A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This review explores ML in predicting team sport outcomes, identifying successful strategies and themes.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
Hierarchical MARL learns complementary skills for team coordination.
Improved trajectory prediction for team sports using sparse outputs.
This short note is intended as a "Letter to the Editor" Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide interest: sport and money. It is apparent from the data reported and discussed b…
Technology offers new ways to measure the locations of the players and of the ball in sports. This translates to the trajectories the ball takes on the field as a result of the tactics the team applies. The challenge professionals in soccer are facing is to take the reverse path: given the trajectories of the ball is i…
Machine learning predicts US will win most Olympic medals in 2020.
We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and games in the NFL season and use them alongside statistical game data to build predic…
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limi…
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
Deep neural network predicts event ticket prices considering spatial-temporal data sparsity.
CGAs estimate team performance from data, simplifying SV computation.
New method learns time-varying home field advantage in football.
A simplified Bayesian approach for online sports rating.
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making,…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We achieve this by replacing the static parameters of a class of popular pairwise-compari…
AI benchmarks evaluate football team performance using generative models.
The availability of massive data about sports activities offers nowadays the opportunity to quantify the relation between performance and success. In this study, we analyze more than 6,000 games and 10 million events in six European leagues and investigate this relation in soccer competitions. We discover that a team's…
SoccerCPD detects tactical changes in soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data.
Researchers create a framework to value player actions in CSGO.
Given a measurement graph and an unknown signal , we investigate algorithms for recovering from pairwise measurements of the form ; . This problem arises in a variety of applications, such as ranking teams in sports data and time synchronization of distribute…
A new model predicts race places using changeover-times and log-normal distributions.
Dynamic paired comparison models, such as Elo and Glicko, are frequently used for sports prediction and ranking players or teams. We present an alternative dynamic paired comparison model which uses a Gaussian Process (GP) as a prior for the time dynamics rather than the Markovian dynamics usually assumed. In addition,…
We generalize Mallows model to learn distance metrics from data.
Technology has had an unquestionable impact on the way people watch sports. Along with this technological evolution has come a higher standard to ensure a good viewing experience for the casual sports fan. It can be argued that the pervasion of statistical analysis in sports serves to satiate the fan's desire for detai…
The paper analyzes sports commentary to automatically recognize events and extract insights.
Inefficient markets allow investors to consistently outperform the market. To demonstrate that inefficiencies exist in sports betting markets, we created a betting algorithm that generates above market returns for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, and WNBA betting markets. To formulate our betting strategy, we collected and …
New method ranks competitors from multiple types of comparisons.
This paper optimizes sports betting strategies using neural networks and portfolio theory.
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
GNNRank uses neural networks to learn global rankings from competition match data.
Boosting as gradient descent algorithms is one popular method in machine learning. In this paper a novel Boosting-type algorithm is proposed based on restricted gradient descent with structural sparsity control whose underlying dynamics are governed by differential inclusions. In particular, we present an iterative reg…
Wearables like smartwatches which are embedded with sensors and powerful processors, provide a strong platform for development of analytics solutions in sports domain. To analyze players' games, while motion sensor based shot detection has been extensively studied in sports like Tennis, Golf, Baseball; Table Tennis and…
Paper simplifies complex sports analytics models for better understanding.
A number of applications (e.g., AI bot tournaments, sports, peer grading, crowdsourcing) use pairwise comparison data and the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model to evaluate a given collection of items (e.g., bots, teams, students, search results). Past work has shown that under the BTL model, the widely-used maximum-likeli…
In this work we present STEVE - Soccer TEam VEctors, a principled approach for learning real valued vectors for soccer teams where similar teams are close to each other in the resulting vector space. STEVE only relies on freely available information about the matches teams played in the past. These vectors can serve as…
Blockchain fan tokens boost sports fan engagement by 50%.
Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games are among the most played digital games in the world. In these games, teams of players fight against each other in arena environments, and the gameplay is focused on tactical combat. Mastering MOBAs requires extensive practice, as is exemplified in the popular MOBA Defence o…
In this paper, we employ machine learning techniques to analyze seventeen seasons (1999-2000 to 2015-2016) of NBA regular season data from every team to determine the common characteristics among NBA playoff teams. Each team was characterized by 26 predictor variables and one binary response variable taking on a value …
New algorithm for identifying Condorcet team in noisy comparisons.
Esports have become major international sports with hundreds of millions of spectators. Esports games generate massive amounts of telemetry data. Using these to predict the outcome of esports matches has received considerable attention, but micro-predictions, which seek to predict events inside a match, is as yet unkno…
Paper learns skill distributions from game outcomes, proving minimax optimality.
Attackers can significantly reduce team rewards in cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning.
Paper studies competitive networks where teams aim to minimize their own objectives, adapting to each other's strategies.
The paper sorts big data by revealed preferences, improving consumer and policy decisions.
Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as well as the growth of machine learning methods for use in sports analytics. Of par…
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
Human-AI teaming suffers from calibration issues.