Backtests of structured strategies lose much of their predictive power in live trading.
problem Uncertainty in how marketed backtests predict live performance of structured strategies.
method Analysis of 1,726 structured strategies from ten global institutions.
result Raw backtests have limited portability into live trading and deteriorate sharply.
Investigates optimal portfolio strategies in markets with latent side information.
problem Investment problem in markets with latent dependence structure and side information.
method Dynamic and constant portfolio strategies, analyzing log-optimal portfolio as benchmark.
result Optimal dynamic strategy growth rate asymptotically converges to constant strategy in stationary markets.
New strategies avoid forced exploration for unimodal bandits.
problem Optimal exploration of unimodal bandit problems.
method Adapting IMED strategy to unimodal structure without forced exploration.
result Proven optimal strategies for unimodal bandits.
We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q. Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repet…
We develop a more efficient NGD method for structured parameters.
problem Computational challenges in NGD for structured parameter spaces.
method Local-parameter coordinates to simplify Fisher-matrix computations.
result New structured second-order algorithms and learning methods.
Improved option pricing model with transaction costs.
problem Inaccurate option pricing without considering transaction costs.
method Developed a replicating strategy with exponentially decreasing transaction costs.
result Validated the effectiveness of the new model through simulations.
This text explores strategies for learning discrete latent structures in neural networks.
problem Learning discrete latent structures in neural networks is challenging.
method Continuous relaxation, surrogate gradients, and probabilistic estimation.
result Many latent structure learning strategies use the same fundamental building blocks but apply them differently.
Study shows market volatility affects optimal communication design for trading strategies.
problem Investigating how communication impacts trading strategy performance in multi-agent systems.
method 5-agent LLM-based trading systems across 450 experiments spanning 21 months, comparing 5 organizational structures.
result Communication improves performance but depends on market characteristics, with competitive conversation excelling in volatile tech stocks.
NES optimizes discrete structured VAEs effectively without gradient propagation.
problem Learning high-dimensional discrete latent spaces in generative models.
method Natural Evolution Strategies (NES) for gradient-free optimization of discrete structures.
result NES effectively optimizes discrete structured VAEs, comparable to gradient-based methods.
Investment strategies derived from commodity futures curves exploit dynamics in price movements.
problem Modeling and predicting the term structure of commodity futures prices.
method Employed the Nelson-Siegel framework to model term structure, and developed investment strategies based on changes in slope and curvature parameters.
result Significant profits generated from systematic strategies based on the change in slope, unrelated to risk factors and robust to transaction costs.
OTSL improves structure learning accuracy with out-of-sample and resampling strategies.
problem Determining optimal hyperparameters for structure learning algorithms.
method Out-of-sample Tuning for Structure Learning (OTSL) using resampling strategies.
result Improves graphical accuracy of structure learning algorithms.
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
problem Optimizing VIX futures trading based on term structure.
method Assumes VIX futures term structure follows a Markov model. Uses a deep neural network to model the functional dependence between VIX futures curve, positions, and expected utility.
result Backtests show reasonable portfolio performance and optimal long/short positions.
Hedging in the presence of transaction costs leads to complex optimization problems. These problems typically lack closed-form solutions, and their implementation relies on numerical methods that provide hedging strategies for specific parameter values. In this paper we use a genetic programming algorithm to derive exp…
The study shows portfolios based on core-periphery stock structure outperform traditional strategies.
problem Optimizing stock portfolios using mesoscale structures.
method Constructing portfolios based on the core-periphery profile of stocks from Pearson correlations.
result Portfolios based on the core-periphery profile of stocks outperform traditional strategies.
We consider a game-theoretic model of a market where investors compete for payoffs yielded by several assets. The main result consists in a proof of the existence and uniqueness of a strategy, called relative growth optimal, such that the logarithm of the share of its wealth in the total wealth of the market is a subma…
We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order flow on the Shenzhen …
Study detects spoofing in high-frequency trading using micro-structural analysis.
problem Challenges in detecting spoofing due to complex electronic platforms and high-frequency trading.
method Micro-structural study in a simplified setting, optimization of spoofing strategy, monitoring with Wasserstein distance.
result Optimal spoofing strategy and its impact on market imbalance quantified.
