Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

71142213284 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for signal validation

The paper develops a cross-validation method for improving signal denoising techniques.

problem Improving signal denoising methods for nonparametric regression.
method Develops a general cross-validation framework for signal denoising and applies it to Trend Filtering and Dyadic CART.
result Cross validated versions of Trend Filtering and Dyadic CART achieve nearly optimal convergence rates.

A blindfolded LLM trading framework validates market signals without ticker memorization.

problem Ensuring LLMs trade based on genuine market understanding, not memorized data.
method Anonymize tickers and company names, verify signals through reasoning embeddings, and use PPO-DSR policy.
result Achieved Sharpe ratio of 1.40 +/- 0.22 across 20 seeds, robust in volatile markets.

Develops a validated trading framework for market microstructure signals.

problem Overfitting and lookahead bias in algorithmic trading.
method Interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation, reinforcement learning, strict out-of-sample testing.
result Modest annualized returns with strong downside protection and market-neutral characteristics.

Optimizes signal detection in particle physics by decorrelating classifiers.

problem Systematic errors in background models can mislead signal detection.
method Use optimal transport to decorrelate classifiers from protected variables, then apply semiparametric mixture model.
result Decorrelation and signal enrichment improve the stability, robustness, and power of signal detection tests.

Study finds no statistically significant trading edge in MNQ futures signals from OHLCV data.

problem Testing intraday momentum signals from OHLCV data in MNQ futures under realistic execution constraints.
method 947 trading days of five-minute data, 14 signal families evaluated, strict institutional criteria applied.
result No signal satisfies all criteria simultaneously, gross edge insufficient to overcome costs.

The paper shows that causal identification is not essential for efficient portfolios, focusing on geometric sufficiency conditions.

problem The necessity of causal identification for efficient portfolios.
method Re-examination of predictive signals and their impact on portfolio efficiency under structural misspecification.
result Efficiency is governed by geometric sufficiency conditions (directional alignment, ranking preservation, and calibration) rather than causal identification.

We consider the problem of signal recovery on graphs as graphs model data with complex structure as signals on a graph. Graph signal recovery implies recovery of one or multiple smooth graph signals from noisy, corrupted, or incomplete measurements. We propose a graph signal model and formulate signal recovery as a cor…

2014-11-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on signal-plus-noise decomposition in nonlinear spiked random matrices.

problem Nonlinear spiked random matrix models with rank-one signal and noise.
method Signal-plus-noise decomposition and phase transition analysis.
result Identified precise phase transitions in signal components at critical thresholds.

New framework models graph signals as distribution-valued signals in Wasserstein space.

problem Limitations of classical vector-based GSP, including synchronous observations and uncertainty.
method Introduces graph distribution-valued signals (GDSs) in the Wasserstein space.
result GDSs naturally encode uncertainty and stochasticity, generalizing traditional graph signals.

This work improves safety validation of autonomous vehicles by finding interpretable failures.

problem Finding interpretable failures of autonomous systems in simulation.
method Signal temporal logic expressions optimized for high likelihood and human interpretability.
result Our methodology finds more interpretable failures with higher likelihood compared to baseline approaches.

Conformal prediction improves signal detection accuracy in railway images.

problem Improving the reliability of machine learning models for railway signal detection.
method Applying conformal prediction to a novel dataset of train operator perspective images.
result The approach enhances the reliability of machine learning models for detecting railway signals.

The paper validates a classifier for identifying intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.

problem Developing reliable trading signals from intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
method Constructed a composite day-classification system using three observable conditions.
result Classifier-positive days exhibit distinct intraday behavior but fail to generate profitable trading signals.

Framework for causal signals in non-stationary financial markets.

problem Constructing causal signals in non-stationary financial time series.
method Combines normalized indicators and causally computed derivatives, with hysteresis-based decision mapping.
result Demonstrates risk-reshaping effect with smoother trajectories and reduced drawdowns.

The aim of this paper is to propose distributed strategies for adaptive learning of signals defined over graphs. Assuming the graph signal to be bandlimited, the method enables distributed reconstruction, with guaranteed performance in terms of mean-square error, and tracking from a limited number of sampled observatio…

2016-09-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Coherent Multiplex analyzes real-time wavelet coherence among multiple signals.

problem Identifying and visualizing coherence among multiple time series.
method Fast spectral similarity based on cosine similarity metrics of Fourier-transformed signals and sparse time-frequency wavelet coherence.
result Scalable real-time system for low-latency inference and monitoring of inter-signal relationships.

