A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
SINN combines social science and deep learning for predicting opinion dynamics.
We demonstrate that a number of sociology models for social network dynamics can be viewed as continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs). A sampling-based approximate inference method for CTBNs can be used as the basis of an expectation-maximization procedure that achieves better accuracy in estimating the parameters of…
Two models predict net loan losses using Bayesian and frequentist regression.
In this article, we briefly review the different aspects and applications of kinetic exchange models in economics and sociology. Our main aim is to show in what manner the kinetic exchange models for closed economic systems were inspired by the kinetic theory of gas molecules. The simple yet powerful framework of kinet…
We seek to deepen understanding of the micro-foundations of institutionalization while contributing to a sociological theory of markets by investigating the puzzle of price bubbles in financial markets. We find that such markets, despite textbook conditions of high efficiency -- perfect information, atomistic agents, n…
In this paper, we show how simple logistic growth that was studied intensively during the last 200 years in many domains of science could be extended in a rather simple way and with these extensions is capable to produce a collection of behaviors widely observed in an enormous number of real-life systems in Economics, …
We discuss several multi-agent models that have their origin in the kinetic exchange theory of statistical mechanics and have been recently applied to a variety of problems in the social sciences. This class of models can be easily adapted for simulations in areas other than physics, such as the modeling of income and …
Individuals do not respond uniformly to treatments, events, or interventions. Sociologists routinely partition samples into subgroups to explore how the effects of treatments vary by covariates like race, gender, and socioeconomic status. In so doing, analysts determine the key subpopulations based on theoretical prior…
Social media enhances or diminishes scientific status, depending on usage.
The methods of statistical physics are widely used for modelling complex networks. Building on the recently proposed Equilibrium Expectation approach, we derive a simple and efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of parameters of exponential family distributions - a family of statistical models, th…
Stable cooperation emerges in fluctuating environments.
Multivariate count data are defined as the number of items of different categories issued from sampling within a population, which individuals are grouped into categories. The analysis of multivariate count data is a recurrent and crucial issue in numerous modelling problems, particularly in the fields of biology and e…
The era of data deluge has sparked the interest in graph-based learning methods in a number of disciplines such as sociology, biology, neuroscience, or engineering. In this paper, we introduce a graph recurrent neural network (GRNN) for scalable semi-supervised learning from multi-relational data. Key aspects of the no…
Recently, there has been a growing interest in network research, especially in these fields of biology, computer science, and sociology. It is natural to address complex financial issues such as the European sovereign debt crisis from the perspective of network. In this article, we construct a network model according t…
New model for detecting communities in weighted bipartite networks.
New framework for online control in evolving populations.
Financial models shape markets through performativity, creating self-fulfilling prophecies.
Understanding international trade is a fundamental problem in economics -- one standard approach is via what is commonly called the "gravity equation", which predicts the total amount of trade between two countries and as where is a constant, denote …
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based collective violence and illicit activity. I point out how the borders distinguish…
Paper develops fast, flexible Hawkes process inference for space-time data.
The paper explores fairness metrics in automated decision-making and their limitations.
Flexible model tackles high-dimensional, missing data, and stochastic processes.
Proposes a new Lasso method with performance constraints.
Securely trains regression models with secret sharing for data collaboration.
Research on probabilistic models of networks now spans a wide variety of fields, including physics, sociology, biology, statistics, and machine learning. These efforts have produced a diverse ecology of models and methods. Despite this diversity, many of these models share a common underlying structure: pairwise intera…
This paper studies the matched network inference problem, where the goal is to determine if two networks, defined on a common set of nodes, exhibit a specific form of stochastic similarity. Two notions of similarity are considered: (i) equality, i.e., testing whether the networks arise from the same random graph model,…
New framework tracks communities in dynamic networks.
This paper extends transfer operator theory to McKean-Vlasov equations.
Graph-based methods pervade the inference toolkits of numerous disciplines including sociology, biology, neuroscience, physics, chemistry, and engineering. A challenging problem encountered in this context pertains to determining the attributes of a set of vertices given those of another subset at possibly different ti…
QuEst combines model predictions with observed data to estimate quantile-based measures.
Power of network tests degrades when vertices are misaligned.
Log-linear models are a family of probability distributions which capture relationships between variables. They have been proven useful in a wide variety of fields such as epidemiology, economics and sociology. The interest in using these models is that they are able to capture context-specific independencies, relation…
With the rapid growth of crowdsourcing platforms it has become easy and relatively inexpensive to collect a dataset labeled by multiple annotators in a short time. However due to the lack of control over the quality of the annotators, some abnormal annotators may be affected by position bias which can potentially degra…
The ability to identify sentiment in text, referred to as sentiment analysis, is one which is natural to adult humans. This task is, however, not one which a computer can perform by default. Identifying sentiments in an automated, algorithmic manner will be a useful capability for business and research in their search …
Image of an entity can be defined as a structured and dynamic representation which can be extracted from the opinions of a group of users or population. Automatic extraction of such an image has certain importance in political science and sociology related studies, e.g., when an extended inquiry from large-scale data i…
This paper argues for decolonizing AI alignment by incorporating open-source Hinduism concepts.
System detects financial news temporality combining NLP and ML.
The paper models network formation using mixed logit models.
In many applications of finance, biology and sociology, complex systems involve entities interacting with each other. These processes have the peculiarity of evolving over time and of comprising latent factors, which influence the system without being explicitly measured. In this work we present latent variable time-va…
One of the main computational and scientific challenges in the modern age is to extract useful information from unstructured texts. Topic models are one popular machine-learning approach which infers the latent topical structure of a collection of documents. Despite their success --- in particular of its most widely us…
A scalable Bayesian inference method for mixed-effects models in systems biology.
We consider the numerical stability of the parameter recovery problem in Linear Structural Equation Model ($\LSEM$) of causal inference. A long line of work starting from Wright (1920) has focused on understanding which sub-classes of $\LSEM$ allow for efficient parameter recovery. Despite decades of study, this questi…
Network science provides valuable insights across numerous disciplines including sociology, biology, neuroscience and engineering. A task of major practical importance in these application domains is inferring the network structure from noisy observations at a subset of nodes. Available methods for topology inference t…
Controversies around race and machine learning have sparked debate among computer scientists over how to design machine learning systems that guarantee fairness. These debates rarely engage with how racial identity is embedded in our social experience, making for sociological and psychological complexity. This complexi…
New approach simulates reputation dynamics using information compression.
Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation. Probability models on graphs dat…
Optimizes decisions in time-varying distributions using online stochastic methods and Wasserstein distance.
TGCN learns from multi-relational graphs, improving SSL performance.