Uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems
problem Uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems
method Discussing sources of uncertainty, their nature, and task-specific objectives
result Identifying the types of uncertainty needed for dynamical systems
Neural networks simplify uncertainty quantification of locally nonlinear systems.
problem Estimating statistics of responses in large-scale locally nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Decomposes response into nominal linear system and a neural network-estimated pseudoforce.
result Neural networks can efficiently estimate pseudoforce containing nonlinear and uncertain information.
New method combines ODE filters and numerical quadrature to propagate model uncertainty.
problem Propagation of model uncertainty in ODE solutions with uncertain parameters.
method Combining ODE filters with numerical quadrature.
result Effective propagation of both numerical and parametric uncertainty.
Bayesian ANN method predicts chaotic systems with uncertainty.
problem Estimating chaotic dynamical systems from noisy data.
method Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks for ODE inverse problems.
result Accurate time predictions and uncertainty bounds.
Fair ML systems can be safe ML systems by considering uncertainty.
problem Safety of data-driven decision systems is often neglected.
method Viewing ML systems as socio-technical, uncertainty-aware modeling.
result Fair models should be uncertainty-aware, e.g. through distributional regression.
Study examines how uncertainty visualization affects analyst trust in automated classification systems.
problem The impact of uncertainty on analyst trust in automated classification systems.
method Empirical study evaluating different active learning query policies and visualizations.
result Query policy significantly influences analyst trust in automated classification systems.
Proposes UICR to improve novelty in recommendation systems without sacrificing relevance.
problem Balancing relevance and novelty in recommendation systems is challenging, especially for long-tail items.
method Introduces uncertainty modeling in the matching stage and multi-task modeling of model and index uncertainty.
result Improves novelty without sacrificing relevance, as shown by experimental results and online A/B tests.
The paper introduces a new metric to quantify uncertainty's impact on multiple objectives.
problem Quantifying the impact of uncertainty on multiple objectives in complex systems.
method Proposes the mean multi-objective cost of uncertainty (multi-objective MOCU) to quantify uncertainty.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the multi-objective MOCU in real-world applications.
We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty. We propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from (conditioned on) past…
We report on time-varying network connectedness within three banking systems: North America, the EU, and ASEAN. The original method by Diebold and Yilmaz is improved by using exponentially weighted daily returns and ridge regularization on vector autoregression (VAR) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). We…
SDE-Net quantifies uncertainty in deep nets using stochastic dynamics.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks.
method Viewing DNN transformations as state evolution of a stochastic dynamical system, introducing a Brownian motion term for epistemic uncertainty.
result SDE-Net outperforms existing methods in uncertainty estimation across various tasks.
REN addresses uncertainty in user feedbacks for better recommendation systems.
problem Recurrent neural networks focus solely on item relevance, neglecting diverse item exploration.
method Proposes REN, a new type of recurrent neural network that balances relevance and exploration while accounting for representation uncertainty.
result REN achieves satisfactory long-term rewards on synthetic and real-world recommendation datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art models.
The paper quantifies and attributes uncertainty in complex system simulations.
problem Uncertainty in complex system simulations due to unknown or approximated subprocesses.
method Developed a framework for quantifying and attributing submodel uncertainty using bootstrapping, Bayesian model averaging, and tree-based methods.
result Individual submodels contribute to overall uncertainty, and their importance can be quantified.
DeepONet accelerates reliability analysis of stochastic nonlinear systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with stochastic forcing.
method DeepONet, a novel operator network, learns function-to-function mappings.
result DeepONet efficiently and accurately predicts system responses.
Bayesian inference for neural networks improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman filter extensions and interacting particle systems.
result Effective methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
Paper detects adversarial speech inputs with high accuracy.
problem Adversarial attacks on ASR systems.
method Uncertainty quantification using neural networks.
result Detection accuracy of adversarial inputs over 0.99.
