Estimates peeking effects in p-values to correct bias.
problem Data peeking biases reported p-values downward.
method Develops mechanisms to estimate running extrema of test statistics.
result Corrects bias in p-values due to peeking.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
18 results for “peeking”
We study super--replication of European contingent claims in an illiquid market with insider information. Illiquidity is captured by quadratic transaction costs and insider information is modeled by an investor who can peek into the future. Our main result describes the scaling limit of the super--replication prices wh…
PEAK tests means of multiple data streams with sequential betting.
problem Testing means of multiple data streams with nonparametric methods.
method Sequential, nonparametric testing using a betting scheme.
result PEAK provides up to 85% reduction in samples for stopping.
We survey distributed deep learning models for training or inference without accessing raw data from clients. These methods aim to protect confidential patterns in data while still allowing servers to train models. The distributed deep learning methods of federated learning, split learning and large batch stochastic gr…
What if we knew what the future brings? Optimal investment for a frontrunner with price impactq-fin.MF
Investor optimizes investment timing with future knowledge, overcoming transaction costs.
problem Optimal investment timing with future peeking, constrained by transaction costs.
method Solves control problem with infinite-dimensional memory using Gaussian Volterra integral equations.
result Explicit solution to optimal investment problem in Bachelier setting.
With the advent of highly predictive but opaque deep learning models, it has become more important than ever to understand and explain the predictions of such models. Existing approaches define interpretability as the inverse of complexity and achieve interpretability at the cost of accuracy. This introduces a risk of …
Recently, the online car-hailing service, Didi, has emerged as a leader in the sharing economy. Used by passengers and drivers extensive, it becomes increasingly important for the car-hailing service providers to minimize the waiting time of passengers and optimize the vehicle utilization, thus to improve the overall u…
Despite their increasing popularity and success in a variety of supervised learning problems, deep neural networks are extremely hard to interpret and debug: Given and already trained Deep Neural Net, and a set of test inputs, how can we gain insight into how those inputs interact with different layers of the neural ne…
New test detects independence in streaming data, adapting to data complexity.
problem Independence testing in streaming data with adaptive stopping.
method Sequential kernelized independence tests using betting principles.
result Valid inference in streaming data with improved power.
A great deal of interest has recently focused on conducting inference on the parameters in a high-dimensional linear model. In this paper, we consider a simple and very naïve two-step procedure for this task, in which we (i) fit a lasso model in order to obtain a subset of the variables, and (ii) fit a least squares mo…
Conventional financial models fail to explain the economic and monetary properties of cryptocurrencies due to the latter's dual nature: their usage as financial assets on the one side and their tight connection to the underlying blockchain structure on the other. In an effort to examine both components via a unified ap…
A novel memory mechanism for reinforcement learning agents that stores past events in human-readable language.
problem Lack of interpretability in reinforcement learning agent's memory mechanisms.
method Uses CLIP to associate visual inputs with language tokens, then feeds these tokens to a pretrained language model.
result Significantly faster convergence on challenging continuous recognition tasks.
This paper introduces time-uniform CLT-based confidence intervals for statistical inference.
problem Developing valid statistical inference methods for sequential data.
method Time-uniform central limit theory and strong invariance principles.
result Asymptotic confidence sequences (CSs) that are uniformly valid over time.
Traditionally, music was treated as an analogue signal and was generated manually. In recent years, music is conspicuous to technology which can generate a suite of music automatically without any human intervention. To accomplish this task, we need to overcome some technical challenges which are discussed descriptivel…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for optimizing online experiments to maximize profit.
problem Statistical flaws and reliance on proxy metrics in A/B tests compromise their effectiveness.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating conversion probability and monetary value, decision-theoretic stopping rule.
result The framework ensures experiments conclude when no variant offers a significant profit improvement, conserving resources.
Given two or more Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with the same or similar architectures, and trained on the same dataset, but trained with different solvers, parameters, hyper-parameters, regularization, etc., can we predict which DNN will have the best test accuracy, and can we do so without peeking at the test data? In …
Context: One of the black arts of data mining is learning the magic parameters which control the learners. In software analytics, at least for defect prediction, several methods, like grid search and differential evolution (DE), have been proposed to learn these parameters, which has been proved to be able to improve t…
We interpret black box predictive models using causal attribution.
problem Interpreting models trained using machine learning in high-stakes applications.
method Estimate causal effects of model inputs on output using observational data.
result Effective interpretation of black box predictive models via causal attribution.