The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.
problem Evaluating competency of autonomous systems in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Surprise index, a measure that quantifies system performance based on available data.
result The Surprise index can be computed for dynamic systems with Gaussian marginal distributions.
Study shows surprising cobordism distances between certain torus knots.
problem Determining cobordism distances between thin and thick torus knots.
method Analyzes locally flat cobordisms between torus knots with small and large braid indices.
result Surprising fact about torus knots as cross-sections of almost minimal cobordisms.
We establish several new stylised facts concerning the intra-day seasonalities of stock dynamics. Beyond the well known U-shaped pattern of the volatility, we find that the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the day, leading to a smaller relative dispersion between stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, t…
TradeR uses RL to execute trades in real markets, minimizing surprise and catastrophe.
problem Minimizing surprise and catastrophe in high-frequency trading.
method Hierarchical RL with energy-based surprise value function.
result TradeR outperforms in abrupt price changes and maintains profitability.
A remarkable similarity in the behavior of the US S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and of the Japanese Nikkei index from 1985 to 1992 (11 years shift) is presented, with particular emphasis on the structure of the bearish phases. Extending a previous analysis of Johansen and Sornette [1999, 2000] on the Nikkei ind…
In this paper we propose a general framework to study the quantum geometry of σ-models when they are effectively localized to small quantum fluctuations around constant maps. Such effective theories have surprising exact descriptions at all loops in terms of target geometry and can be rigorously formulated. We illust…
It has been widely observed that capitalization-weighted indexes can be beaten by surprisingly simple, systematic investment strategies. Indeed, in the U.S. stock market, equal-weighted portfolios, random-weighted portfolios, and other naive, non- optimized portfolios tend to outperform a capitalization-weighted index …
Auto-Surprise automates recommender system selection and optimization.
problem Finding the best algorithm and hyperparameters for recommender systems.
method Extends Surprise library with TPE optimization for algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning.
result Significantly faster in finding optimal hyperparameters compared to grid search.
New insights into simple kernel smoothing reveal surprising asymptotics.
problem Understanding precise asymptotics of Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing.
method Using ideas from the random energy model in statistical physics.
result Sharp asymptotics for the NW predictor on the sphere.
Unifies 18 definitions of surprise, classifies them into four categories.
problem Lack of consensus on surprise definition.
method Technical classification into three groups based on agent's belief; conceptual categorization into four types.
result Taxonomy of surprise definitions provides foundation for brain studies.
Surprise describes a range of phenomena from unexpected events to behavioral responses. We propose a measure of surprise and use it for surprise-driven learning. Our surprise measure takes into account data likelihood as well as the degree of commitment to a belief via the entropy of the belief distribution. We find th…
Surprise-based learning allows agents to rapidly adapt to non-stationary stochastic environments characterized by sudden changes. We show that exact Bayesian inference in a hierarchical model gives rise to a surprise-modulated trade-off between forgetting old observations and integrating them with the new ones. The mod…
DG separates successes and failures by gating updates with advantage and surprisal.
problem Negative learning from surprising data in distributed reinforcement learning.
method DG gates each update with the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing failures and preserving successes.
result DG outperforms other methods in various challenging reinforcement learning tasks.
The paper uses Bayesian Surprise to identify unexpected structures in indoor environments.
problem Identifying unexpected structures in indoor environments.
method Bayesian Surprise applied to Isovist Analysis of 2D floor plans.
result Surprise regions in indoor environments can be used to focus on important areas in LBS.
We study association between macroeconomic news and stock market returns using the statistical theory of copulas, and a new comprehensive measure of news based on the indexing of news wires. We find the impact of economic news on equity returns to be nonlinear and asymmetric. In particular, controlling for economic con…
Exploration in environments with continuous control and sparse rewards remains a key challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). Recently, surprise has been used as an intrinsic reward that encourages systematic and efficient exploration. We introduce a new definition of surprise and its RL implementation named Variation…
A model explains stock returns and volatility using multifractal and rough components.
problem Reconciling multifractal stock returns and rough index volatilities.
method Nested factor model with multifractal and rough volatility components.
result The model explains stock index Hurst exponents larger than individual stock exponents.
