Cold-start PV forecasting uses synthetic histories to train time-series foundation models.
problem Cold-start PV forecasting
method Zero-shot pipeline with synthetic histories
result TabPFN-TS achieves the lowest error under Real Feedback strategy
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “synthetic history”
Combining deep learning and ensemble smoothers for better history matching.
problem Dealing with complex facies distributions in history matching.
method Using autoencoders and generative adversarial networks to parameterize facies models, applying distance-based localization.
result Improved history matching performance with deep learning parameterizations.
Rhino learns causal relationships from time series data with history-dependent noise.
problem Discovering causal relationships from time series data with non-linear relations, instantaneous effects, and history-dependent noise.
method Combines vector auto-regression, deep learning, and variational inference.
result Demonstrates better causal relationship discovery performance compared to baselines.
Deep Learning Framework for History Matching CO2 Storage with 4D Seismic and Monitoring Well Datacs.LG
Deep learning calibrates CO2 storage formations from seismic and well data.
problem Uncertainty in CO2 storage formation properties.
method Two deep learning models for well and seismic data, integrated into MCMC history matching.
result Significant uncertainty reduction in key parameters and accurate CO2 plume predictions.
Novel PCA method for high-dimensional inverse problems.
problem Optimizing large-scale random fields with gradient information.
method Gradient-Sensitive Principal Component Analysis (Gradient-SPCA) that modifies PCA using objective function gradients.
result Improvements in encoding quality for objective function minimization and field distribution.
Transformer RL optimizes A/B testing for time series experiments.
problem Challenges in applying A/B testing to time series experiments, especially with limited history and strong assumptions.
method Transformer reinforcement learning approach that conditions allocation on full history and optimizes MSE without restrictive assumptions.
result Consistently outperforms existing designs in synthetic, simulator, and real-world data.
Study constructs balanced datasets for seismic failure prediction.
problem Imbalanced datasets limit machine learning performance in seismic failure prediction.
method Framework with three steps: GMF identification, probability density estimation, and sample transformation.
result Framework improves machine learning performance in seismic failure mode prediction.
Generates realistic stock market order streams using GANs.
problem Creating high-fidelity stock market data.
method Conditional Wasserstein GAN with auction mechanism and order-book augmentation.
result Generated data is close to real market data.
A Mechanism for Pockets of Predictability in Complex Adaptive Systemscond-mat.stat-mech
We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability (``prediction days''), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history. We demonstrate and test it out-of-sample on synthetic minority and majority game…
The literature about history matching is vast and despite the impressive number of methods proposed and the significant progresses reported in the last decade, conditioning reservoir models to dynamic data is still a challenging task. Ensemble-based methods are among the most successful and efficient techniques current…
The calibration of a reservoir model with observed transient data of fluid pressures and rates is a key task in obtaining a predictive model of the flow and transport behaviour of the earth's subsurface. The model calibration task, commonly referred to as "history matching", can be formalised as an ill-posed inverse pr…
Proposes a method for explaining tabular data using copulas.
problem Lack of ground truth for explainability in complex datasets.
method Uses copulas to specify statistical properties and build intuition.
result Demonstrates improved explainability on logistic regression and correlation use cases.
We propose a bandit algorithm that explores by randomizing its history of rewards. Specifically, it pulls the arm with the highest mean reward in a non-parametric bootstrap sample of its history with pseudo rewards. We design the pseudo rewards such that the bootstrap mean is optimistic with a sufficiently high probabi…
This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and identifiability in prediction market outcomes from price-volume histories.
method Formulates prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems, introduces a log-odds observation model, and derives posterior uncertainty quantification and identifiability criteria.
result Explicit diagnostics for informative and stable inference regimes, and validation through synthetic data experiments.
Bayesian inference over admissible histories leads to irreversible kinetics.
problem Modeling irreversible processes in systems with uncertain histories.
method A Gibbs-type measure weighted by energy-dissipation action and observation constraints, interpreted as a Bayesian posterior.
result The measure concentrates on maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) histories, recovering classical deterministic evolution.
HS-FNO models non-Markovian PDEs by learning history and future states.
problem Non-Markovian dynamics where future states depend on past history.
method History-Space Fourier Neural Operator (HS-FNO) for delay and memory-driven PDEs.
result HS-FNO achieves lowest aggregate errors across various PDE families.