We build a rigorous bridge between deep networks (DNs) and approximation theory via spline functions and operators. Our key result is that a large class of DNs can be written as a composition of max-affine spline operators (MASOs), which provide a powerful portal through which to view and analyze their inner workings. …

2018-05-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper improves signal proportion estimation by accounting for variable dependence.

problem Traditional estimators assume independence, limiting applicability in real-world scenarios.
method Integrates arbitrary covariance dependence information using principal factor approximation.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art estimators in accuracy and detection of weaker signals.

Paper develops an AI-driven framework for systematic investing.

problem Manual prompts limit model adaptability and data snooping biases.
method Closed-loop system with self-evolving AI, out-of-sample validation, and economic rationale.
result Long-short portfolios on factor signals outperform with Sharpe ratio 3.11 and return 59.53%.

This research improves asset life prediction by integrating deep learning with mixture distributions.

problem Predicting residual useful life for assets with multiple failure modes.
method Integrates mixture (log)-location-scale distribution with deep learning.
result Proposed models outperform existing methods in predicting residual useful life.

Proposes a deep multi-scale neural network for EEG signal representation learning.

problem Capturing multi-frequency properties in EEG signals for better brain-computer interface.
method A novel deep multi-scale neural network that discovers feature representations in multiple frequency/time ranges and extracts spatial relationships.
result Improved performance in various active/passive BCI datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Bayesian priors improve neural network performance on weak signals.

problem Challenges in encoding domain knowledge for weak signals in neural networks.
method Proposed a new joint prior over local scale parameters for feature sparsity and signal-to-noise ratio, optimized with Stein gradient.
result Improved prediction accuracy on various datasets, including genetics applications with weak and sparse signals.

Matched filters reveal optimal normalization methods for different market participants.

problem Optimizing signal extraction from order flow for market microstructure analysis.
method General matched filter principle applied to normalization strategies.
result Optimal normalization methods (e.g., SMCS^{MC} and STVS^{TV}) differ based on trader types.

New method detects change points in quasi-periodic signals without supervision.

problem Detecting change points in complex, non-harmonic signals.
method Optimal transport theory, topological analysis, bootstrap procedure.
result Successfully detects abnormal cardiac cycles in various arrhythmias.

Models with many signals, high-dimensional models, often impose structures on the signal strengths. The common assumption is that only a few signals are strong and most of the signals are zero or close (collectively) to zero. However, such a requirement might not be valid in many real-life applications. In this article…

2017-08-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Self-training in linear models shows a U-shaped test-risk curve due to signal forgetting and denoising.

problem Understanding the dynamics of iterative self-training in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Derivation of deterministic-equivalent recursions for prediction risk and effective noise, analysis of signal forgetting and denoising effects.
result An optimal early-stopping time is determined, and a U-shaped test-risk curve is observed.

We consider the problem of reconstructing a signal from under-determined modulo observations (or measurements). This observation model is inspired by a (relatively) less well-known imaging mechanism called modulo imaging, which can be used to extend the dynamic range of imaging systems; variations of this model have al…

2018-12-03abs ↗pdf ↗

PHASE predicts surgical complications from physiological signals.

problem Predicting adverse surgical outcomes from physiological signals.
method Self-supervised transfer learning for physiological signals.
result PHASE outperforms other approaches in predicting five surgical complications.

AI-driven investment strategies self-defeat at scale due to signal crowding and erosion.

problem Excess returns from AI-driven investment strategies diminish at scale due to signal crowding and erosion.
method Theoretical model and empirical validation using SEC Form 13F filings and hedge fund return dynamics.
result The alpha half-life of signals decreases significantly with AI adoption, leading to diminishing returns.

We propose Gaussian processes for signals over graphs (GPG) using the apriori knowledge that the target vectors lie over a graph. We incorporate this information using a graph- Laplacian based regularization which enforces the target vectors to have a specific profile in terms of graph Fourier transform coeffcients, fo…

2018-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

In many signal processing problems, it may be fruitful to represent the signal under study in a frame. If a probabilistic approach is adopted, it becomes then necessary to estimate the hyper-parameters characterizing the probability distribution of the frame coefficients. This problem is difficult since in general the …

2009-11-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep generative models have been successfully used to learn representations for high-dimensional discrete spaces by representing discrete objects as sequences and employing powerful sequence-based deep models. Unfortunately, these sequence-based models often produce invalid sequences: sequences which do not represent a…

2017-12-05abs ↗pdf ↗