Paper proposes a new model to assess risks in energy storage systems considering both exogenous and endogenous uncertainties.
problem Current risk assessment ignores the stochastic nature of energy storage availability.
method Data-driven unified model with exogenous and endogenous uncertainty description for four types of generic energy storage.
result Comparative results show more severe risks for endogenous uncertainty, suggesting new strategies for system operators.
Unified control theory and machine learning for safety in uncertain systems.
problem Safety guarantees for systems with measurement model uncertainty.
method Measurement-Robust Control Barrier Functions (MR-CBFs) for control synthesis.
result MR-CBFs ensure safety in perception systems with measurement model uncertainty.
BSG learns dynamic network spillovers and uncertainty quantification.
problem Identifying indirect spillovers and systemic risk in dynamic networks.
method Bayesian Spillover Graphs using FEVD and Bayesian time series models.
result Significant performance gains over baselines in identifying source and sink nodes.
Paper models uncertainty in electricity and gas markets to assess its impact.
problem Addressing uncertainties in coupled electricity and gas markets.
method Integrated and stochastic optimisation approaches for large-scale energy systems.
result Quantifies the value of encoding uncertainty in models.
Study evaluates machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in complex systems.
problem Accurately quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in complex dynamical systems.
method Examined Gaussian processes, UQ-augmented neural networks (ENN, BNN, D-NN, G-NN) on two model data sets.
result Concluded on model architecture and hyperparameter tuning for improved UQ accuracy.
This paper tackles Bayesian system identification with probabilistic numerical methods.
problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data.
method Probabilistic Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) combined with probabilistic numerical integration.
result Efficient identification of latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements.
This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly general stochastic dynamics in a distribution-free manner. The new tools enjoy sound theory rooted in f…
Controller seeks informative system observations to predict nonlinear dynamics.
problem Predicting nonlinear dynamics with uncertain parameters.
method Expected free energy minimization for balancing goal state and informative observations.
result Controller improves performance in uncertain parameter scenarios.
Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to distributional mismatch between the test and training data distributions. Differe…
Recent research has considered the stochastic thermodynamics of multiple interacting systems, representing the overall system as a Bayes net. I derive fluctuation theorems governing the entropy production (EP)of arbitrary sets of the systems in such a Bayes net. I also derive ``conditional'' fluctuation theorems, gover…
A new method reduces Volterra kernel complexity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in modeling nonlinear systems with Volterra series due to high model order.
method Bayesian Tensor Network Volterra kernel machines (BTN-V) using canonical polyadic decomposition.
result Competitive accuracy, enhanced uncertainty quantification, and reduced computational cost.
Bayesian method identifies dynamical models with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in selecting governing equations for dynamical systems.
method Bayesian sparse identification with model averaging.
result Accurately recovers sparse interaction structures with uncertainty quantification.
This work tackles uncertainty in multi-agent multi-modal trajectory forecasting.
problem Measuring and ranking uncertainty in multi-agent multi-modal trajectory forecasting.
method Proposes collaborative uncertainty (CU) and a CU-aware regression framework.
result The CU-aware regression framework improves SOTA systems' performances.
Defense against ASR attacks using dropout uncertainty.
problem Adversarial attacks on ASR systems.
method Dropout uncertainty in neural networks.
result High detection accuracy across various ASR systems and datasets.
The paper proposes a new framework for accurate uncertainty representation and propagation.
problem Inaccurate representation and propagation of uncertainty in measurement systems.
method The paper introduces a comprehensive framework using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for representing and propagating quantitative attributes in measurement systems.
result GMMs offer improved accuracy in representing and propagating measurement uncertainty compared to traditional Gaussian methods, while maintaining computational tractability.
New method reduces uncertainty in AI-driven Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Epistemic uncertainty in AI surrogate models affects Monte Carlo sampling outcomes.
method Penalty Ensemble Method (PEM) modifies Metropolis acceptance rule to increase rejection probability in uncertain regions.
result PEM enhances reliability of Monte Carlo simulations by reducing uncertainty propagation.
