A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We introduce a fully probabilistic framework of consumer product choice based on quality assessment. It allows us to capture many aspects of marketing such as partial information asymmetry, quality differentiation, and product placement in a supermarket.
Sales data in a commodity market (supermarket sales to consumers) has been analysed by studying the fluctuation spectrum and noise correlations. Three related products (ketchup, mayonnaise and curry sauce) have been analysed. Most noise in sales is caused by promotions, but here we focus on the fluctuations in baseline…
Empirical data of supermarket sales show stylised facts that are similar to stock markets, with a broad (truncated) Levy distribution of weekly sales differences in the baseline sales [R.D. Groot, Physica A 353 (2005) 501]. To investigate the cause of this, the influence of social interactions and advertisements are st…
Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive accuracy prevails. Yet, predictive accuracy does not tell the whole story. We propose…
We introduce sparse random projection, an important dimension-reduction tool from machine learning, for the estimation of discrete-choice models with high-dimensional choice sets. Initially, high-dimensional data are compressed into a lower-dimensional Euclidean space using random projections. Subsequently, estimation …
Safety filter for unknown discrete-time systems with learned models and noise covariance.
problem Ensuring safety for unknown discrete-time linear systems with Gaussian noise.
method Develops a learning-based safety filter using empirical model and noise covariance, optimizing control actions to stay within safety constraints.
result Minimally modifies nominal control actions to ensure safety with high probability, tightening constraints as more data is collected.
Failures are challenging for learning to control physical systems since they risk damage, time-consuming resets, and often provide little gradient information. Adding safety constraints to exploration typically requires a lot of prior knowledge and domain expertise. We present a safety measure which implicitly captures…
Each year, around 6 million car accidents occur in the U.S. on average. Road safety features (e.g., concrete barriers, metal crash barriers, rumble strips) play an important role in preventing or mitigating vehicle crashes. Accurate maps of road safety features is an important component of safety management systems for…
Machine learning algorithms increasingly influence our decisions and interact with us in all parts of our daily lives. Therefore, just as we consider the safety of power plants, highways, and a variety of other engineered socio-technical systems, we must also take into account the safety of systems involving machine le…
Safe Bayesian Optimization algorithms are improved to ensure safety in real-world applications.
problem Ensuring safety in Bayesian Optimization algorithms for real-world applications.
method Investigated and improved three safety-related issues of SafeOpt-type algorithms: frequentist uncertainty bounds, RKHS norm assumptions, and discrete search spaces.
result Introduced Real-{eta}-SafeOpt, Lipschitz-only Safe Bayesian Optimization (LoSBO), and Lipschitz-only GP-UCB (LoS-GP-UCB) algorithms that retain safety guarantees and superior performance.
By building on a recently introduced genetic-inspired attribute-based conceptual framework for safety risk analysis, we propose a novel methodology to compute construction univariate and bivariate construction safety risk at a situational level. Our fully data-driven approach provides construction practitioners and aca…
The paper shows why AI safety doesn't generalize across tasks.
problem AI safety fails to generalize across unseen tasks.
method Theoretical analysis of linear-quadratic control with H∞-robustness, empirical demonstrations in simulated quadcopter navigation and CRM.
result The mapping from task specification to an optimal controller has a higher Lipschitz constant with safety requirements than without, indicating inherent complexity of safety.
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly influencing our decisions and interacting with us in all parts of our daily lives. Therefore, just like for power plants, highways, and myriad other engineered sociotechnical systems, we must consider the safety of systems involving machine learning. In this paper, we first …
Urban traffic systems worldwide are suffering from severe traffic safety problems. Traffic safety is affected by many complex factors, and heavily related to all drivers' behaviors involved in traffic system. Drivers with aggressive driving behaviors increase the risk of traffic accidents. In order to manage the safety…
ARTEO algorithm optimizes safety-critical systems with uncertainty.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty with safety constraints in real-time optimization.
method ARTEO algorithm uses multi-armed bandits as a mathematical programming problem subject to safety constraints, learning unknown characteristics through exploration and incorporating uncertainty quantification.
result ARTEO achieves less cumulative regret with accurate and safe decisions.