A deterministic trading strategy can be regarded as a signal processing element that uses external information and past prices as inputs and incorporates them into future prices. This paper uses a market maker based method of price formation to study the price dynamics induced by several commonly used financial trading…
An important part of Digital Pathology is the analysis of multiple digitised whole slide images from differently stained tissue sections. It is common practice to mount consecutive sections containing corresponding microscopic structures on glass slides, and to stain them differently to highlight specific tissue compon…
Optimal order execution strategies for brokers under reference benchmarks.
problem Maximizing broker's utility of excess profit-and-loss subject to reference strategies.
method Formulated as a utility maximization problem, optimal strategies derived in closed form.
result General reference strategies can be approximated by piece-wise linear combinations of IS and TC orders.
We introduce simple cost and risk proxy metrics that can be attached to Treasury issuance strategy to complement analysis of the resulting portfolio weighted-average maturity (WAM). These metrics are based on mapping issuance fractions to their long-term, asymptotic portfolio implications for cost and risk under mechan…
Study improves healthcare time series imputation by considering structured missingness.
problem Structured missingness in clinical data impacts time series imputation models.
method Analysis of different masking strategies on imputation methods using PhysioNet Challenge 2012 dataset.
result Masking choices significantly affect imputation accuracy and clinical prediction.
NAS for financial time series forecasts using chain-structured architectures.
problem Optimizing neural architectures for financial time series forecasting.
method Comparison of three NAS strategies (Bayesian optimization, hyperband, reinforcement learning) on chain-structured search spaces for simple and complex architectures.
result Bayesian optimization and hyperband outperform other strategies, and RNN and 1D CNN perform best among architectures.
Paper analyzes deep learning models for credit rating prediction using text and numerical data.
problem Improving credit rating prediction using multi-modal deep learning.
method Testing different deep learning models and fusion strategies for structured and unstructured datasets.
result CNN-based multi-modal model with two fusion strategies outperformed other models.
Investment strategy developed using causal discovery algorithms in equity markets.
problem Lack of actionable causal relationships in large equity markets.
method Causal discovery algorithms applied to equity market data.
result Causal discovery algorithms can uncover actionable causal relationships in equity markets, leading to profitable investment outcomes.
This paper analyzes the skewness of momentum trading strategies.
problem Understanding the skewness of momentum trading strategies.
method Examined linear and nonlinear momentum trading strategies, focusing on skewness.
result Skewness is generally positive and has a term structure.
Measures strategy durability through minimum regime performance, revealing trade-offs between efficiency and resilience.
problem Systematic investing strategies are vulnerable to regime changes, affecting their effectiveness and performance.
method Introduces minimum regime performance (MRP) to quantify the durability of systematic strategies, capturing how performance deteriorates under changing market conditions.
result Higher long-term Sharpe ratios do not always correlate with higher MRP, highlighting a new dimension of portfolio fragility.
Recent breakthrough results in compressive sensing (CS) have established that many high dimensional signals can be accurately recovered from a relatively small number of non-adaptive linear observations, provided that the signals possess a sparse representation in some basis. Subsequent efforts have shown that the perf…
No fair and strategy-proof automated market maker exists for more than two assets.
problem Designing a fair and strategy-proof automated market maker for multiple assets.
method Analyzing the weighted-product family of aggregation rules and their properties.
result No aggregation rule is both fair and strategy-proof for more than two assets.
The inference of correlated signal fields with unknown correlation structures is of high scientific and technological relevance, but poses significant conceptual and numerical challenges. To address these, we develop the correlated signal inference (CSI) algorithm within information field theory (IFT) and discuss its n…
In this paper, learning of tree-structured Gaussian graphical models from distributed data is addressed. In our model, samples are stored in a set of distributed machines where each machine has access to only a subset of features. A central machine is then responsible for learning the structure based on received messag…
We present a simple one-parameter model for spatially localised evolving agents competing for spatially localised resources. The model considers selling agents able to evolve their pricing strategy in competition for a fixed market. Despite its simplicity, the model displays extraordinarily rich behavior. In addition t…
StratLearner learns strategies to prevent misinformation in social networks.
problem Learning strategies to protect against misinformation in social networks without knowing the diffusion model.
method Structured prediction framework using random features and large margin method.
result Our method produces near-optimal protectors without diffusion model information and outperforms other methods.
