Estimates time-varying network connections using multi-stage smoothing.
problem Estimating edge probabilities of time-varying networks.
method Multi-stage smoothing: temporal local smoothing followed by node-domain smoothing.
result Captures both smooth temporal evolution and structural patterns in connectivity.
A new method for embedding temporal relationships in graphs.
problem Limited performance of existing time-aware graph embedding methods.
method Integrates temporal smoothness and task-oriented negative sampling.
result Improves performance in various tasks, especially entity/relationship/temporal scoping prediction.
TATD predicts missing entries in time-evolving tensors by exploiting temporal dependency and sparsity.
problem Predict missing entries in time-evolving tensors with temporal dependency and sparsity issues.
method TATD (Time-Aware Tensor Decomposition) integrates temporal dependency and time-varying sparsity through a smoothing regularization with Gaussian kernel and alternating optimization.
result TATD achieves state-of-the-art accuracy for decomposing temporal tensors.
We present a principled approach for detecting overlapping temporal community structure in dynamic networks. Our method is based on the following framework: find the overlapping temporal community structure that maximizes a quality function associated with each snapshot of the network subject to a temporal smoothness c…
In a dynamic network, the neighborhood of the vertices evolve across different temporal snapshots of the network. Accurate modeling of this temporal evolution can help solve complex tasks involving real-life social and interaction networks. However, existing models for learning latent representation are inadequate for …
Paper introduces an unsupervised tensor-based anomaly detection method for spatiotemporal data.
problem Challenges in detecting anomalies in spatiotemporal data, especially in urban traffic monitoring and medical imaging.
method Formulates anomaly detection as a regularized robust low-rank + sparse tensor decomposition, incorporating spatiotemporal smoothness and local dependencies.
result Demonstrates improved anomaly detection performance on both synthetic and real data.
A method for learning from unlabeled time-series data using temporal smoothing and entropy maximization.
problem Learning from unlabeled time-series data efficiently and accurately.
method Training a feedforward neural network with two objectives: temporal smoothing and entropy maximization.
result The method extracts slowly evolving information from time-series data, filtering out noise.
Quantile Temporal-Difference learning proved convergent with proof.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of QTD despite empirical success.
method Proof of convergence using stochastic approximation and non-smooth analysis.
result QTD converges to fixed points with probability 1.
Evolutionary clustering aims at capturing the temporal evolution of clusters. This issue is particularly important in the context of social media data that are naturally temporally driven. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic model-based evolutionary clustering technique. The Temporal Multinomial Mixture (TMM)…
Post-estimation smoothing improves prediction accuracy with structural indices.
problem Using natural structural indices in machine learning without losing robustness.
method A post-estimation smoothing operator that separates from the original predictor.
result Post-estimation smoothing improves accuracy over original predictors under simple conditions.
Recent works demonstrated the usefulness of temporal coherence to regularize supervised training or to learn invariant features with deep architectures. In particular, enforcing smooth output changes while presenting temporally-closed frames from video sequences, proved to be an effective strategy. In this paper we pro…
Unified framework for efficient Gaussian process inference.
problem Efficient inference in non-conjugate Gaussian process models.
method Combines expectation propagation with linearization for improved efficiency.
result Unified view of various inference schemes, including classical smoothers and EP.
EAP clusters evolving data, promoting temporal smoothness and automatic cluster tracking.
problem Clustering time-evolving data with temporal smoothness and automatic cluster identification.
method Evolutionary Affinity Propagation (EAP) on a factor graph exchanging messages between adjacent data snapshots.
result EAP clusters data with temporal smoothness and automatically tracks clusters, outperforming existing methods.
Proposes tPARAFAC2 for tracking evolving patterns in time-evolving data.
problem Lack of temporal regularization in tensor factorizations for capturing evolving patterns.
method Temporal PARAFAC2 (tPARAFAC2) with temporal regularization.
result tPARAFAC2 accurately captures evolving patterns better than existing methods.
Efficient spatio-temporal Gaussian process inference method.
problem Scalable Gaussian process inference for multivariate, spatio-temporal data.
method Combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a scalable non-conjugate GP method.
result Linear scaling with respect to time and logarithmic scaling with respect to time steps.
