This review explores ML in predicting team sport outcomes, identifying successful strategies and themes.
problem Predicting outcomes in team sports using machine learning.
method Survey of studies from 1996 to 2019, analyzing ML algorithms and their accuracies.
result Identifies common themes and strategies for future research in predicting team sport outcomes.
Flexible model predicts sports outcomes over time.
problem Predicting sports outcomes with varying player/team skill over time.
method Probabilistic model using continuous-time Gaussian processes for dynamic parameters, efficient inference algorithm.
result Model outperforms competing approaches in predictive performance and scalability.
Random forest model predicts tennis match outcomes with 80% accuracy.
problem Predicting tennis match outcomes before the game starts.
method Used a large database of tennis match information and a random forest model.
result Identified serve strength as a key predictor of match outcome.
A simplified Bayesian approach for online sports rating.
problem Rating players/teams based on game outcomes.
method Bayesian approach using Kalman filter principles.
result Known algorithms like Elo and TrueSkill are special cases.
This paper optimizes sports betting strategies using neural networks and portfolio theory.
problem Optimizing betting strategies in sports gambling.
method Combining neural network models with portfolio optimization, integrating Von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory and the Kelly Criterion.
result Achieved 135.8% relative profit during the English Premier League season.
Study proposes new methods to convert betting odds into accurate probabilities for sports forecasting.
problem Convert betting odds to accurate outcome probabilities for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis.
method Proposes two methods: Odds-Only-Equal-Profitability-Confidence (OO-EPC) and Favourite-Longshot-Bias-Adjusted Generalised Linear Model (FL-GLM).
result Proposed methods outperform existing methods in empirical tests and real-world applications.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
problem Real-time evaluation and player assessment in team sports.
method Continuous dominance indicator (T-score) and T-process formulation.
result Decomposes competitive advantage into interpretable statistical components.
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
problem Analyzing patterns of wins and losses in games and social hierarchies.
method Generalized probabilistic models incorporating luck and depth of competition.
result Social competition tends to be deeper with many distinct levels, but there is often a chance of upset victories.
Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal Élő update still remains, after more than 50 years, a valuable baseline which is difficult to…
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
problem Predicting soccer match outcomes with complex networks and machine learning.
method Complex network metrics and match statistics were used to build machine learning models.
result Models based on passing networks were as effective as traditional models using match statistics.
Bayesian model infers strengths from noisy tennis match outcomes.
problem Ranking tennis players from match outcomes.
method Bayesian approach to infer unobserved strengths and mapping function.
result Bayesian approach robust to different model specifications.
Decentralized prediction markets use AMMs to pool and withdraw liquidity, improving financial properties.
problem Creating a fair and efficient decentralized prediction market.
method Developed a liquidity-based AMM structure for prediction markets, studied liquidity management, and proposed trading fees.
result The decentralized AMM structure satisfies financial properties and can be managed with liquidity withdrawal.
We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and games in the NFL season and use them alongside statistical game data to build predic…
Comparison data arises in many important contexts, e.g. shopping, web clicks, or sports competitions. Typically we are given a dataset of comparisons and wish to train a model to make predictions about the outcome of unseen comparisons. In many cases available datasets have relatively few comparisons (e.g. there are on…
Accurately predicting the outcome of sporting events has been a goal for many groups who seek to maximize profit. What makes this challenging is that the outcome of an event can be influenced by many factors that dynamically change across time. Oddsmakers attempt to estimate these factors by using both algorithmic and …
Algorithm beats sports betting markets, showing inefficiencies.
problem Inefficiencies in sports betting markets.
method Created a betting algorithm using a novel dataset and win probability model.
result Above market returns for various sports betting markets.
Technology has had an unquestionable impact on the way people watch sports. Along with this technological evolution has come a higher standard to ensure a good viewing experience for the casual sports fan. It can be argued that the pervasion of statistical analysis in sports serves to satiate the fan's desire for detai…
The paper analyzes sports commentary to automatically recognize events and extract insights.
problem Automatically recognizing and categorizing major actions in sports events from commentary.
method Used multiple Natural Language Processing techniques for classification and sentiment analysis.
result Identified insights from analyzing live sport commentaries and classifying major actions.
BBE simulates sports betting exchanges for data generation.
problem Creating synthetic data for betting strategy testing.
method Agent-based model (ABM) for sports betting exchange simulation.
result Simulation runs up to 1000 times faster with GPU.
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
problem Mitigating risk in sports betting investments.
method Modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion, with modifications for practical risk control.
result Adaptive fractional Kelly method is suitable across various sports settings.
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far. The purpose of this research was to study whether data mined from Twitter can b…
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limi…
Wearables like smartwatches which are embedded with sensors and powerful processors, provide a strong platform for development of analytics solutions in sports domain. To analyze players' games, while motion sensor based shot detection has been extensively studied in sports like Tennis, Golf, Baseball; Table Tennis and…
Paper simplifies complex sports analytics models for better understanding.
problem Difficulty in interpreting deep learning models for sports analytics.
method Developed a linear model tree that mimics deep learning models and explains its knowledge.
result The linear model tree achieves high accuracy and provides actionable insights.
Blockchain fan tokens boost sports fan engagement by 50%.
problem Low fan engagement in sports decisions.
method Analyzed 3,576 fan token polls to identify determinants of participation.
result Fan tokens engage 4,003 participants per poll, 50% of token holders.
