A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improves CRRR for better mobility analysis with DCTM.
Optimizes treatment allocation using covariates for better outcomes.
ESOP uses Bayesian optimization to find optimal lock-down schedules.
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
Paper derives the maximum entropy characteristics of a rank order distribution for socio-economic applications.
The current economic crisis has provoked an active response from the interdisciplinary scientific community. As a result many papers suggesting what can be improved in understanding of the complex socio-economics systems were published. Some of the most prominent papers on the topic include (Bouchaud, 2009; Farmer and …
Life-expectancy is a complex outcome driven by genetic, socio-demographic, environmental and geographic factors. Increasing socio-economic and health disparities in the United States are propagating the longevity-gap, making it a cause for concern. Earlier studies have probed individual factors but an integrated pictur…
In statistical physics, the conservation of particle number results in the equalization of the chemical potential throughout a system at equilibrium. In contrast, the homogeneity of utility in socio-economic models is usually thought to rely on the competition between individuals, leading to Nash equilibrium. We show t…
Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini () index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata () index gives a measure of fraction of population who possess top fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the ch…
Socio-economic inequality is characterized from data using various indices. The Gini () index, giving the overall inequality is the most common one, while the recently introduced Kolkata () index gives a measure of fraction of population who possess top fraction of wealth in the society. Here, we show t…
What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we foc…
Socio-economic inequalities are manifested in different aspects of our social life. We discuss various aspects, beginning with the evolutionary and historical origins, and discussing the major issues from the social and economic point of view. The subject has attracted scholars from across various disciplines, includin…
Collective behavior of the complex socio-economic systems is heavily influenced by the herding, group, behavior of individuals. The importance of the herding behavior may enable the control of the collective behavior of the individuals. In this contribution we consider a simple agent-based herding model modified to inc…
The econophysics approach to socio-economic systems is based on the assumption of their complexity. Such assumption inevitably lead to another assumption, namely that underlying interconnections within socio-economic systems, particularly financial markets, are nonlinear, which is shown to be true even in mainstream ec…
Study uses Perelman and Ricci flow methods to analyze economic inequality.
Improves forecast calibration for extreme events using modified loss functions.
We investigate relationship between annual electric power consumption per capita and gross domestic production (GDP) per capita for 131 countries. We found that the relationship can be fitted with a power-law function. We examine the relationship for 47 prefectures in Japan. Furthermore, we investigate values of annual…
In this essay, I attempt to provide supporting evidence as well as some balance for the thesis on `Transforming socio-economics with a new epistemology' presented by Hollingworth and Mueller (2008). First, I review a personal highlight of my own scientific path that illustrates the power of interdisciplinarity as well …
Tax dynamics affects wealth distribution in a linearly growing socio-economic model.
In the same way as the Hilbert Program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics, this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent fina…
A brief overview of the models and data analyses of income, wealth, consumption distributions by the physicists, are presented here. It has been found empirically that the distributions of income and wealth possess fairly robust features, like the bulk of both the income and wealth distributions seem to reasonably fit …
New approach predicts crime and terrorism events with high accuracy and transparency.
New model predicts dynamic tax evasion with audits and imitation.
New measures and tests for high-order interactions in complex data.
Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models…
We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/ excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior an…
In this paper we introduce a simple model for a financial market characterized by a single stock or good and an interplay between two different traders populations, chartists and fundamentalists, which determine the price dynamic of the stock. The model has been inspired by the microscopic Lux-Marchesi model (T.Lux, M.…
Patterns of mobile phone communications, coupled with the information of the social network graph and financial behavior, allow us to make inferences of users' socio-economic attributes such as their income level. We present here several methods to extract features from mobile phone usage (calls and messages), and comp…
We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a singl…
We derive a system of stochastic differential equations simulating the dynamics of the three agent groups with herding interaction. Proposed approach can be valuable in the modeling of the complex socio-economic systems with similar composition of the agents. We demonstrate how the sophisticated statistical features of…
Deciding effective and timely preventive measures against complex social problems affecting relatively low income geographies is a difficult challenge. There is a strong need to adopt intelligent automation based solutions with low cost imprints to tackle these problems at larger scales. Starting with the hypothesis th…
Despite all our great advances in science, technology and financial innovations, many societies today are struggling with a financial, economic and public spending crisis, over-regulation, and mass unemployment, as well as lack of sustainability and innovation. Can we still rely on conventional economic thinking or do …
Our society has been computerised and globalised due to emergence and spread of information and communication technology (ICT). This enables us to investigate our own socio-economic systems based on large amounts of data on human activities. In this article, methods of treating complexity arising from a vast amount of …
In this paper we explore the specific role of randomness in financial markets, inspired by the beneficial role of noise in many physical systems and in previous applications to complex socio- economic systems. After a short introduction, we study the performance of some of the most used trading strategies in predicting…
Model uses GAMs to forecast hourly electricity load weeks to one year ahead.
We study consumption behaviour in systems with heterogeneous interacting agents. Two different models are introduced, respectively with long and short range interactions among agents. At any time step an agent decides whether or not to consume a good, doing so if this provides positive utility. Utility is affected by i…
We investigate hierarchical structure in various complex systems according to Minimum Spanning Tree methods. Firstly, we investigate stock markets where the graphis obtained from the matrix of correlations coefficient computed between all pairs of assets by considering the synchronous time evolution of the difference o…
In 2016, the majority of full-time employed women in the U.S. earned significantly less than comparable men. The extent to which women were affected by gender inequality in earnings, however, depended greatly on socio-economic characteristics, such as marital status or educational attainment. In this paper, we analyzed…
We analyze three sets of income data: the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics PSID), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). It is shown that the empirical income distribution is consistent with a two-parameter lognormal function for the low-middle income group (97%-99% of …
A technique from stochastic portfolio theory [Fernholz, 1998] is applied to analyse equity returns of Small, Mid and Large cap portfolios in an emerging market through periods of growth and regional crises, up to the onset of the global financial crisis. In particular, we factorize portfolios in the South African marke…
Paper simplifies balancing weights by relaxing outcome assumptions.
A method corrects bias in estimating a high-dimensional classification rule using auxiliary outcomes.
PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
Fuses ITRs for primary and secondary outcomes to minimize harm.
Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
Reduces variance in noisy social outcomes to improve policy evaluation and optimization.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
Proposes a deep learning framework for estimating counterfactual outcomes.