Geometric method captures rare topics and temporal alignment in co-author networks.
problem Missing rare topics and smooth temporal alignment in topic modeling.
method Integrates multimodal text and co-author network data using Hellinger distances and Ward's linkage.
result Effective identification of rare topics and visualization of topic drift over time.
New analysis shows how temporal variability affects online learning performance.
problem Understanding the impact of temporal variability on online learning performance.
method Careful regret analysis and adaptive algorithm development.
result Proved a novel static regret bound that depends on temporal variability.
The Temporal Group LASSO is an example of a multi-task, regularized regression approach for the prediction of response variables that vary over time. The aim of this work is to introduce the reader to the concepts behind the Temporal Group LASSO and its related methods, as well as to the type of potential applications …
Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments …
Several applications of Reinforcement Learning suffer from instability due to high variance. This is especially prevalent in high dimensional domains. Regularization is a commonly used technique in machine learning to reduce variance, at the cost of introducing some bias. Most existing regularization techniques focus o…
PARAFAC2 has demonstrated success in modeling irregular tensors, where the tensor dimensions vary across one of the modes. An example scenario is modeling treatments across a set of patients with the varying number of medical encounters over time. Despite recent improvements on unconstrained PARAFAC2, its model factors…
A new method aligns spatial and temporal data, improving on Dynamic Time Warping.
problem Comparing data over space and time, accounting for both spatial and temporal variability.
method Spatio-Temporal Alignments (STA) using regularized optimal transport (OT) and soft-DTW.
result Soft-DTW increases quadratically with time shifts, effectively handling spatio-temporal data.
ARM improves multivariate time series forecasting by better capturing series-wise relationships.
problem Challenges in handling complex temporal-contextual relationships in multivariate time series forecasting.
method ARM is an enhanced multivariate LTSF architecture that employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning, Random Dropping, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing.
result ARM outperforms vanilla Transformers on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs.
New null distance bounds confirm Big Bang singularity in cosmological models.
problem Understanding the geometry of spacetime near Big Bang singularities.
method Developed a new null distance metric for temporal functions and applied it to cosmological models.
result Null distance is bounded by a constant multiple of Riemannian distance on level sets with constant gradient norm.
dCMF models evolving patterns in multiway data with temporal dynamics.
problem Capturing evolving patterns in multiway datasets with temporal dependencies.
method Time-aware coupled factorization model constrained by LDS structure.
result dCMF outperforms alternatives in capturing complex dynamics.
FLUID uses flows to unify filtering and smoothing for complex systems.
problem Bayesian filtering and smoothing for high-dimensional nonlinear systems.
method FLUID encodes observation histories into a fixed summary statistic, using flows for filtering and smoothing.
result FLUID provides accurate approximations of filtering and smoothing distributions.
The paper proposes a new method for clustering survival data using smoothed log-hazard trajectories.
problem Clustering survival data based on instantaneous risk dynamics.
method Functional Principal Component Analysis applied to B-spline smoothed log-hazard trajectories.
result The proposed method provides an interpretable representation of relative temporal risk dynamics.
Solutions to the wave equation on de Sitter-Schwarzschild space with smooth initial data on a Cauchy surface are shown to decay exponentially to a constant at temporal infinity, with corresponding uniform decay on the appropriately compactified space.
Geroch's theorem about the splitting of globally hyperbolic spacetimes is a central result in global Lorentzian Geometry. Nevertheless, this result was obtained at a topological level, and the possibility to obtain a metric (or, at least, smooth) version has been controversial since its publication in 1970. In fact, th…
Proposes DILATE and STRIPE++ for precise time series forecasting.
problem Non-stationary signals with sudden changes.
method Incorporates shape and temporal criteria in deep learning models.
result Improves precision in deterministic and probabilistic forecasting.
A new framework for averaging spatio-temporal signals using optimal transport and soft alignments.
problem Averaging complex datasets with time and spatial components.
method Inspired by DTW, OT, and UOT, a new loss function is proposed to address shifts in time, space, and population size.
result The proposed loss function can be used to compute spatio-temporal barycenters efficiently.
Develops state-space deep Gaussian processes for irregular signals.
problem Solving deep Gaussian process regression problems for irregular signals/functions.
method Represent DGPs as SDEs, solve using state-space filtering and smoothing methods.
result Rich class of priors compatible with irregular signals/functions.