This paper introduces C-DSL to improve data mining outcomes by considering context.
problem Data collection ambiguities, data imbalance, hidden biases, lack of domain info, and data incompleteness.
method Developed Context-Driven Data Science Lifecycle (C-DSL) to address data quality issues.
result Tangible improvements to data mining outcomes were achieved through C-DSL.
Paper learns skill distributions from game outcomes, proving minimax optimality.
problem Learning skill distributions from noisy pairwise game outcomes.
method Proposes a simple algorithm using kernel density estimation and minimax techniques.
result Near-optimal minimax mean squared error scaling for skill density estimation.
Rugby-Bot predicts multiple metrics from a single source using fine-grain data.
problem Complexity of sporting events requires multiple metrics for accurate analysis.
method Multi-task learning with fine-grain spatial data and wide-and-deep learning.
result Predictions are consistent and can be in distribution form.
Improved trajectory prediction for team sports using sparse outputs.
problem Challenging to train deep learning models for player trajectory prediction.
method Sparse trajectory prediction and constant acceleration interpolation.
result Interpolation improves performance for all tested models.
Bayesian model improves win probability estimates in soccer.
problem Technical challenges in estimating win probability for soccer.
method Bayesian statistical framework using contextual game state features.
result Well-calibrated win, tie, and loss probabilities demonstrated.
New methods for skill rating in sports using state-space models.
problem Improving skill rating in competitive sports.
method State-space models, sequential Monte Carlo, discrete hidden Markov models.
result Advantages of state-space models for time-varying player skills.
This short note is intended as a "Letter to the Editor" Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide interest: sport and money. It is apparent from the data reported and discussed b…
BBE simulates betting exchanges to generate synthetic data for AI research.
problem Lack of real data for AI/ML in betting exchanges.
method Agent-based simulation model of a sports-betting exchange.
result Generates large, high-resolution synthetic data for AI/ML.
Machine learning predicts US will win most Olympic medals in 2020.
problem Improve Olympic medal forecasting accuracy.
method Two-stage Random Forest machine learning model.
result Model outperforms traditional forecasts for three previous Olympics.
Method learns to predict agent interactions from partial observations.
problem Predicting interactions between multiple agents from incomplete data.
method Graph-Structured Variational Recurrent Neural Network (Graph-VRNN) trained end-to-end.
result Graph-VRNN outperforms baselines on sports datasets.
A method for dynamic ranking using BTL model and nearest neighbor rank centrality.
problem Aggregating evolving pairwise comparisons to recover item strengths over time.
method Adapting Rank Centrality method to handle dynamic pairwise outcomes.
result Consistency of the method in estimating latent strengths over time.
TrackNet tracks tiny balls in sports videos with high precision.
problem Accurately tracking tiny and fast-moving objects like tennis balls in sports videos.
method Developed a heatmap-based deep learning network, TrackNet, trained on public and additional labeled videos.
result Achieved high precision (99.7%) in ball tracking on public domain videos.
The availability of massive data about sports activities offers nowadays the opportunity to quantify the relation between performance and success. In this study, we analyze more than 6,000 games and 10 million events in six European leagues and investigate this relation in soccer competitions. We discover that a team's…
Hierarchical MARL learns complementary skills for team coordination.
problem Creating intelligent agents that coordinate like human sports teams.
method Two-level hierarchical MARL with unsupervised skill discovery.
result Emergence of useful and complementary skills in team games.
Alternative dynamic paired comparison model using Gaussian Processes.
problem Sports prediction and ranking players or teams.
method Dynamic paired comparison model with Gaussian Process priors, incorporating covariates, and efficient Bayesian inference.
result The GP model outperforms Elo and Glicko on log loss, especially with surface covariates.
Bayesian rating system for large competitions improves prediction and efficiency.
problem Rating systems for large, competitive events like online programming contests.
method Developed a Bayesian rating system for many participants, proving robustness and runtime.
result The system outperforms existing systems in accuracy and computation speed.
Study identifies spatial inequalities in urban services access based on income.
problem Spatial inequalities in urban services and accessibility based on income.
method Multidimensional approach using land use and public transportation data.
result Low-income population has low access to hospitals and cultural centers, while public schools and sports centers have intermediate accessibility.
The paper sorts big data by revealed preferences, improving consumer and policy decisions.
problem Sorting diverse consumer preferences for big data objects like colleges.
method Endogenous weighting of revealed preferences, considering spillover effects.
result Consistent steady-state solution to counterbalance equilibrium.
Develops a method to infer partial rankings from sparse comparisons.
problem Challenges in ranking items with limited and noisy comparisons.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning partial rankings.
result Finds partial rankings that distinguish meaningful differences only when data supports it.
The paper proposes using experts' insights in machine learning tasks.
problem Lack of reliance on experts' opinions in machine learning tasks.
method A three-step framework for integrating experts' insights into machine learning models.
result Proposed models achieve more stable and lower log loss results compared to top solutions.
We generalize Mallows model to learn distance metrics from data.
problem Learning optimal distance metrics from noisy ranking data.
method Propose Lα distances and develop FPTAS for sampling and MLE. result Strong consistency of estimators for various α and β. Two approaches use TDA and graph theory for tennis match prediction.
problem Predicting tennis match outcomes using network features.
method Lower-star filtration on player competitive networks, Random Forest model, modified Katz similarity index.
result TDA features alone can achieve above-chance prediction in tennis match outcomes.
The paper proposes trading grades in a financial market to address unintended consequences of grading systems.
problem Unintended consequences of grading systems, such as unfair advantages and misaligned incentives.
method A thought experiment in a financial market structure to trade grades, similar to interest rate swaps.
result Grades should be viewed as personal equity, not used for selection criteria.