Model predicts travel time under rare conditions using a vector-space model.
problem Predicting travel time under rare temporal conditions (e.g., holidays, school vacations) is challenging due to limited historical data and other temporal changes.
method Presented a vector-space model for encoding rare temporal conditions, allowing coherent representation learning across different conditions.
result Increased performance for travel time prediction over different baselines when using the vector-space encoding for representing the temporal setting.
A framework uses deep learning for spatio-temporal data prediction.
problem Interpolation of continuous spatio-temporal fields on irregular points.
method Decomposes spatio-temporal processes into products of basis functions and spatial coefficients.
result Effectiveness in reconstructing coherent spatio-temporal fields.
We model GitHub interactions as a temporal knowledge graph for software engineering questions.
problem Insufficient performance of existing temporal models on extrapolated queries and time prediction.
method Introduced an extension to current temporal models using relative temporal information.
result Improved performance on extrapolated queries and time prediction.
Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments …
Due to the dynamic nature, chaotic time series are difficult predict. In conventional signal processing approaches signals are treated either in time or in space domain only. Spatio-temporal analysis of signal provides more advantages over conventional uni-dimensional approaches by harnessing the information from both …
Study compares deep learning models for volatility prediction using multivariate data.
problem Predicting volatility using multivariate data.
method Evaluated multiple deep learning models including MLP, RNN, TCN, and Temporal Fusion Transformer.
result Temporal Fusion Transformer and TCN variants outperform classical models and shallow networks.
HRTPP improves TPP interpretability and accuracy in medical event modeling.
problem Lack of interpretability in TPPs for medical event sequences.
method Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP) integrating temporal logic rules and numerical features.
result HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in predictive performance and clinical interpretability.
HopCPT improves conformal prediction for time series with temporal dependencies.
problem Uncertainty quantification in time series data.
method HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that leverages temporal dependencies.
result HopCPT outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple real-world time series datasets.
Develops a hybrid deep learning model for stock price prediction.
problem Predicting daily stock prices in the stock market.
method Representation learning with Stock2Vec embedding and temporal convolutional layers.
result Achieves better performance on stock price prediction than benchmarks.
New algorithm predicts spatio-temporal events with improved accuracy.
problem Non-stationary spatio-temporal prediction on dense and sparse sequences.
method Probabilistic approach using point processes and self-organizing decision trees.
result Significant performance improvements over baseline and state-of-the-art methods.
Framework for dynamic node embeddings from graph streams.
problem Temporal prediction-based applications using graph stream data.
method ε-graph time-series representation, temporal reachability graphs, weighted temporal summary graphs.
result Dynamic embedding methods achieve better predictive performance.
A new method for predicting uncertainties in stream networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spatiotemporal graphs with directional flow constraints.
method Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI) integrating network topology and temporal dynamics.
result STACI effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing methods.
TATD predicts missing entries in time-evolving tensors by exploiting temporal dependency and sparsity.
problem Predict missing entries in time-evolving tensors with temporal dependency and sparsity issues.
method TATD (Time-Aware Tensor Decomposition) integrates temporal dependency and time-varying sparsity through a smoothing regularization with Gaussian kernel and alternating optimization.
result TATD achieves state-of-the-art accuracy for decomposing temporal tensors.
Flow prediction (e.g., crowd flow, traffic flow) with features of spatial-temporal is increasingly investigated in AI research field. It is very challenging due to the complicated spatial dependencies between different locations and dynamic temporal dependencies among different time intervals. Although measurements of …
New model predicts travel demand uncertainty with high accuracy.
problem Uncertainty and sparsity in sparse travel demand prediction.
method Spatial-Temporal Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Graph Neural Network (STZINB-GNN).
result STZINB-GNN outperforms benchmarks in predicting travel demand uncertainty.
In this work, we present a method for node embedding in temporal graphs. We propose an algorithm that learns the evolution of a temporal graph's nodes and edges over time and incorporates this dynamics in a temporal node embedding framework for different graph prediction tasks. We present a joint loss function that cre…
A new tensor-based method for predicting temporal relationships in knowledge bases.
problem Predicting temporal relationships in evolving knowledge bases.
method Tensor decomposition of order 4 with new regularization schemes.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in temporal link prediction.
Multivariate time series prediction has applications in a wide variety of domains and is considered to be a very challenging task, especially when the variables have correlations and exhibit complex temporal patterns, such as seasonality and trend. Many existing methods suffer from strong statistical assumptions, numer…
The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.
problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.
Model improves mortgage credit risk prediction with spatio-temporal machine learning.
problem Improving accuracy of default probabilities and loan portfolio loss distributions in mortgage credit risk.
method Combines tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model.
result Predictive models outperform conventional methods due to non-linear and spatio-temporal effects.
We consider the general problem of modeling temporal data with long-range dependencies, wherein new observations are fully or partially predictable based on temporally-distant, past observations. A sufficiently powerful temporal model should separate predictable elements of the sequence from unpredictable elements, exp…
This paper proposes a new method for an optimized mapping of temporal variables, describing a temporal stream data, into the recently proposed NeuCube spiking neural network architecture. This optimized mapping extends the use of the NeuCube, which was initially designed for spatiotemporal brain data, to work on arbitr…
DGRCL integrates dynamic and static graph relations for financial market prediction.
problem Capturing the evolving nature of stock markets while considering both temporal changes and static relational structures.
method Dynamic Graph Representation with Contrastive Learning (DGRCL) framework, including Embedding Enhancement (EE) and Contrastive Constrained Training (CCT) modules.
result DGRCL significantly outperforms state-of-the-art TGL baselines on NASDAQ and NYSE datasets.