Affine surface areamath.DG
Overview of affine surface area and its history.
problem None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
method None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
result None explicitly stated; focuses on overview.
A variety of methods existing for generating synthetic electronic health records (EHRs), but they are not capable of generating unstructured text, like emergency department (ED) chief complaints, history of present illness or progress notes. Here, we use the encoder-decoder model, a deep learning algorithm that feature…
The Volterra signaturestat.ML
Volterra signature provides a clear, interpretable feature for history-dependent systems.
problem Learning from non-Markovian time series with implicit memory mechanisms.
method Develops Volterra signature as a tensor algebra representation weighted by a temporal kernel, proving injectivity and universal approximation.
result Volterra signature leads to linear functionals and universal approximation, improving dynamic learning tasks.
Survey on DDVV-type inequalities, their history, and recent developments.
problem None explicitly stated; focuses on surveying existing work.
method None explicitly stated; focuses on surveying existing work.
result Survey of DDVV-type inequalities and their history and recent developments.
We present and prove properties of a new offline policy evaluator for an exploration learning setting which is superior to previous evaluators. In particular, it simultaneously and correctly incorporates techniques from importance weighting, doubly robust evaluation, and nonstationary policy evaluation approaches. In a…
SRMC framework reduces Monte Carlo variance by history-based sampling in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Efficient sampling in high-dimensional discrete or continuous state spaces.
method Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes history through running average of score evaluations.
result Improves estimator variance and mode coverage with constant memory usage.
Paper analyzes history-based RL methods for MDPs, introduces a theoretical framework and practical algorithm.
problem Improving RL performance in MDPs using history-based features.
method Theoretical framework for history-based RL, practical algorithm design.
result Practical RL algorithm shows effectiveness on continuous control tasks.
Neural networks improve cancer risk prediction from family history data.
problem Improving cancer risk prediction from family history data using machine learning.
method Developed and trained neural network models on large pedigrees to predict hereditary cancers.
result Neural networks can achieve nearly optimal prediction performance and outperform traditional models in misreported data.
The paper explains why estimating a history-dependent policy can reduce MSE in reinforcement learning.
problem Understanding why history-dependent policies can improve MSE in off-policy evaluation.
method The paper derives a bias-variance decomposition of MSE for various OPE estimators, showing how history-dependent policies can decrease variance and increase bias.
result History-dependent policies can decrease the variance of importance sampling estimators, leading to lower MSE.
It is shown how the generating functional method of De Dominicis can be used to solve the dynamics of the original version of the minority game (MG), in which agents observe real as opposed to fake market histories. Here one again finds exact closed equations for correlation and response functions, but now these are de…
This paper suggests claim history will be deprecated in future auto insurance rates.
problem The role of historical claim records in auto insurance rates.
method Proposes a new risk variable elimination method and real-time road risk model design.
result Claim history will be considered a 'noise' factor and deprecated in Pay-How-You-Drive models.
History of Knot Theorymath.GT
We present in this chapter (Chapter II) the history of ideas which lead up to the development of modern knot theory. We are more detailed when pre-XX century history is reported. With more recent times we are more selective, stressing developments related to Jones type invariants of links. In the Appendix, A.Przybyszew…
Oddnet detects anomalies in dynamic networks using time series methods.
problem Detecting anomalies in temporal networks (e.g., transport, social networks).
method Feature-based network anomaly detection using time series methods.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on synthetic and real-world datasets.
New protocol evaluates synthetic data for temporal consistency.
problem Synthetic data generators can produce invalid timestamps and trajectories.
method Characterize datasets by four properties, then measure timestamp validity and dynamics.
result Temporal fidelity must be measured, not inferred from static data.
Paper tackles reinforcement learning for STL specifications with state history.
problem Learning optimal policies to satisfy STL specifications often requires too much state history, making the problem computationally intractable.
method Proposes a compact augmented state-space representation to capture state history and an approximation method to solve the objective.
result Shows the performance bound of the approximate solution and compares it with an existing technique.