EMIX minimizes surprise in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
problem Surprise and approximation bias in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
method Energy-based MIXer (EMIX) for minimizing surprise across multiple agents.
result EMIX demonstrates consistent stable performance in challenging StarCraft II scenarios.
Derives time-averaged active inference from control principles.
problem Finite-horizon or discounted-surprise problems in active inference.
method Derives infinite-horizon, average-surprise active inference from optimal control principles.
result Unified objective functional for sensorimotor control.
DE is a new exploration method that limits resource usage based on expected improvement and surprise.
problem Limited exploration in large action spaces when resources are scarce.
method Delight-gated exploration (DE) that limits exploration actions based on a gate price set by the product of expected improvement and surprise.
result DE outperforms ε-greedy and Thompson Sampling in terms of regret across various bandit and MDP settings. Arithmetic Kontsevich-Zorich monodromy found in a specific origami surface.
problem Exploring the monodromy of a symmetric origami in genus 4.
method Analyzing the Veech group and symplectic group properties of the origami.
result Existence of arithmetic Kontsevich-Zorich monodromy in a specific origami.
Paper uses surprisal to dynamically allocate computation between fast and slow models.
problem Dynamic allocation of computation in neural networks.
method Surprisal-based dynamic model selection.
result Model can match baseline performance with 15% fewer FLOPs.
We show that reinforcement learning agents that learn by surprise (surprisal) get stuck at abrupt environmental transition boundaries because these transitions are difficult to learn. We propose a counter-intuitive solution that we call Mutual Information Minimising Exploration (MIME) where an agent learns a latent rep…
Curiosity-driven exploration using Bayesian surprise in latent space.
problem Enhance exploration capabilities in reinforcement learning.
method Apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space to favor exploration.
result Our method is computationally cheap and performs well on various tasks.
Model compresses event-like contexts using gated surprise signals.
problem Perceiving a dynamic world as organized events.
method Hierarchical, surprise-gated recurrent neural network architecture.
result Achieves best performance on multiple event processing tasks.
Paper shows pre-training and transfer learning reduce sample complexity for neural networks.
problem Training high-dimensional supervised learning with limited labeled data.
method Study of single-layer neural networks via online stochastic gradient descent, considering concept shift.
result Pre-training and transfer learning reduce sample complexity by polynomial factors under general assumptions.
In this paper, we describe a new surprising example of a fibration of the Clifford torus S3 x S3 in the 7-sphere by great 3-spheres, which is fiberwise homogeneous but whose fibers are not parallel to one another. In particular it is not part of a Hopf fibration. A fibration is fiberwise homogeneous when for any two fi…
The purpose of the present paper is to introduce and explore two surprises that arise when we apply a standard procedure to study the number of finite type invariants of 3-manifolds introduced independently by M. Goussarov and K. Habiro based on surgery on claspers, Y-graphs or clovers, \cite{Gu,Ha,GGP}. One surprise i…
Surprising circles found in Coxeter group boundaries.
problem Embedded circles in Morse boundaries of Coxeter groups.
method Analysis of Morse boundaries and defining graphs.
result Circles not arising from visible Fuchsian subgroups.
Every living organism struggles against disruptive environmental forces to carve out and maintain an orderly niche. We propose that such a struggle to achieve and preserve order might offer a principle for the emergence of useful behaviors in artificial agents. We formalize this idea into an unsupervised reinforcement …
SAE-FiRE extracts key financial info from long documents, improving earnings surprise predictions.
problem Predicting earnings surprises from long, redundant financial documents.
method Sparse Autoencoder feature selection to filter out noise and identify key dimensions.
result SAE-FiRE significantly outperforms baseline approaches in financial datasets.
A model simulates how different types of traders react to macroeconomic news.
problem Understanding how various market participants respond to macroeconomic surprises.
method Developed a calibrated data generation process (DGP) with four trader archetypes and a Monte Carlo simulation.
result Higher information and lower risk-averse traders take larger positions and achieve higher average wealth.