New neural networks model for spatio-temporal data.
problem Building a mapping from spatially encoded time series covariates to real-valued response data.
method Proposed two novel extensions of Functional Neural Network (FNN) for spatio-temporal regression.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in handling varying spatial correlations through comprehensive simulation studies.
Proposes FairDRL-ST for fair spatio-temporal mobility prediction.
problem Fairness concerns in spatio-temporal AI applications.
method Disentangled representation learning, adversarial learning.
result Achieves fairness in spatio-temporal mobility prediction without performance loss.
Modeling solar ramping events with spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Predicting solar ramping events influenced by weather conditions.
method Novel spatio-temporal categorical point process model.
result Effective modeling of spatio-temporal correlations in solar ramping events.
TSAM predicts directed temporal links using GCN and self-attention.
problem Predicting links in directed temporal networks.
method GCN, self-attention mechanism, autoencoder architecture, graph attentional layers, graph convolutional layers, graph recurrent unit layer.
result TSAM outperforms benchmarks on four realistic networks.
Study predicts room occupancy using machine learning, achieving high accuracy.
problem Efficient room occupancy management for energy conservation.
method Leveraged diverse machine learning models, focusing on Random Forest.
result Random Forest model achieved highest predictive accuracy.
Spatio-temporal data is intrinsically high dimensional, so unsupervised modeling is only feasible if we can exploit structure in the process. When the dynamics are local in both space and time, this structure can be exploited by splitting the global field into many lower-dimensional "light cones". We review light cone …
Taxi demand prediction is an important building block to enabling intelligent transportation systems in a smart city. An accurate prediction model can help the city pre-allocate resources to meet travel demand and to reduce empty taxis on streets which waste energy and worsen the traffic congestion. With the increasing…
Paper uses HGNN to predict stock types from relationships and temporal data.
problem Predicting stock types from complex market data.
method Integrates stock relationships and temporal data using HGNN.
result Effective prediction of stock types with HGNN model.
Proposes DR-ACI for causal effect intervals with temporal dependence.
problem Causal effect intervals under temporal dependence.
method Doubly robust adaptive conformal inference (DR-ACI).
result Constructs prediction intervals for causal effects.
We are now witnessing the increasing availability of event stream data, i.e., a sequence of events with each event typically being denoted by the time it occurs and its mark information (e.g., event type). A fundamental problem is to model and predict such kind of marked temporal dynamics, i.e., when the next event wil…
Proposes a dynamic model for urban traffic volume prediction.
problem Urban traffic volume prediction for better traffic management and driver planning.
method Combines bidirectional LSTM, attention mechanism, and external features.
result Improves prediction precision by 3-7 percent on NYC-Taxi and NYC-Bike datasets.
Improved incremental sequence classification with temporal consistency.
problem Updating predictions as new sequence elements are revealed.
method Temporal-difference learning and a temporal-consistency condition for successive predictions.
result Optimizing a novel loss function improves data efficiency and predictive accuracy.
New framework predicts urban traffic with high accuracy.
problem Urban traffic prediction challenges.
method Interpretable attention-based neural network combining multiple modules.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives.
Electronic records contain sequences of events, some of which take place all at once in a single visit, and others that are dispersed over multiple visits, each with a different timestamp. We postulate that fine temporal detail, e.g., whether a series of blood tests are completed at once or in rapid succession should n…
We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we develop a localized spatio-temporal covariance model of the process that can capture s…
A new method for embedding temporal relationships in graphs.
problem Limited performance of existing time-aware graph embedding methods.
method Integrates temporal smoothness and task-oriented negative sampling.
result Improves performance in various tasks, especially entity/relationship/temporal scoping prediction.
Split conformal prediction works well for time series despite temporal dependence.
problem Uncertainty quantification for time series predictions with past data.
method Split conformal prediction method for time series data with predictors having memory.
result Theoretical bounds on coverage probability for split conformal prediction in time series with memory.
As one of the important functions of the intelligent transportation system (ITS), supply-demand prediction for autonomous vehicles provides a decision basis for its control. In this paper, we present two prediction models (i.e. ARLP model and Advanced ARLP model) based on two system environments that only the current d…
Spatial-temporal prediction is a fundamental problem for constructing smart city, which is useful for tasks such as traffic control, taxi dispatching, and environmental policy making. Due to data collection mechanism, it is common to see data collection with unbalanced spatial distributions. For example, some cities ma…
DeepSIP predicts network failures' impact using CNN from syslog and traffic data.
problem Predicting service impact from network failures.
method Temporal multimodal CNN for predicting time to recovery and traffic loss.
result DeepSIP reduced prediction error by approximately 50%.
New model predicts video sequences with latent dynamics.
problem Predicting video sequences with inherent uncertainty.
method Introduces a novel stochastic temporal model with latent dynamics.
result Latent model outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods.
The data in many disciplines such as social networks, web analysis, etc. is link-based, and the link structure can be exploited for many different data mining tasks. In this paper, we consider the problem of temporal link prediction: Given link data for times 1 through T, can we predict the links at time T+1? If our da…
DeepONets enhance spatial-temporal surrogates for structural dynamics.
problem Creating full spatial-temporal surrogates for dynamical systems under uncertainty.
method Proposed Full-Field Extended DeepONet (FExD) to learn full solution operator across multiple degrees of freedom.
result FExD achieves superior accuracy and computational efficiency compared to other models.
ST-GCN improves rs-fMRI prediction accuracy by modeling spatio-temporal graph connectivity.
problem Existing rs-fMRI methods neglect functional connectivity or temporal dynamics.
method Spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) trained on BOLD time series.
result ST-GCN predicts gender and age more accurately than common methods.
New method predicts spatio-temporal data with short and long-range dependence.
problem Uncertainty in predicting the distribution of mixed moving average fields.
method Theory-guided machine learning approach using generalized Bayesian algorithm.
result Fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds for ensemble forecasts.