional high-dimensional regime analysis with finite sample upper bounds on expected squared error.
result LO provides accurate estimation of out-of-sample risk in high-dimensional settings.
Optimizes SGLD noise structure for better generalization bounds.
problem Improving generalization bounds for large models trained with SGLD.
method Manipulates the noise structure in SGLD to optimize information-theoretical bounds.
result Optimal noise covariance is the square root of the expected gradient covariance under certain constraints.
We explore non-acyclic GFlowNets in discrete settings.
problem Training and understanding non-acyclic GFlowNets in discrete environments.
method Relaxing acyclicity assumption, simpler theoretical framework, novel theoretical insights, experimental validation.
result Theoretical and experimental validation of non-acyclic GFlowNets in discrete environments.
Randomization tests rely on simple data transformations and possess an appealing robustness property. In addition to being finite-sample valid if the data distribution is invariant under the transformation, these tests can be asymptotically valid under a suitable studentization of the test statistic, even if the invari…
New IF method improves accuracy in deep neural networks with noisy data.
problem Inaccurate influence estimates in deep neural networks, especially with noisy data.
method Established a connection between influence estimation error, validation set risk, and sharpness, introducing a novel estimation form for flat validation minima.
result Our novel Influence Function approach provides more accurate influence estimates, validated across various tasks.
This paper improves model selection with cross-validation using domain knowledge.
problem Improving model selection with cross-validation risk estimation.
method Establishes distribution-free deviation bounds using VC dimension, formalizes Learning Spaces based on domain knowledge.
result Enhanced generalization through selection of candidate models based on domain knowledge.
With the increasing size of today's data sets, finding the right parameter configuration in model selection via cross-validation can be an extremely time-consuming task. In this paper we propose an improved cross-validation procedure which uses nonparametric testing coupled with sequential analysis to determine the bes…
This paper tackles deep clustering evaluation challenges in high-dimensional data.
problem Evaluation of deep clustering methods is problematic due to the curse of dimensionality and variations in embedding spaces.
method Develops a theoretical framework to highlight the ineffectiveness of internal validation measures and proposes a systematic approach to applying clustering validity indices in deep learning.
result The proposed framework reduces misguidance from improper use of clustering validity indices in deep learning.
The paper develops a cross-validation method for improving signal denoising techniques.
problem Improving signal denoising methods for nonparametric regression.
method Develops a general cross-validation framework for signal denoising and applies it to Trend Filtering and Dyadic CART.
result Cross validated versions of Trend Filtering and Dyadic CART achieve nearly optimal convergence rates.
A framework combines unsupervised and semi-supervised AD using synthetic anomalies.
problem Improving anomaly detection in both unsupervised and semi-supervised settings.
method Proposes a new framework that uses both known and synthetic anomalies for training.
result Synthetic anomalies improve anomaly modeling in low-density regions and provide optimal convergence guarantees.
The lasso and related sparsity inducing algorithms have been the target of substantial theoretical and applied research. Correspondingly, many results are known about their behavior for a fixed or optimally chosen tuning parameter specified up to unknown constants. In practice, however, this oracle tuning parameter is …
The paper clarifies conditions for using benchmark scores in machine learning.
problem Using benchmark scores to draw scientific inferences about learning problems.
method Developing conditions of construct validity inspired by psychological measurement theory.
result Clarifies conditions under which benchmark scores support diverse scientific claims.
OpenAlpha validates decentralized capital strategies using game theory and market aggregation.
problem Decentralized capital management's lack of trust-minimised, adaptive deployment.
method Game-theoretic validation, adversarial auditing, market-based belief aggregation.
result Confidence scores from validation phases inform capital allocation rules.
Paper introduces statistical learning for point processes.
problem Statistical learning for point processes in general spaces.
method Combines bivariate innovations and point process cross-validation.
result Statistical learning approach outperforms state of the art.
New method identifies valid IVs for bi-directional MR with invalid instruments.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with invalid instruments and unmeasured confounding.
method Theoretical investigation and cluster fusion-like method to discover valid IV sets.
result Theoretical demonstration and experimental validation of the method's effectiveness.
Reshuffling splits improves hyperparameter optimization's generalization performance.
problem Improving peak performance of machine learning models through better hyperparameter optimization.
method Reshuffling splits for every hyperparameter configuration improves generalization performance.
result Reshuffling leads to better generalization performance compared to fixed splits.
The paper improves ALO for ℓ1-regularized models.
problem Estimating out-of-sample error for ℓ1-regularized models. method Developed a novel theory for ℓ1-regularized problems, bounding ALO error. result For ℓ1-regularized problems, ALO error goes to zero as p goes to infinity. Improved LOO cross-validation for function approximation.
problem Estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) for function approximation.
method Weighted Leave-One-Out cross-validation based on Gaussian Process.
result Significantly more precise ISE estimation compared to unweighted LOO.
Study validates numerical method for singular FBSDEs convergence.
problem Solving singular FBSDEs and associated PDEs.
method Particles approximation for transport operator and tree approximation for diffusion operator.
result Convergence rate of numerical method proved under reasonable conditions.
A method for efficient CV estimates in Bayesian hierarchical models.
problem Computational infeasibility of cross-validation in Bayesian hierarchical regression models.
method Conditioning on variance-covariance parameters to transform CV into an optimization problem.
result Equivalent or improved predictive estimates compared to full cross-validation.