Unified model forecasts epidemics with spatial and temporal dynamics.
problem Limited accuracy in traditional models and lack of interpretability in deep learning models.
method CSTGNN integrates Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks.
result Effective spatiotemporal epidemic forecasting with interpretability.
TNC learns time series representations by leveraging temporal neighborhoods.
problem Complex, unlabeled time series data.
method Temporal Neighborhood Coding (TNC) with a debiased contrastive objective.
result TNC outperforms other unsupervised methods in time series clustering and classification.
Smooth neural TPPs using B-splines for better efficiency and accuracy.
problem Efficiently modeling sequences of events in continuous time with neural networks.
method Directly parametrize the CIF as a non-negative combination of B-spline basis functions, predicting coefficients with a neural network.
result Improved computational efficiency and predictive accuracy compared to existing methods.
Stochastic networks are a plausible representation of the relational information among entities in dynamic systems such as living cells or social communities. While there is a rich literature in estimating a static or temporally invariant network from observation data, little has been done toward estimating time-varyin…
LVTINO improves high-definition video restoration with consistent temporal details.
problem Restoring high-definition video with fine spatial detail and temporal consistency.
method LVTINO uses Video Consistency Models to bypass frame-by-frame image-based LDMs, achieving perceptual quality and computational efficiency.
result Significant perceptual improvements over current methods, achieving state-of-the-art quality with minimal evaluations.
A simple GI loss improves temporal generalization without complex methods.
problem Temporal drift between train and test distributions in evolving data.
method Gradient Interpolation (GI) loss to regularize temporal complexity.
result GI loss outperforms complex methods on real-world datasets.
CT-OT Flow estimates continuous-time dynamics from discrete snapshots.
problem Estimating continuous-time dynamics from temporally aggregated snapshots with noisy or uncertain timestamps.
method Two-stage framework: aligning neighboring intervals via partial optimal transport (POT) and reconstructing a continuous-time distribution through temporal kernel smoothing.
result Reduces distributional and trajectory errors compared with existing methods across synthetic and real datasets.
Neuroscientific studies of drawing-like movements usually analyze neural representation of either geometric (eg. direction, shape) or temporal (eg. speed) features of trajectories rather than trajectory's representation as a whole. This work is about empirically supported mathematical ideas behind splitting and merging…
New method estimates treatment effects over time for survival data, improving accuracy and smoothness.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time for survival data with left truncation and right censoring.
method surv-iTMLE, a targeted learning procedure for estimating conditional survival probabilities.
result surv-iTMLE outperforms existing methods in bias and smoothness of time-varying effect estimates.
We propose and analyze a novel framework for learning sparse representations, based on two statistical techniques: kernel smoothing and marginal regression. The proposed approach provides a flexible framework for incorporating feature similarity or temporal information present in data sets, via non-parametric kernel sm…
Spatio-temporal point process models play a central role in the analysis of spatially distributed systems in several disciplines. Yet, scalable inference remains computa- tionally challenging both due to the high resolution modelling generally required and the analytically intractable likelihood function. Here, we expl…
KOMET identifies Koopman operators from model parameter trajectories to adapt to evolving data distributions.
problem Adaptation of parametric models to non-stationary environments.
method Data-driven framework using Koopman operator identification and Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD).
result KOMET achieves high autonomous-rollout accuracies of 0.981 to 1.000 over 100 time steps on various drifting datasets.
This paper proposes a new algorithm for learning guidance rewards in RL.
problem Long-term temporal credit assignment in sparse or delayed reward environments.
method Surrogate RL objective with trajectory-space smoothing to learn guidance rewards.
result Guidance rewards can be learned without additional neural networks and have intuitive interpretation.
Next-generation sequencing (NGS) to profile temporal changes in living systems is gaining more attention for deriving better insights into the underlying biological mechanisms compared to traditional static sequencing experiments. Nonetheless, the majority of existing statistical tools for analyzing NGS data lack the c…
Hybrid model improves geopolitical conflict forecasting.
problem Forecasting geopolitical events from sparse, bursty data.
method Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) + Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP).
result Consistently outperforms standalone TFT in long-range horizons.
VQ-BNN speeds up BNN inference for data streams.
problem High computational cost of BNN inference for data streams.
method Approximates BNN inference by predicting NN only once and using temporal exponential smoothing of recent predictions.
result VQ-BNN performs faster than BNNs while estimating comparable results.