Paper presents a machine learning-based method for efficiently pricing and hedging autocallable structured notes with multiple underlying assets.
problem Complex pricing and hedging of autocallable notes with multiple underlying assets.
method Machine learning-based pricing method and Distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL) for hedging.
result Significantly improved efficiency in pricing and hedging, with faster computation and better risk management.
Study uses RNN for real-time crypto price prediction and trading optimization.
problem High volatility in cryptocurrency markets makes traditional forecasting models unreliable.
method Data collection, preprocessing, model refinement, and backtesting.
result Improved accuracy in real-time crypto price prediction and optimized trading strategies.
M2M tackles zero-shot structured noise suppression in images.
problem Structured noise with strong anisotropic correlations in real-world images.
method M2M introduces a novel sampling strategy that generates pseudo-independent sub-image pairs from a single noisy input, using directional interpolation and generalized median filtering.
result M2M consistently outperforms state-of-the-art zero-shot methods under correlated noise.
The paper analyzes optimal dealer strategies in agent-based market models.
problem Optimal dealer strategies in market models.
method Agent-based simulations extended from Chiarella's model to include liquidity providers.
result Dealers with greater risk aversion tend to perform better, but quote size effects are mixed.
Paper identifies a shared toolkit of strategies for risk management across fields.
problem Uncertainty and risk management in various fields.
method Systematic identification and categorization of 110 strategies.
result RDOT: Risk-reducing Design and Operations Toolkit provides versatile responses to uncertainty.
We provide a new characterization of mean-variance hedging strategies in a general semimartingale market. The key point is the introduction of a new probability measure P⋆ which turns the dynamic asset allocation problem into a myopic one. The minimal martingale measure relative to P⋆ coincides with t…
The paper reveals a spinning top geometry in real-world games.
problem Understanding the structure of real-world games.
method Developed a spinning top geometric model and used Nash clustering.
result Real-world games exhibit a spinning top structure with transitive and non-transitive dimensions.
We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit-maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Due to noisy private information about the fundamental value, the agents form different evaluations about heteroge…
Evolution Strategies (ES) are a powerful class of blackbox optimization techniques that recently became a competitive alternative to state-of-the-art policy gradient (PG) algorithms for reinforcement learning (RL). We propose a new method for improving accuracy of the ES algorithms, that as opposed to recent approaches…
A model learns stock trading rules from raw prices using encoder-decoder neural network.
problem Extracting features from long price sequences for profitable trading rules.
method Neural encoder-decoder framework combined with DRL.
result The model outperforms state-of-the-art models in dynamic environments.
We propose a new class of structured methods for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, called DPPMC, designed for high-dimensional nonisotropic distributions where samples are correlated to reduce the variance of the estimator via determinantal point processes. We successfully apply DPPMCs to problems involving nonisotropic distr…
The theory of multilayer networks is in its early stages, and its development provides vital methods for understanding complex systems. Multilayer networks, in their multiplex form, have been introduced within the last three years to analysing the structure of financial systems, and existing studies have modelled and e…
A new learning strategy using two GP layers for inhomogeneous data.
problem Addressing inhomogeneous empirical correlation structures in data.
method Modeling the function as a sample function of a non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) nested within multiple stationary GPs, with hyperparameters dependent on the outer GP.
result The approach is sufficient with two GP layers, and the model can be implemented using MCMC.
Novel hybrid method for Bayesian network structure learning reduces computational time without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Bayesian network structure learning efficiency and accuracy trade-off.
method Partitioned PC (pPC), p-value adjacency thresholding (PATH), hybrid greedy initialization (HGI). result pHGS achieves significant computational reductions compared to the PC algorithm without sacrificing structure learning accuracy.
The paper explores methods to better estimate treatment effects by leveraging shared structure in potential outcomes.
problem Estimating treatment effects when outcomes may vary widely and existing methods often assume heterogeneity.
method Investigates and compares three learning strategies: regularization, reparametrization, and a multi-task architecture.
result All three approaches improve upon existing baselines, providing insights into their relative strengths.