A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
In this paper, we derive generic bounds on the maximum deviations in prediction errors for sequential prediction via an information-theoretic approach. The fundamental bounds are shown to depend only on the conditional entropy of the data point to be predicted given the previous data points. In the asymptotic case, the…
This paper improves entropy bounds for ranking time-series complexity.
problem Ranking the complexity of time series processes.
method Building on information theoretic bounds, the paper improves the upper bound of conditional differential entropy using Hadamard's inequality and covariance matrix properties.
result The improved bounds can be used to rank the complexity of time series processes.
This paper examines error bounds for deep learning classifiers with noisy labels.
problem Understanding the performance of classifiers trained on noisy data.
method Derives error bounds for excess risk, decomposing it into statistical and approximation errors. Uses independent block construction for statistical dependencies and vector-valued setting for approximation error.
result Established theoretical results for error bounds in deep learning with noisy labels, mitigating the impact of high-dimensional input spaces.
The paper bounds the mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression.
problem Bounding the mean absolute error in deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Error decomposition techniques in statistical learning theory and non-convex optimization theory were used to derive upper bounds for approximation, estimation, and optimization errors.
result Theoretical upper bounds for mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression were derived and validated experimentally.
Careful tuning of a regularization parameter is indispensable in many machine learning tasks because it has a significant impact on generalization performances. Nevertheless, current practice of regularization parameter tuning is more of an art than a science, e.g., it is hard to tell how many grid-points would be need…
In this paper, we obtain generic bounds on the variances of estimation and prediction errors in time series analysis via an information-theoretic approach. It is seen in general that the error bounds are determined by the conditional entropy of the data point to be estimated or predicted given the side information or p…
We consider active, semi-supervised learning in an offline transductive setting. We show that a previously proposed error bound for active learning on undirected weighted graphs can be generalized by replacing graph cut with an arbitrary symmetric submodular function. Arbitrary non-symmetric submodular functions can be…
An information-theoretic upper bound on the generalization error of supervised learning algorithms is derived. The bound is constructed in terms of the mutual information between each individual training sample and the output of the learning algorithm. The bound is derived under more general conditions on the loss func…
Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for human-powered computation on many tasks challenging for computers. In this paper, we provide finite-sample exponential bounds on the error rate (in probability and in expectation) of hyperplane binary labeling rules under the Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. The bounds can be appl…
Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a knowledge discovery method that is used in many fields. Variational inference and Gibbs sampling methods for it are also wellknown. However, the variational approximation error has not been clarified yet, because NMF is not statistically regular and the prior distribution us…
The CUR matrix decomposition is an important extension of Nyström approximation to a general matrix. It approximates any data matrix in terms of a small number of its columns and rows. In this paper we propose a novel randomized CUR algorithm with an expected relative-error bound. The proposed algorithm has the advanta…
We propose a general framework for reconstructing and denoising single entries of incomplete and noisy entries. We describe: effective algorithms for deciding if and entry can be reconstructed and, if so, for reconstructing and denoising it; and a priori bounds on the error of each entry, individually. In the noiseless…
Principal component analysis (PCA) has been a prominent tool for high-dimensional data analysis. Online algorithms that estimate the principal component by processing streaming data are of tremendous practical and theoretical interests. Despite its rich applications, theoretical convergence analysis remains largely ope…
Mutual information has been successfully adopted in filter feature-selection methods to assess both the relevancy of a subset of features in predicting the target variable and the redundancy with respect to other variables. However, existing algorithms are mostly heuristic and do not offer any guarantee on the proposed…