We can overcome uncertainty with uncertainty. Using randomness in our choices and in what we control, and hence in the decision making process, could potentially offset the uncertainty inherent in the environment and yield better outcomes. The example we develop in greater detail is the news-vendor inventory management…
Paper uses deep learning to model systems with degrading behavior.
problem Modeling systems with degrading hysteretic behavior and uncertainty.
method Uses low-fidelity data to train a deep operator network (DeepONet).
result Improves prediction error in degrading hysteretic systems with uncertainty.
Probabilistic SR method speeds up high-fidelity simulations with reliable uncertainty estimates.
problem Lack of reliable uncertainty quantification in deep-learning based SR methods.
method Statistical Finite Element Method and energy-based generative modeling.
result Efficient high-resolution predictions with inherent uncertainty estimates.
BLADE uses Bayesian methods to discover complex systems from scarce data.
problem Efficiently discovering governing equations of complex dynamical systems from limited data.
method Combines replica-exchange stochastic gradient Langevin Monte Carlo with active learning.
result Reduces measurement requirements by 60% for Lotka-Volterra and 40% for Burgers' equation.
Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric ensemble (BNE) approach that augments an existing ens…
We develop a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing for discrete-time markets with proportional transaction costs and model uncertainty. A robust notion of no-arbitrage of the second kind is defined and shown to be equivalent to the existence of a collection of strictly consistent price systems.
Paper improves uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge systems.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge frameworks.
method Generalised probabilistic modelling and improved uncertainty estimates.
result Proposed uncertainty estimates significantly improve system efficiency.
Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such computationally intensive simulations must be run. We show that deep neural networks can be …
Comparison of UQ methods in deep learning for a simple physical system.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning for physical systems.
method Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), Deep Ensembles (DE), and Analytic Error Propagation.
result Pitfalls in using UQ methods, especially Bayesian Neural Networks and Concrete Dropout.
A new reward shaping method balances learning efficiency and effectiveness for robot manipulation.
problem Efficient and effective learning in robot manipulations with system uncertainty.
method Dense2Sparse reward shaping method combining dense and sparse rewards.
result Dense2Sparse method achieves higher expected reward and better system uncertainty tolerance.
Bayesian deep learning tackles uncertainty in high-dimensional systems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic partial differential equations.
method Bayesian neural network (BNN) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) for efficient sampling of posterior distributions.
result The method efficiently handles high-dimensional problems with almost independent computational cost.
Unified Bayesian framework for LTV system identification using neural networks and Gaussian Processes.
problem Identifying Linear Time-Varying systems from input-output data.
method Bayesian modeling of impulse response as a stochastic process, using neural networks and Gaussian Processes for inference.
result Framework can infer LTI system properties from a single noisy input-output pair, achieving lower error than classical methods.
Bayesian framework for identifying localized regions of interest in dynamical systems.
problem Identifying regions of high-resolution uncertainty quantification in complex dynamical systems.
method Bayesian inference with Gaussian process surrogate and polynomial chaos expansion.
result Unified computational scheme reduces overall cost for uncertainty quantification.
Unified deep sequential and state-space models for robust option pricing with uncertainty.
problem Combining robustness to noise and uncertainty measurement in option pricing models.
method Unscattered reservoir smoother (URS) integrating deep sequential and state-space models.
result URS achieves competitive forecasting accuracy and uncertainty measurement in noisy datasets.
MCU-Net combines U-Net and Monte Carlo Dropout for uncertainty in medical image segmentation.
problem Lack of uncertainty representation in deep learning methods for patient-centered healthcare decisions.
method MCU-Net framework using U-Net and Monte Carlo Dropout with four uncertainty metrics.
result MCU-Net maximizes automated performance and refers truly uncertain cases.
Bayesian framework for robust model discovery from noisy data.
problem Robust model discovery from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear systems.
method Bayesian differential programming using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and sparsity-promoting priors.
result Efficient inference of posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty.