arXiv research

ESOP uses Bayesian optimization to find optimal lock-down schedules.

Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.

The current economic crisis has provoked an active response from the interdisciplinary scientific community. As a result many papers suggesting what can be improved in understanding of the complex socio-economics systems were published. Some of the most prominent papers on the topic include (Bouchaud, 2009; Farmer and …

In statistical physics, the conservation of particle number results in the equalization of the chemical potential throughout a system at equilibrium. In contrast, the homogeneity of utility in socio-economic models is usually thought to rely on the competition between individuals, leading to Nash equilibrium. We show t…

Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini ($g$) index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata ($k$) index gives a measure of $1-k$ fraction of population who possess top $k$ fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the ch…

Socio-economic inequality is characterized from data using various indices. The Gini ($g$) index, giving the overall inequality is the most common one, while the recently introduced Kolkata ($k$) index gives a measure of $1-k$ fraction of population who possess top $k$ fraction of wealth in the society. Here, we show t…

What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we foc…

Socio-economic inequalities are manifested in different aspects of our social life. We discuss various aspects, beginning with the evolutionary and historical origins, and discussing the major issues from the social and economic point of view. The subject has attracted scholars from across various disciplines, includin…

Collective behavior of the complex socio-economic systems is heavily influenced by the herding, group, behavior of individuals. The importance of the herding behavior may enable the control of the collective behavior of the individuals. In this contribution we consider a simple agent-based herding model modified to inc…

In this paper we derive the maximum entropy characteristics of a particular rank order distribution, namely the discrete generalized beta distribution, which has recently been observed to be extremely useful in modelling many several rank-size distributions from different context in Arts and Sciences, as a two-paramete…

The econophysics approach to socio-economic systems is based on the assumption of their complexity. Such assumption inevitably lead to another assumption, namely that underlying interconnections within socio-economic systems, particularly financial markets, are nonlinear, which is shown to be true even in mainstream ec…

Study uses Perelman and Ricci flow methods to analyze economic inequality.

We investigate relationship between annual electric power consumption per capita and gross domestic production (GDP) per capita for 131 countries. We found that the relationship can be fitted with a power-law function. We examine the relationship for 47 prefectures in Japan. Furthermore, we investigate values of annual…

In this essay, I attempt to provide supporting evidence as well as some balance for the thesis on `Transforming socio-economics with a new epistemology' presented by Hollingworth and Mueller (2008). First, I review a personal highlight of my own scientific path that illustrates the power of interdisciplinarity as well …

Tax dynamics affects wealth distribution in a linearly growing socio-economic model.

In the same way as the Hilbert Program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics, this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent fina…

A brief overview of the models and data analyses of income, wealth, consumption distributions by the physicists, are presented here. It has been found empirically that the distributions of income and wealth possess fairly robust features, like the bulk of both the income and wealth distributions seem to reasonably fit …

New measures and tests for high-order interactions in complex data.

Improves CRRR for better mobility analysis with DCTM.

Life-expectancy is a complex outcome driven by genetic, socio-demographic, environmental and geographic factors. Increasing socio-economic and health disparities in the United States are propagating the longevity-gap, making it a cause for concern. Earlier studies have probed individual factors but an integrated pictur…

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models…

We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/ excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior an…

In this paper we introduce a simple model for a financial market characterized by a single stock or good and an interplay between two different traders populations, chartists and fundamentalists, which determine the price dynamic of the stock. The model has been inspired by the microscopic Lux-Marchesi model (T.Lux, M.…

Patterns of mobile phone communications, coupled with the information of the social network graph and financial behavior, allow us to make inferences of users' socio-economic attributes such as their income level. We present here several methods to extract features from mobile phone usage (calls and messages), and comp…

Optimizes treatment allocation using covariates for better outcomes.

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a singl…

We derive a system of stochastic differential equations simulating the dynamics of the three agent groups with herding interaction. Proposed approach can be valuable in the modeling of the complex socio-economic systems with similar composition of the agents. We demonstrate how the sophisticated statistical features of…

Deciding effective and timely preventive measures against complex social problems affecting relatively low income geographies is a difficult challenge. There is a strong need to adopt intelligent automation based solutions with low cost imprints to tackle these problems at larger scales. Starting with the hypothesis th…

Large-scale trends in urban crime and global terrorism are well-predicted by socio-economic drivers, but focused, event-level predictions have had limited success. Standard machine learning approaches are promising, but lack interpretability, are generally interpolative, and ineffective for precise future interventions…

Our society has been computerised and globalised due to emergence and spread of information and communication technology (ICT). This enables us to investigate our own socio-economic systems based on large amounts of data on human activities. In this article, methods of treating complexity arising from a vast amount of …

In this paper we explore the specific role of randomness in financial markets, inspired by the beneficial role of noise in many physical systems and in previous applications to complex socio- economic systems. After a short introduction, we study the performance of some of the most used trading strategies in predicting…

Model uses GAMs to forecast hourly electricity load weeks to one year ahead.

We study consumption behaviour in systems with heterogeneous interacting agents. Two different models are introduced, respectively with long and short range interactions among agents. At any time step an agent decides whether or not to consume a good, doing so if this provides positive utility. Utility is affected by i…

We investigate hierarchical structure in various complex systems according to Minimum Spanning Tree methods. Firstly, we investigate stock markets where the graphis obtained from the matrix of correlations coefficient computed between all pairs of assets by considering the synchronous time evolution of the difference o…

In 2016, the majority of full-time employed women in the U.S. earned significantly less than comparable men. The extent to which women were affected by gender inequality in earnings, however, depended greatly on socio-economic characteristics, such as marital status or educational attainment. In this paper, we analyzed…

We analyze three sets of income data: the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics PSID), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). It is shown that the empirical income distribution is consistent with a two-parameter lognormal function for the low-middle income group (97%-99% of …

A technique from stochastic portfolio theory [Fernholz, 1998] is applied to analyse equity returns of Small, Mid and Large cap portfolios in an emerging market through periods of growth and regional crises, up to the onset of the global financial crisis. In particular, we factorize portfolios in the South African marke…

We provide an analytically treatable model that describes in a unified manner income distribution for all income categories. The approach is based on a master equation with growth and reset terms. The model assumptions on the growth and reset rates are tested on an exhaustive database with incomes on individual level s…

Quantifying the importance and power of individual nodes depending on their position in socio-economic networks constitutes a problem across a variety of applications. Examples include the reach of individuals in (online) social networks, the importance of individual banks or loans in financial networks, the relevance …

Among American women, the rate of breast cancer is only second to lung cancer. An estimated 12.4% women will develop breast cancer over the course of their lifetime. The widespread use of social media across the socio-economic spectrum offers unparalleled ways to facilitate information sharing, in particular as it pert…

I propose a frequency domain adaptation of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to group a family of time series in classes of similar dynamic structure. It does this by viewing the magnitude of the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) of each signal (or power spectrum) as a probability density/mass function (pdf/pm…

Detecting and mapping informal settlements encompasses several of the United Nations sustainable development goals. This is because informal settlements are home to the most socially and economically vulnerable people on the planet. Thus, understanding where these settlements are is of paramount importance to both gove…

New STH distance finds patterns in event timeseries without resampling.

In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce…

Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions. It is shown here that the fundamental postulates of this theory are contradicted …

A characteristic feature of complex systems in general is a tight coupling between their constituent parts. In complex socio-economic systems this kind of behavior leads to self-organization, which may be both desirable (e.g. social cooperation) and undesirable (e.g. mass panic, financial "bubbles" or "crashes"). Abund…

We use the Minority Game as a testing frame for the problem of the emergence of diversity in socio-economic systems. For the MG with heterogeneous impacts, we show that the direct generalization of the usual agents' profit does not fit some real-world situations. As a typical example we use the traffic formulation of t…

We present a preferential attachment growth model to obtain the distribution $P(K)$ of number of units $K$ in the classes which may represent business firms or other socio-economic entities. We found that $P(K)$ is described in its central part by a power law with an exponent $φ=2+b/(1-b)$ which depends on the probabil…