A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper analyzes sports commentary to automatically recognize events and extract insights.
Commentary on Cheng's fairness comparison between tests and AI.
We give some background and biographical commentary on the postumous article that appears in this [journal issue | ArXiv] by Robert Riley on his part of the early history of hyperbolic structures on some compact 3-manifolds. A complete list of Riley's publications appears at the end of the article.
We provide a commentary on Teichm{ü}ller's paper "Extremale quasikonforme Abbildungen und quadratische Differentiale" (Extremal quasiconformal mappings of closed oriented Riemann surfaces), Abh. Preuss. Akad. Wiss., Math.-Naturw. Kl. 1940, No.22, 1-197 (1940). The paper is quoted in several works, although it was read …
Technology has had an unquestionable impact on the way people watch sports. Along with this technological evolution has come a higher standard to ensure a good viewing experience for the casual sports fan. It can be argued that the pervasion of statistical analysis in sports serves to satiate the fan's desire for detai…
Inefficient markets allow investors to consistently outperform the market. To demonstrate that inefficiencies exist in sports betting markets, we created a betting algorithm that generates above market returns for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, and WNBA betting markets. To formulate our betting strategy, we collected and …
This review explores ML in predicting team sport outcomes, identifying successful strategies and themes.
This is a commentary on Teichm{ü}ller's paper Ein Verschiebungssatz der quasikonformen Abbildung (A displacement theorem of quasiconformal mapping), published in 1944. We explain in detail how Teichm{ü}ller solves the problem of finding the quasiconformal mapping from the unit disc to itself, sending 0 to a strictly ne…
This is a short commentary piece that discusses how the methods used in the natural sciences can apply to economics in general and financial markets specifically.
Fund2Persona creates personalized financial advisor personas from fund data, improving investment advice.
Fund2Persona creates personalized financial advisor personas from fund data, improving investment advice and manager interpretation.
This paper optimizes sports betting strategies using neural networks and portfolio theory.
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
To identify and classify toxic online commentary, the modern tools of data science transform raw text into key features from which either thresholding or learning algorithms can make predictions for monitoring offensive conversations. We systematically evaluate 62 classifiers representing 19 major algorithmic families …
Commentary on Teichmüller's 1938 paper on conformal and quasiconformal mappings.
Wearables like smartwatches which are embedded with sensors and powerful processors, provide a strong platform for development of analytics solutions in sports domain. To analyze players' games, while motion sensor based shot detection has been extensively studied in sports like Tennis, Golf, Baseball; Table Tennis and…
Paper simplifies complex sports analytics models for better understanding.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
Blockchain fan tokens boost sports fan engagement by 50%.
This commentary has two goals. We first critically review the deconfounder method and point out its advantages and limitations. We then briefly consider three possible ways to address some of the limitations of the deconfounder method.
This paper is a commentary and a reading guide to three papers by Herbert Busemann, Über die Geometrien, in denen die "Kreise mit unendlichem Radius" die kürzesten Linien sind." (On the geometries where circles of infinite radius are the shortest lines) (1932), "Paschsches Axiom und Zweidimensionalität," (Pasch's Axiom…
A simplified Bayesian approach for online sports rating.
Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as well as the growth of machine learning methods for use in sports analytics. Of par…
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
Improved trajectory prediction for team sports using sparse outputs.
New methods for skill rating in sports using state-space models.
This short note is intended as a "Letter to the Editor" Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide interest: sport and money. It is apparent from the data reported and discussed b…
BBE simulates betting exchanges to generate synthetic data for AI research.
Machine learning predicts US will win most Olympic medals in 2020.
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making,…
Sporting events are extremely complex and require a multitude of metrics to accurate describe the event. When making multiple predictions, one should make them from a single source to keep consistency across the predictions. We present a multi-task learning method of generating multiple predictions for analysis via a s…
This is a mathematical commentary on Teichm{ü}ller's paper ``Bestimmung der extremalen quasikonformen Abbildungen bei geschlossenen orientierten Riemannschen Fl{ä}chen'' (Determination of extremal quasiconformal maps of closed oriented Riemann surfaces). This paper is among the last (and may be the last one) that Teich…
Study proposes new methods to convert betting odds into accurate probabilities for sports forecasting.
BBE simulates sports betting exchanges for data generation.
Hierarchical MARL learns complementary skills for team coordination.
Decentralized prediction markets use AMMs to pool and withdraw liquidity, improving financial properties.
We comment on the paper Über Extremalprobleme der konformen Geometrie (On extremal problems in conformal geometry) by Teichmüller, published in 1941. This paper contains ideas on a wide generalization of his previous work on the solution of extremal problems in conformal geometry. The generalization concerns at the sam…
The paper reviews Hankel low-rank methods for time series analysis and forecasting.
This is a commentary on Teichmüllers' paper "Veränderliche Riemannsche Flächen" (Variable Riemann Surfaces), published in 1944. This paper is the last one that Teichmüller wrote on the problem of moduli. At most places the paper contains ideas and no technical details. The author presents a completely new approach to T…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We achieve this by replacing the static parameters of a class of popular pairwise-compari…
Bayesian rating system for large competitions improves prediction and efficiency.
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
We comment on Teichm{ü}ller 's paper ''Vollst{ä}ndige L{ö}sung einer Extremalaufgabe der quasikonformen Abbildung'' (Complete solution of an ex-tremal problem of the quasiconformal mapping),, published in 1941. In this paper, Teichm{ü}ller gives a proof of the existence of extremal quasiconformal mappings in the case o…
Paper summarizes unsupervised learning challenges for disentangled representations.
The paper proposes using experts' insights in machine learning tasks.
We generalize Mallows model to learn distance metrics from data.
Commentary on Rashomon Effect complicating model selection.
Study shows news from various topics impacts Nifty 50 index.