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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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80160240320 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for statistical bias

Study improves statistical power for detecting algorithmic bias in educational data.

problem Challenges in measuring algorithmic bias using ABROCA due to skewed distribution.
method Investigates ABROCA's distributional properties and proposes nonparametric randomization tests.
result ABROCA-based bias assessments are underpowered in typical EDM sample sizes.

The paper introduces Relative Bias to quantify LLM bias systematically.

problem Quantifying bias in LLMs is challenging due to ambiguity and rapid model emergence.
method Relative Bias framework using Embedding Transformation and LLM-as-a-Judge methodologies.
result The two scoring methods show strong alignment, providing a systematic approach.

Private statistics estimation faces a bias, accuracy, and privacy trilemma.

problem Balancing privacy, accuracy, and bias in statistical estimation.
method Use differential privacy (DP) for private statistics, but clip samples to control sensitivity and add noise for privacy, introducing bias.
result No algorithm can simultaneously have low bias, low error, and low privacy loss for arbitrary distributions.

The paper explores the trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional models.

problem Understanding the unavoidable trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional statistical models.
method Proposes a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of estimators with a specified bias, and applies it to various statistical models.
result Shows the extent to which the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and quantifies the performance loss for methods that do not balance it.

We detect lookahead bias in LLM forecasts using a novel statistical method.

problem Detecting lookahead bias in LLM-generated economic forecasts.
method Developed a statistical procedure using date-only recall queries and estimated Lookahead Propensity (LAP).
result LLM forecasts are contaminated with lookahead bias, as indicated by a positive interaction between LAP and the forecast in accuracy regressions.

New insights into bias and variance in over-parameterized models.

problem Understanding bias and variance in over-parameterized models.
method Analytic expressions derived from statistical physics for two minimal models.
result Over-parameterized models can overfit even in noiseless conditions.

Proposes tests to control confounding bias in predictive models.

problem Lack of non-parametric tests for confounding bias in predictive modeling.
method Partial and full confounder tests for probing null hypotheses of unconfounded and fully confounded models.
result Reveals previously unreported or hard-to-correct confounders in machine learning models.

New method reduces bias in estimating causal effects from discretized variables.

problem Bias in estimating causal effects from discretized continuous variables.
method Proposes a bias-reduced functional that evaluates outcome regression at within-bin conditional means.
result Demonstrates substantial bias reduction and near-nominal confidence interval coverage.

New method corrects selection bias in complex models.

problem Selection bias in statistical studies leading to systematic distortions.
method Amortized Bayesian inference with neural posterior estimation.
result Recover well-calibrated posterior distributions across diverse selection mechanisms.

Unified theory and debiasing framework for random oblique projections in high dimensions.

problem Systematic statistical bias in random oblique projections induced by sampling.
method Unified non-asymptotic theory and debiasing framework.
result Sharp bias--variance characterizations and improved approximation accuracy.

Study measures gender bias in machine translation using multiple reference points.

problem Measuring and identifying gender bias in machine translation.
method Used an optimal non-biased translator, reference points from occupational statistics and survey.
result Found bias against both genders, but more against women, and found occupations have a greater effect than adjectives.

This paper presents a general iterative bias correction procedure for regression smoothers. This bias reduction schema is shown to correspond operationally to the L2L_2 Boosting algorithm and provides a new statistical interpretation for L2L_2 Boosting. We analyze the behavior of the Boosting algorithm applied to commo…

2008-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

A method learns common bias for multiple low-variance tasks without hyper-parameter tuning.

problem Learning common bias for multiple low-variance tasks without manual tuning.
method Two variants of online learning methods (aggressive and lazy) that update bias after each datapoint or at the end of each task.
result Across-tasks regret bound derived for the method, showing faster rates for aggressive variant and standard rates for lazy variant.

ABROCA assesses algorithmic bias, revealing skewed distributions that inflate results.

problem Detecting nuanced performance differences in classifier fairness.
method Study of ABROCA metric's statistical properties under various conditions.
result ABROCA distributions are skewed, inflating results by chance in imbalanced classes.

Theory and methods to mitigate omitted variable bias in causal machine learning.

problem Mitigating omitted variable bias in causal machine learning models.
method Developed a general theory and flexible statistical inference methods for bounding and testing the magnitude of omitted variable bias.
result Simple plausibility judgments can bound the magnitude of omitted variable bias in complex, nonlinear models.

CPCR mitigates bias in PCR for overparameterized models.

problem Bias in Principal Component Regression (PCR) for overparameterized models.
method Calibrated Principal Component Regression (CPCR) learns a low-variance prior in the PC subspace and calibrates the model in the original feature space.
result CPCR outperforms standard PCR in overparameterized settings, improving prediction across multiple problems.

This paper examines the use of a residual bootstrap for bias correction in machine learning regression methods. Accounting for bias is an important obstacle in recent efforts to develop statistical inference for machine learning methods. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed bootstrap bias correction can lead to…

2015-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of t…

2016-09-06abs ↗pdf ↗

A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.

problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.

Generalizes bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.

problem No specific problem stated; generalization of bias-variance for Bregman divergences.
method Provided a generalization of the bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
result A clear, standalone derivation of the bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.

The paper corrects bias in fluid approximation for better decision-making in stochastic optimization.

problem Bias introduced by using mean values in fluid approximation leads to suboptimal decisions.
method Identifying a decision-corrected point estimate that yields optimal decisions.
result A corrected point estimate exists under certain conditions and can be computed algorithmically.

Paper resolves bias in ALFT training using generalized alignment games.

problem Systematic bias in estimating logarithmic rewards from small batches.
method Generalized Distributional Alignment Games, U-statistics, minimax polynomial estimators, Variance-Optimal Augmented Polynomial Optimization Program (AQP) Estimator.
result Proves optimal bias and accelerated convergence in ALFT training.

New methods reduce bias in estimating optimality gaps for risk-averse stochastic programs.

problem Optimality gap estimation bias in risk-averse stochastic programs.
method Two independent samples, each estimating a different component of the optimality gap.
result Our method reduces bias in estimating optimality gaps for risk-averse problems.

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealing.

problem Efficiently compressing statistical floating-point data.
method Representation learning with binary variables, classical optimization of basis vectors, quantum annealing for coefficients, bias correction.
result Quantum annealing shows promising results with 3.5x better compression than neural-network autoencoders.

Reduces gender bias in patient notes while maintaining medical classification accuracy.

problem Bias in natural language processing of patient notes.
method Identifying and removing gendered language using BERT-based classifiers, then augmenting data to maintain performance.
result Minimal degradation in health condition classification tasks with data augmentation.

New strategy debiases synthetic data generated by DGMs for improved statistical inference.

problem Bias and imprecision in synthetic data generated by DGMs impede statistical convergence and inference.
method Debiasing strategy based on debiased and targeted machine learning.
result Enhanced convergence rates and accurate estimators with easily approximated variances.

We model and correct bias in sequential evaluation, improving ranking accuracy.

problem Sequential evaluation bias in online, irrevocable scoring.
method Modeling the rating process, posing as statistical inference, proposing an online algorithm.
result Near-linear time, online algorithm with guarantees in ranking metrics, information theoretically optimal.