Bitcoin reacts negatively to inflation surprises, contrary to belief.
problem Bitcoin's ability to hedge inflation is questioned.
method Examined cryptocurrency responses to macroeconomic news announcements.
result Bitcoin's price decreases by 24 bps in response to inflationary surprises.
New framework detects near vs. far out-of-distribution samples for AI safety.
problem Binary OOD detection fails to distinguish between semantically close and distant unknown risks.
method Ternary classification based on Low-Entropy Semantic Manifolds and Semantic Surprise Vector.
result Framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on ternary OOD detection task.
Firms disclosing positive earnings surprises are more likely to disclose ESG information.
problem Transparency vs. performance in financial markets.
method Empirical analysis of earnings surprises and ESG disclosures.
result Positive earnings firms disclose more ESG information than negative earnings firms.
Proves that emergent algebras right-distributivity implies left-distributivity.
problem Proving the implication between emergent algebra distributivity conditions.
method Analyzing families of quasigroup operations indexed by commutative groups.
result Emergent algebras right-distributive imply left-distributive.
We discuss eight new(?) configuration theorems of classical projective geometry in the spirit of the Pappus and Pascal theorems.
A new k-NN algorithm using surprisal for robust and interpretable nonparametric learning.
problem Complex patterns and relationships in data without strong distribution assumptions.
method Surprisal-driven k-NN framework for classification, regression, density estimation, and anomaly detection. result State-of-the-art results in classification and anomaly detection, competitive regression results.
DIAL learns embeddings to maximize recall and accuracy for entity resolution.
problem Low resource settings for entity resolution with large Cartesian product search space.
method DIAL uses an Index-By-Committee framework with pre-trained transformer language models to jointly learn embeddings for recall and accuracy.
result DIAL achieves high precision, recall, and efficiency on benchmark datasets.
DG improves policy gradients by weighting actions with a sigmoid of advantage and surprisal.
problem Pathologies in standard policy gradients, leading to poor updates and over-allocation of gradient budget.
method Introduces Delightful Policy Gradient (DG) that gates each term with a sigmoid of advantage and surprisal.
result DG provably improves directional accuracy in a single context and shifts the expected gradient closer to the oracle across multiple contexts.
Model financial markets using information theory with a single parameter.
problem Capture the complexity of financial markets with a simple model.
method Derive an idealized model based on four information-theoretic assumptions, minimizing surprisal and divergence.
result The model uses squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes for state variables and their sums.
The study explores how agents learn and adapt preferences in dynamic environments.
problem Adaptive behavior and preference learning in reinforcement learning tasks.
method The approach involves self-supervised learning of preferences, distinguishing between environmental and intrinsic observations, and evaluating with model-free and model-based reinforcement learning.
result The methodology successfully minimizes surprisal and expected free energy in dynamic environments.
This paper presents an exclusive classification of the largest crashes in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SP500 and NASDAQ in the past century. Crashes are objectively defined as the top-rank filtered drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum disregarding noise fluctuations), where the …
Unified framework for analyzing neural networks in high dimensions.
problem Understanding neural networks' efficiency in high-dimensional data.
method Statistical physics techniques, including replica method and approximate message-passing algorithms.
result Unified analysis of various machine learning architectures and tasks.
Early neural networks can be simplified to linear models, revealing surprising simplicity.
problem Complexity of neural network learning dynamics.
method Formal proof and empirical verification of early-time learning dynamics of neural networks.
result Early learning dynamics of neural networks can be approximated by simple linear models.
In this article we survey, and make a few new observations about, the surprising connection between sub-monoids of mapping class groups and interesting geometry and topology in low-dimensions.
This paper provides an alternative approach to Duffie and Lando [Econometrica 69 (2001) 633-664] for obtaining a reduced form credit risk model from a structural model. Duffie and Lando obtain a reduced form model by constructing an economy where the market sees the manager's information set plus noise. The noise makes…
In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), detrending moving average (DMA) and genera…