In this paper we propose a new algorithm for streaming principal component analysis. With limited memory, small devices cannot store all the samples in the high-dimensional regime. Streaming principal component analysis aims to find the -dimensional subspace which can explain the most variation of the -dimensiona…
We propose an online algorithm for cumulative regret minimization in a stochastic multi-armed bandit. The algorithm adds i.i.d. pseudo-rewards to its history in round and then pulls the arm with the highest average reward in its perturbed history. Therefore, we call it perturbed-history exploration (PHE). Th…
Supervised topic models can help clinical researchers find interpretable cooccurence patterns in count data that are relevant for diagnostics. However, standard formulations of supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation have two problems. First, when documents have many more words than labels, the influence of the labels w…
We propose a new online algorithm for cumulative regret minimization in a stochastic linear bandit. The algorithm pulls the arm with the highest estimated reward in a linear model trained on its perturbed history. Therefore, we call it perturbed-history exploration in a linear bandit (LinPHE). The perturbed history is …
We give an explicit definition of decentralization and show you that decentralization is almost impossible for the current stage and Bitcoin is the first truly noncentralized currency in the currency history. We propose a new framework of noncentralized cryptocurrency system with an assumption of the existence of a wea…
Epsilon-machines are minimal, unifilar presentations of stationary stochastic processes. They were originally defined in the history machine sense, as hidden Markov models whose states are the equivalence classes of infinite pasts with the same probability distribution over futures. In analyzing synchronization, though…
SPLICE simulates incurred losses and their revisions.
problem Simulating incurred losses and their revisions in insurance.
method Continuous time simulation of individual claims with revisions over their lifetime.
result Incorporates dependencies and properties of incurred losses.
New framework handles dynamic contexts in reinforcement learning.
problem Learning in environments where contexts change over time.
method Dynamic Contextual Markov Decision Processes (DCMDPs) with logistic aggregation.
result Upper-confidence-bound style algorithm with regret bounds.
A dangerously brief history of the developments of the main ideas in economics, as observed by a physicist, is given. This was published in 'Econophysics of Stock and Other Markets', Eds. A. Chatterjee, B. K. Chakrabarti, New Economic Windows Series, Springer, Milan, 2006, pp~219-224.
Transformers improve Alzheimer's disease progression prediction by accounting for irregular biomarker histories.
problem Difficult prediction of medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression due to tied clinical scores and irregular biomarker observations.
method Developed a residual gap-aware transformer that combines statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning.
result The proposed model reduces mean error and improves prediction-observation correlation compared to baseline models.
Foundation models improve wage gap decomposition by capturing omitted career history factors.
problem Estimating wage disparities using incomplete career history data.
method Fine-tuning foundation models to mitigate omitted variable bias and estimate wage gaps.
result Foundation models can decompose gender wage gaps more accurately than traditional econometric methods.
Marden's Tameness Conjecture predicts that every hyperbolic 3-manifold with finitely generated fundamental group is homeomorphic to the interior of a compact 3-manifold. It was recently established by Agol and Calegari-Gabai. We will survey the history of work on this conjecture and discuss its many applications.
Network growth processes can be understood as generative models of the structure and history of complex networks. This point of view naturally leads to the problem of network archaeology: reconstructing all the past states of a network from its structure---a difficult permutation inference problem. In this paper, we in…
POLAR optimizes treatment strategies in dynamic settings with statistical guarantees.
problem Optimizing sequential decisions in dynamic treatment regimes with robustness and statistical guarantees.
method Pessimistic model-based approach estimating transition dynamics and incorporating uncertainty penalties.
result Offers statistical and computational guarantees, including finite-sample bounds on policy suboptimality.
A new method uses a frozen language model to improve sample efficiency in reinforcement learning.
problem Improving sample efficiency in reinforcement learning with partially observable environments.
method FROZEN Hopfield network and HELM (History Embedding Language Model) method.
result HELM achieves new state-of-the-art results on Minigrid and Procgen environments.
HDT improves MCMC on graphs with history-dependent sampling.
problem Efficient sampling from target distributions on general graphs with low computational overhead.
method History-driven target (HDT) framework that replaces the original target distribution with a history-dependent one.
result Near-zero variance performance and scalability to large graphs with memory-efficient implementation.
Study differentially private methods for learning Hawkes processes.
problem Lack of thorough analysis on sample complexity for learning Hawkes processes parameters and releasing differentially private versions.
method Developed non-private and differentially private estimators for Hawkes processes parameters.
result Obtained sample complexity results for both private and non-private settings.