This paper elaborates on the validation requirements for rating systems and probabilities of default (PDs) which were introduced with the New Capital Standards (Basel II). We start in Section 2 with some introductory remarks on the topics and approaches that will be discussed later on. Then we have a view on the develo…
While many statistical models and methods are now available for network analysis, resampling network data remains a challenging problem. Cross-validation is a useful general tool for model selection and parameter tuning, but is not directly applicable to networks since splitting network nodes into groups requires delet…
Rank minimization has attracted a lot of attention due to its robustness in data recovery. To overcome the computational difficulty, rank is often replaced with nuclear norm. For several rank minimization problems, such a replacement has been theoretically proven to be valid, i.e., the solution to nuclear norm minimiza…
Decoding, ie prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on cross-validation procedures for decoding in neuroimaging. It includes a didacti…
A new method controls risk for set predictors using cross-validation.
problem Inefficient set predictors when data limited.
method Cross-validation conformal risk control (CV-CRC).
result CV-CRC offers theoretical guarantees and reduces set size.
This note corrects a mistake in the paper "consistent cross-validatory model-selection for dependent data: hv-block cross-validation" by Racine (2000). In his paper, he implied that the therein proposed hv-block cross-validation is consistent in the sense of Shao (1993). To get this intuition, he relied on the spec…
Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but unfortunately, LOO does not scale well to large datasets. We propose a combination of u…
New method combines experimental and observational data for causal inference.
problem Combining internal validity of experiments and larger sample sizes of observations.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework with cross-validation.
result Efficacy and reliability demonstrated on real and synthetic data.
This work establishes always-valid risk bounds for online matrix completion.
problem Challenges in establishing always-valid concentration inequalities for online matrix completion.
method Combines non-asymptotic martingale concentration and regularized low-rank matrix regression.
result Establishes always-valid risk bound process for online matrix completion.
MOPI optimizes flexible set-valued mappings to achieve superior shape adaptivity in conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in achieving valid conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Minimax Optimization Predictive Inference (MOPI) framework that optimizes over a flexible class of set-valued mappings.
result MOPI achieves superior shape adaptivity and maintains a principled connection to mean squared coverage error.
CPTD improves prediction intervals in time series regression with cross-sectional data.
problem Constructing valid prediction intervals in time series regression with a cross-section.
method Conformal Prediction with Temporal Dependence (CPTD) for post-hoc, light-weight approach.
result CPTD maintains cross-sectional validity while improving longitudinal coverage.
Accurate model selection is a fundamental requirement for statistical analysis. In many real-world applications of graphical modelling, correct model structure identification is the ultimate objective. Standard model validation procedures such as information theoretic scores and cross validation have demonstrated poor …
A new method selects training samples for fine-tuning using validation set inference.
problem Selecting training examples for fine-tuning with limited target data.
method Invert train-validation roles; select samples affecting most predictions.
result Our method achieves lower test log-loss than state-of-the-art approaches.
Proposes PFWCP for multi-agent tasks with privacy and validity guarantees.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for multi-agent settings.
method Personalized federated weighted conformal prediction (PFWCP) combining local density ratio weighting and weighted quantile aggregation.
result Asymptotically valid coverage guarantees for each agent in heterogeneous settings.
A new algorithm speeds up rerandomization for better experiment balance.
problem Achieving optimal covariate balance in randomized experiments.
method Metropolis-Hastings framework with sampling-importance resampling.
result PSRSRR achieves significant speedups while maintaining statistical guarantees.
TBAL reduces manual annotation but requires validated data.
problem Creating large, high-quality labeled datasets.
method Threshold-based auto-labeling using human validation data.
result Sample complexity bounds on validation data needed.
Design of experiments improves validation of biomolecular networks.
problem Efficiently validate non-machine learning designed biomolecular networks.
method Use Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization to select experimental points.
result Developed a stopping criterion based on discrepancy metric and uncertainty.
Machine learning systems increasingly depend on pipelines of multiple algorithms to provide high quality and well structured predictions. This paper argues interaction effects between clustering and prediction (e.g. classification, regression) algorithms can cause subtle adverse behaviors during cross-validation that m…
New algorithm helps escape saddle points in optimization problems.
problem Optimizing smooth non-convex functions to avoid saddle points.
method Perturbed Saddle-escape Descent (PSD) algorithm with explicit constants.
result PSD finds approximate second-order stationary points efficiently.
Bayesian approach fixes overconfidence in ReLU networks, even slightly.
problem Overconfidence in ReLU networks far from training data.
method Theoretical analysis of approximate Gaussian distributions on ReLU weights, and empirical validation.
result Even a simplistic Bayesian approximation fixes overconfidence issues.
Paper proposes a new dynamic pricing method with always-valid online statistical learning.
problem Designing dynamic pricing policies that adapt to online uncertainty and maintain validity.
method Regularized online statistical learning with theoretical guarantees and three major advantages.
result Proposed OORMLP pricing policy secures logarithmic regret in decision horizon.
Paper proposes HCDC to improve hyperparameter search efficiency.
problem Poor generalizability of dataset condensation across different hyperparameters.
method HCDC algorithm that matches hyperparameter gradients for synthetic validation dataset.
result HCDC effectively maintains validation-performance rankings of models.